Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades

Taking advantage of potential valuation trends in the trade market is imperative. That is even more true during the season when players can experience wild valuation changes on a week-to-week basis. Each week, I will be highlighting some players you should be looking to move or acquire and the reasons why.

Buy – Sam Howell, QB WAS

This is mainly a player to target in superflex leagues. However, Howell could also work in one quarterback league. In his one game last year, he rushed for 35 rushing yards. That feels like his floor for rushing production this year. If he averages 35 yards per game, that would put him at just shy of 600 yards for the season. The list of quarterbacks last year who finished with over 600 rushing yards: Justin Fields, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Daniel Jones. Four of those players finished in the top ten at the position, and Lamar Jackson missed out due to only playing 12 games but averaged over 20 fantasy points per game.

The Commanders seem determined to allow Howell to start all year. If that happens with his rushing production, he will be a fringe top-12 quarterback. He is currently the QB27 in ADP and can be acquired for around a future second-round pick. That cost is worth it for his 2022 production alone. If he wins the starting job in the longer term, you’ll see a massive return on your investment.

Buy – Cooper Kupp, WR LAR

Kupp is a fantasy cheat code. Since the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford, Kupp has put together a stretch of play that has been unparalleled in history. He had a stretch of 21 straight games producing over 15 points. No wide receiver or running back has ever had a stretch of more than 15 games hitting that threshold. GMs currently rostering Kupp are probably starting to panic. Contending teams may be worried about rostering a 30-year-old receiver who is carrying an injury. However, with that worry comes a price reduction. Furthermore, if you’re a true contender in a dynasty, you should be good enough to make the playoffs without a wide receiver.

If you can acquire Kupp while his price is reduced, you may have a superstar on the cheap when he hopefully returns fully healthy in a couple of weeks.

Sell – Davante Adams, WR LV

Anytime a wide receiver over the age of 30 is being drafted in the first three rounds of a startup, it’s concerning. Add in the fact that he is on a Raiders team that could disappoint and enter a rebuild by the end of the season, and that concern increases. Adams is an incredible player, but even if he produces an elite top-five season, it is hard to see his value increasing from his current WR16 ADP. Unless you’re a true contender, you need to be moving on now. Even as a genuine contender, I’d be looking to pivot to another player and buy back some years. Any future first would be enough for me to part with the superstar receiver, but given people’s propensity to turn dynasty into redraft early in the season, I think you can get more than that right now.

Sell – Austin Ekeler, RB LAC

I am excited about what the addition of Kellen Moore as a play-caller will do for the Charger’s offense. However, a big part of that excitement is the hope that Justin Herbert will take more risks and push the ball downfield at a higher rate, reducing the number of check-downs.

That potential reduction in check-downs is where Ekeler walks in. Having seen a mammoth 221 targets in the past two seasons combined and a reduction in the receiving game could have a significant impact on the fantasy output of Ekeler. He is also a candidate for TD regression, having scored 38 touchdowns during those two years. He is also 28 years old and approaching that running back age cliff very fast. Currently held up as an elite running back at RB7 in ADP, the days of consistent elite fantasy production could be behind him, and therefore, now is an excellent time to sell at peak value. I would take a 2024 first-round pick, but you can get more than that. Alternatively, you could pivot to a younger back with upside, like Breece Hall, without adding too much on top.

Rebuilding Buy – Jonathan Taylor, RB IND

Seeing a running back heading into his fourth season as a rebuilding buy may be confusing. However, Taylor has an excellent opportunity to see a spike in value over the next two months and can be sold for a profit down the line.

Taylor is currently one of the most talked about players in dynasty circles. He has not gone his desired trade and has been placed on the PUP list to start the season. This means people are panicking about what to do with him. In dynasty, this is always your time to swoop in and try to grab a discount. Taylor is still an elite player and an elite fantasy asset. Despite people being concerned he may miss time, there is no scenario where he misses significant time this season.

He will be on the PUP list for at least the season’s first four games. There is some suggestion he may miss further time to try and force a new contract or trade. However, he has no leverage and gains none by holding out further. If Taylor is still on the PUP list by week six and doesn’t return this season, his contract will toll for the 2023 season. That means in 2024, we will start all of this again with him playing in the final year of his contract a second time.

Taylor wants to get paid, and the only way that happens is if he returns to the field and produces. He will be back by week six, and you can get an elite running back on the cheap just by understanding the league’s contract rules and potential leverage. He is the RB6 in DLF ADP currently, and I think his value may have dropped to a point where you may be able to tempt him away for as little as a first-round pick. If that can be another team first-rounder of a pick in the distant future, then even better. The best move may be to pivot off another player to ‘buy low’ on Taylor and flip him for a profit in a month.

I need more information – Joshua Kelley, RB LAC

This follows on from the discussion of Austin Ekeler. I am concerned about Ekeler and him continuing his recent production levels. That concern could potentially open the door for another player to step into a 1b-type role. Enter Joshua Kelley. He has struggled to make an impact through the first three years of his career, having averaged 4.2 fantasy points per game. However, he flashed significantly in the preseason, averaging a league-leading 9.4 yards per attempt, of which 6.67 were after contact. It may be nothing more than a couple of broken runs in the preseason against backup defenses. However, fantasy value could follow if he can carve out a role moving forward.