2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Bust Mock Draft
The rookie bust mock draft is one of our favorite things to do at DLF each year. This unique draft is designed to show who we think has the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP. We drafted one player at a time and anyone at DLF could jump in (they just couldn’t go back-to-back with their picks). The top selection was the player in the top 24 who they believed carries the single greatest amount of risk. In other words, they have the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP. In other words, the last player taken is the safest and the first carries the most risk. All players had to be taken off our list of the top 24 rookie, so that’s as follows:
Bijan Robinson
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jahmyr Gibbs
Jordan Addison
Quentin Johnston
Zay Flowers
Devon Achane
Zach Charbonnet
Dalton Kincaid
Anthony Richardson
Josh Downs
Kendre Miller
Michael Mayer
Marvin Mims
Rashee Rice
Bryce Young
Jonathan Mingo
Roschon Johnson
Jalin Hyatt
CJ Stroud
Tyjae Spears
Sam LaPorta
Jayden Reed
Cedric Tillman
Here we go! These are the results of our draft, with comments made by the representative of DLF who made each selection.
1.01 – Anthony Richardson, QB IND
“I’ve said it before. His floor reaches the depths of hell and his ceiling is higher than the heavens. He could be the next Jalen Hurts…but he could also be out of the league in four years.”
1.02 – Tyjae Spears, RB TEN
“Love the talent and like the landing spot but the injury concerns are serious. There is a real chance he is done in the NFL before his career truly gets going.”
1.03 – Jonathan Mingo, WR CAR
“Has the double whammy of having a poor production profile along with a rather poor film profile. He wins best on one cut routes with athleticism but I have questions about him consistently winning at the intermediate level without crisper routes.”
1.04 – Zach Charbonnet, RB SEA
“It’s pretty uncommon to use this kind of rookie draft capital to take a running back who is widely regarded as a backup behind a young stud.”
1.05 – Jalin Hyatt, WR NYG
“Hyatt comes from a gimmicky college offense and doesn’t have the size to compete in the NFL. The league showed us what they thought of him as he slipped down to the WR10 in the draft…we haven’t even mentioned the crowded wide receiver competition in New York.”
1.06 – Rashee Rice, WR KC
“Give me a reason he’s this high without saying Patrick Mahomes. You can’t because there’s no other reason. Did we learn nothing from elevating Skyy Moore?”
1.07 – Quentin Johnston, WR LAC
“Impeccable value here in a bust draft for a receiver who just doesn’t look to live up to the hype as a prospect. He has drop issues, overall production issues, is a big bodied WR who doesn’t play to his size, and the landing spot seems great with Justin Herbert, but he could realistically just be the third option on the team for a couple years and never grow into anything more. I comped him to Breshad Perriman as a prospect, and it’s very realistic he follows that same career path and is a very disappointing pick for anyone in the late first round.”
1.08 – Bryce Young, QB CAR
“Even at his combine-water-inflated 204 lbs, he’s the lightest first round QB in 20 years. Kyler Murray is downright “stocky” compared to Young, and he hasn’t been able to finish the last two seasons and will miss games to start 2023 as well. There’s no way Young can hold up to the physical rigors of a 17-game NFL season.”
1.09 – Dalton Kincaid, TE BUF
“Truly elite tight ends make a difference. Good tight ends aren’t worth this kind of draft capital. Color me skeptical.”
1.10 – Devon Achane, RB MIA
“Leading up to the draft, the discourse surrounding Achane was always, “Running backs below 200 pounds never work out but here’s why the 185 lb Achane is different!” Now he’s found himself sneaking into the end of the first round. History tells us he could struggle at this size.”
1.11 – Marvin Mims, WR DEN
“Smaller receiver who thrives in college going deep. We’ve seen plenty of these drafted on day two over the past few years bust in the NFL. Throw in the fact he could be the fifth option in the receiving game behind Jeudy, Sutton, Patrick and Dulcich and this seems like a solid choice in the middle of this exercise.”
1.12 – Josh Downs, WR IND
“There is no disputing his ability to catch the ball but he is completely non-existent in the running game. The man has not thrown a block in his entire college career and I can see that easily frustrating a coach and causing him to lose snaps. He’s not good enough to overcome that. And I believe that is the reason he fell so far.”
2.01 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET
“I don’t think it’s going to happen, but the bust potential is absolutely there with Gibbs’ massive draft capital. Running backs of his size have struggled to have success in the NFL, regardless of where they were drafted. It’s not a sure thing he hits, and you’ll need to take him in the first three picks of rookie drafts.”
