Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Anthony Richardson

Anthony Richardson | Syndication: The Indianapolis Star

Russ Fisher Posted On June 6, 2024

Is it better to know or not to know? Is ignorance bliss? Is it truly better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all? I have absolutely no idea but those are much deeper ways of asking an intriguing question about valuing players in fantasy football. When we talk about rookies coming into the NFL, most of our expectations are pure conjecture. We have seen them play in college, they were drafted into the NFL at specific spots in the draft, and some players fit better in certain team schemes than others and then we use this information to assign a value to players. All of these months (or years if you play in devy leagues) of assumed value can be torn to shreds with one game on the NFL field.

In 2023, Puka Nacua was taken 177th overall in the NFL Draft by the Los Angeles Rams and was being drafted in the fourth round of superflex rookie drafts. Within two games he was being traded for 2024 first-round rookie picks. By the end of the season, he was being valued as a top seven dynasty wide receiver. Treylon Burks was drafted 18th overall by the Tennessee Titans in 2022 and was being drafted in the earlier side of the first round of superflex rookie drafts. While it always takes a little longer for value to decrease than to increase, by the end of the season Burks was being traded for value less than a 2023 first-round rookie pick.

Coming into the league, Anthony Richardson was seen as a mobile quarterback with less-than-ideal passing statistics. He was drafted fourth overall by the Indianapolis Colts in 2023 and was being drafted second overall in many superflex rookie drafts. Even with his questions passing ability, the fantasy community knew that Richardson would walk onto the field as the day one starter for the Colts, we saw the team’s dedication and value to him by picking him at such an early spot, and we knew that his rushing ability gave him an immense fantasy ceiling and very safe floor.

Now is when the story gets a little unclear and more complicated than the players in the prior stories. In the second game of the season, Richardson suffered a concussion and then missed week three. One and a half games later, our subject quarterback injured his throwing shoulder and missed the rest of the season. In the games we saw him play more than half of the game he averaged about 26 points per game. If he were able to sustain this the entire season that would put him at QB3 in points per game.

What do we do now? Is two and a half games enough to change our minds? Should we adjust our value based on that small sample size? And if we raise his value, just how much? Do we believe he could hold that level of production for the entire season? There is no way to know. Would we have been better off just not having seen him play at all last year? At least that way we wouldn’t have to challenge our thinking on such a small amount of time on the field. We would still hold our preconceived assumptions and not have to factor in incomplete information and a new injury to his throwing shoulder.

There is a very good chance you read all of that and thought: “Wow Russ, you really overthink this.” and I would say something snarky like: “Have you met me?!”. Having a glimpse of greatness makes it so much harder to see what the true reality will most likely be. There is absolutely a chance Richardson is just that good and will be a top three dynasty quarterback but it is much more likely that reality lies somewhere in the middle of greatness and worthlessness.

So what do we do with Richardson in our leagues? As always the value of a player is what people are willing to pay in your leagues. Is the price on him at a place where it is worth taking the gamble that he might be great? Are prices already so high that he would need to be a top-three quarterback to pay off the price? That is where the fun begins! Let’s go to the DLF Trade Finder and Trade Analyzer and look at some real-life trades and the values they bring.

12 team superflex PPR TE premium start 10.

I have always been a big fan of Garrett Wilson. I was less than thrilled when he ended up being drafted by the New York Jets and then crushed when Aaron Rodgers got hurt almost immediately last season leaving Wilson with another year of subpar passes. Even with that less-than-stellar situation he has produced well and has earned the most targets by any player in the first two seasons of their career.

Honestly, I was never that big of a Richardson fan. His price was always a little too high for me to think he was worth the risk even though I do agree that his ceiling can put him as a top three QB. That being said, I would trade away Wilson and a future second-round rookie pick to take that chance on Richardson. I love the respect the Trade Analyzer has for Wilson but look at the disparity in their ADPs, 8.75 to 24.75. If Richardson has a mediocre showing and finishes as a top 15 quarterback I think he will hold his value over Wilson unless Wilson finishes the season as a top three wide receiver.

12 team superflex PPR TE premium start 10.

Here is where all of the questions asked at the beginning of this article come into play. In most superflex rookie drafts this comes down to Anthony Richardson for Jayden Daniels. Daniels is coming into the league with a very similar story to Richardson except his passing stats are much better. Do you believe in what we saw from Richardson enough to give up the better prospect? The rest of the picks in this deal aren’t enough to sway me in either direction so this trade really comes down to the two young quarterbacks. I would take this reroll into the rookie and back Daniels. I like the player more and while I like the Colts’ situation better than the Commanders’, I like Daniels enough to make that move.

12 team superflex PPR start 10.

We have hit the ceiling. Lamar Jackson is QB5 in DLF May 2024 superflex ADP, fifth player overall. Sure you are getting five years back but does that really matter when we are talking about a 27-year-old quarterback? I don’t think so. For this trade to pay off Richardson needs to produce like a top-five quarterback and maintain that dynasty value. That is a lot to ask. If I were a rebuilding team and wanted to trade Jackson away to tier down and gain extra assets the second piece in the trade would have to be immensely better. If you take away the pick, the Trade Analyzer suggests TJ Hockenson, Xavier Worthy, or George Pickens. Needless to say, those players are much more valuable than the 2.07.

If you believe in the multiverse then there are universes where Anthony Richardson is a top-tier, mediocre, and terrible fantasy quarterback, the problem is we don’t really know which of those universes we live in. If you already believed in Richardson then I would imagine those few snaps we saw of him on the field have boosted your confidence. If you already weren’t a fan I would guess they didn’t prove much to you. But as usual, regardless of which universe we live in, if the trade value is right then it is worth the risk to hit the ceiling.

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Russ Fisher

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Russ likes to trade and Russ likes to talk. He pulls them both together into many dynasty/trade related podcasts. He has been playing fantasy football for 16 years and dynasty for 5. He spends too much time on Twitter and is always around to talk trades whenever you need!