Dynasty Decision: James Conner
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
James Conner, RB ARI
Conner has had a somewhat yo-yo career. He is producing some incredible seasons almost out of nowhere to some less-than-stellar years. Now heading toward the back end of his career, is there any remaining fantasy value to be had, or is he nothing more than a roster clogger at this stage with no future resell value?
Previous Performance
Entering the league as a third-round pick of the Steelers, Conner barely saw the field playing only 68 snaps as a rookie. This was because he was behind Le’Veon Bell on the depth chart, who was an actual every-down back. In 2018 Conner broke out to an unbelievable level and won many people championships. Le’Veon Bell held out for a new contract, and Conner didn’t drop a beat averaging over 22 points per game and finishing as the RB6 on the season.
After that breakout season, Conner battled injury and failed to reproduce on his breakout season in Pittsburgh through the 2019 and 2020 seasons. He then moved to Arizona in Free Agency and had a phenomenal first season finishing as a top 8 back. Last season injuries popped up again, and despite averaging over 15 points per game, he finished outside the top 15 backs on the season.
Throughout his career, Conner has been an all-round back seeing over 30 receptions each season, along with 15 touches inside the 10-yard line and over 150 carries in four of the last five seasons. This ability to contribute to the game’s rushing, receiving, and goalline aspects means he sees the all-important high-value touches as fantasy relevant when he can stay healthy.
Situation and Usage
The Cardinals are entering a rebuilding phase of the franchise. With Kyler Murray likely to miss the start of the year, along with the release of DeAndre Hopkins and several other older players moving on, the franchise is targeting 2024 and beyond for relevancy. As part of that rebuild, they have focused their resources on longer-term positions such as offensive line, wide receiver, and defense this off-season.
This means the current running back room consists of James Conner, 2022 sixth-round pick Keaontay Ingram, and minimum contract free agents Ty’Son Williams and Corey Clement. This backfield is going to be James Conners almost exclusively. The Cardinals will likely be a below-average offense to start the season with Colt McCoy or fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune under center.
If they struggle, the team may opt not to rush Kyler Murray back from injury and risk further injury to their franchise quarterback. However, despite the offense struggling, Conner should see enough volume to warrant fantasy relevancy. The other bonus is that being a competent receiving back and pass protector means Conner will likely be on the field if the team is chasing games and passing more while playing from behind.
Injuries and Contract
Contractually Conner is likely a one-year option. He is under contract in 2024, but the franchise can save $5.5m in moving on from him, which is the most likely situation for a then 29-year-old back on a rebuilding team.
From a health standpoint, running backs will always have their fair share of injuries due to the physical toll the position takes. However, Conner has been more injury-riddled than most. Throughout his six-year career, he has not played an entire season and has played in more than 14 games once. The realistic scenario is that he will miss some time in 2023, as is the case with most running backs.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB38 in May ADP, and the Trade Analyzer has him worth around a random second-round pick. Recent trades are below; the majority of recent trades have been player related, so they don’t offer a true reflection of what his value is in terms of picks.
Conclusion
James Conner is unlikely to be a league winner. He will be on a bad offense in 2023 and, as such, will not put up the consistent 15+ points per game you would dream of out of your running back spots. However, where his current value is, you’re not expecting that production level.
If you view Conner as a one-year rental flex option with the upside to be an RB2, he is a screaming value right now. Whenever he has been healthy, he has been a reliable fantasy option, and he is facing next to no competition for touches in the Cardinals backfield.
If you’re looking for that final bench option or deep flex play to push you over the top, you can do much worse than acquiring Conner to get you there. Conner will likely struggle to offer any value or production beyond this year. Yes, Conner will probably have no resale value after this season. However, for the price of a second-round pick or potentially even less, he will offer solid and reliable production this season, which is valuable if you’re pushing for a title.
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