Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Garrett Wilson
When trying to figure out a player’s trade value the “here and now” is very important. How is the player producing on the field? What is their current contract situation? What competition do they have at their position? What team do they plan on? Is the player healthy? But the past and the future can’t be ignored when putting value together. How did they play last season? What was the situation when they scored the points they did? What will the team look like next year? What will the team do in the draft? The more I type the more confusing this sounds. This is one of the reasons the DLF Trade Analyzer is so wonderful! It does all of this work for you and puts all of this information into a nice, easy number.
Even with the amazing Trade Analyzer and its digestible graphs and tables, we are still only looking at a snapshot of a player’s value. While DLF employs some of the brightest and most brilliant minds in the dynasty community, they cannot see the future… yet! Since we cannot see future value, we will look into the past.
The fantasy football season ended on January 3rd. For the teams that did not make the playoffs, there isn’t too much that could happen. Sure, coaches or coordinators can be changed out but not in our case today. I went and looked to see who had the largest change in value from the end of the fantasy season until today and honestly, I was a little surprised that the answer was…
Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ
I happen to be a big Wilson fan so I was glad to see that it was an increase in value, not a decrease. In case you are curious, the largest decrease in value was Kyler Murray, closely followed by our wide receiver’s teammate Zach Wilson.
Garrett Wilson ended the season ranking as the 16th most valuable wide receiver sandwiched between Drake London and Michael Pittman. Today, Wilson stands as the eighth most valuable wide receiver, sliding in between Amon-Ra St. Brown and Stefon Diggs. Even if we didn’t know what wide receiver number Wilson was ranked at, just hearing those surrounding names would give us enough of a feeling of a value increase.
First we will look at some older trades and then we will look at some more recent trades and see if this trend is being reflected in our leagues.
Trade values: Rhamondre Stevenson 311.75 for Garrett Wilson 426.85
Trade values: Joe Mixon 367.14, Samaje Perine 14.83, Gerald Everett 39.26, 2024 round three draft pick 32.40 for Garrett Wilson 426.85
Even with Wilson’s value being higher in the analyzer, we are seeing a few trades like this from mid-December all the way through the end of the fantasy season. Another running back our wide receiver was traded for was Alvin Kamara, who came in the analyzer at 351.46. Let this be a lesson to all teams who are not in the playoffs; offer your running backs to other teams for their young wide receivers.
Moving a bit into the future, we have another trade for a running back but this trade definitely looks a little different than those older ones.
D’Andre Swift is definitely a tier above the aforementioned running backs and yet even adding a mid-second rookie pick doesn’t catch up to the value of our man. I think this would be seen as a very strong offer in most leagues. Just finishing up his third season, Swift still holds value on the hope of his potential being unlocked. Wilson, however, has shown he can score fantasy points with quarterbacks like Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, and Mike White. Potential is nice but scoring points is nicer. Scoring points while still having the potential to score more points is even nicer!
There is a lot to sink in here with this trade; multiple players, multiple positions, multiple age groups. The thing I am noticing most is that we have found another trade where the side having Garrett Wilson is the higher side in the analyzer. Taking a step back and thinking about this trade, yes, Christian McCaffrey is the most valuable player and there is a quarterback being sent away without one coming back. Usually, when this is the case, an overpay is expected but the analyzer is telling us that this is the difference of a 2024 first-round draft pick. That is a strong overpay especially when you are taking age and time of year into account.
We know what Wilson’s value is. We now have seen trades done in the past three weeks where it looks like he might still be a little undervalued. To finish out this exercise, we have to think about the questions in the future.
What will the team look like next year? The Jets made a statement when they benched quarterback Zach Wilson. Do you think this means they will draft a quarterback? Sign a free agent? Or do they go ahead with someone on their roster? What will the Jets do in the draft? This question is leaning more towards asking if you think the team will bring in more players of the same position. After two years of drafting Elijah Moore and Wilson, and having success with their signing of Corey Davis, do you think it is likely that they spend valuable draft capital to bring in another wide receiver? Do you think that wide receiver will be a threat to Wilson’s workload? Unfortunately, I can’t answer these questions for you. Personally, I am kicking the tires on some offers to see if I can get Garrett Wilson on my teams for these prices. But what about you?
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