2.02 – Kendre Miller, RB NO
“I like Miller, but thought it was more likely we saw him come off the board by early day three. Instead, he goes on day two to the Saints and it seems that has played into his rookie draft positioning. Prior to his landing spot, he was an early third round pick in pre-draft mocks. I like the player, but I don’t think the situation is as enticing as it seems. Jamaal Williams was signed to be the thumper and provide insurance for Kamara in case he is suspended for the start of 2023. Miller is at best the third string running back on the depth chart and will need some luck to get an opportunity.”
2.03 – Jayden Reed, WR GB
“His athletic profile screams ordinary. Doubs and Watson are 1-2 and Love is unproven. The draft capital is acceptable in a rookie draft and that makes him safer than most, but I just don’t see anything special.”
2.04 – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA
“He was the first wide receiver off the board and had an incredible season in 2021, but there are some things we can nitpick here. He was a college one-hit wonder. He’s coming off of an injury. He slipped further in the first round than anyone expected. He’ll play behind two very good wide receivers to start off. The quarterback position in Seattle is questionable long-term. I love JSN, but the draft didn’t do him any favors.”
2.05 – Cedric Tillman, WR CLE
“In a draft full of smaller wideouts, Tillman brought size and length to the class. His running mate, Jalen Hyatt, was projected to go nearly two rounds before him, but ended up going one pick before in round three. Tillman steps in a situation where it is quite feasible he could play his way into a contributing role. The Browns are shifting to a more pass-centered offense as they look to build around their 230 million dollar man in DeShaun Watson. He’ll have to compete with DPJ and Elijah Moore on the depth chart, but neither of them have a solidified role yet. It’s also possible Tillman is better than both of his competition. We’re getting to some safer picks now.”
2.06 – Roschon Johnson, RB CHI
“I don’t see him just coming in and winning the job over Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman but I do think Johnson has a lot of tread on his tires and we really don’t know what his full potential is. He could still emerge and second round picks are usually dart throws. I like his upside, I like the draft capital, but I think there are still a few safer picks out there.”
2.07 – Zay Flowers, WR BAL
“Flowers is an incredibly talented wide receiver who has some unique abilities to help him overcome his small size. The vibes for the Baltimore offense are very good, and he has a chance to be the best wide receiver on this team.”
2.08 – Sam LaPorta, TE DET
Tight end is a difficult position to predict transition to the NFL. It is the hardest position to learn and players tend to take time to develop. Predicting the player that will learn the nuances of the position is tough and LaPorta could easily disappoint. Still, the Lions have a gaping hole at the spot and he’ll get his chances.”
2.09 – Jordan Addison, WR MIN
“He’s one of the safer picks this year. While his ceiling is likely going to capped by the presence of Justin Jefferson, we’ve seen Adam Thielen thrive in that spot before. He’ll compete with KJ Osborn early but should be a weekly flex play at worst from day one. He’s not the safest pick in the draft, but it’s close.”
2.10 – CJ Stroud, QB HOU
“This isn’t a knock on the talent or the physical skills. It’s more geared towards an inept franchise. Looking around the offense and there is a lack of talent at almost every position. Is it possible that we see a change with a new HC? Or does meddling from the owners continue to set things back? Trading away what might possibly be a top five pick next year for Will Anderson might continue to limit the Texans from surrounding Stroud with playmakers. I’ll swing for the fences with Richardson or wait till next year if targeting a quarterback. However, if you want to play it safe with a signal caller this year, he’s likely your guy.”
2.11 – Michael Mayer, TE LV
“It’s still surprising Mayer was taken behind Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta but this was a great landing spot for him with the Raiders. Jimmy Garoppolo made use of George Kittle and Mayer is going to step in and produce right away in an effort to replace Darren Waller. Yes, they have OJ Howard and Austin Hooper but neither of them has the skill set of Mayer. Getting him in round two is about as safe as you can get.”
2.12 – Bijan Robinson, RB ATL
“You could say he has the most risk because he’s the overwhelming favorite to go first overall. However, few running backs have ever come into the league with a skillset like this and for a running back to be taken in the top eight of a draft to a team with myriad needs says a lot about his talent. He’s going to be used early and often and while there’s always a chance he’ll bust, I can’t imagine that’s for any reason other than some kind of unfortunate injury.”
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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