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Dynasty Blueprint: Old Elites

A deep dive looking at older, elite players’ production versus their dynasty value.

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Each offseason, dynasty managers are faced with the same decision…what to do with aging, but productive players. The initial and obvious thought is to move on from these players while they still have some value. Unfortunately, that’s not always an easy task as dynasty managers weigh the battle of value versus production.

I’ll spend the rest of this article digging into some past examples of these “old elites” but exactly how you will treat these assets this offseason likely comes down to how you team-build in general. If you are constantly seeking to contend, these are likely players you should be targeting. On the other hand, if you factor in current and future player value as part of your team-building process, it could be time to ship these players off to another roster.

Before we go any further, let’s define “old elites” and identify this year’s crop of players. I have focused on only the running back and wide receiver positions. I eliminated many players by limiting the subset to only backs and receivers who have achieved at least three years of top-12 fantasy production. As for the “old” part, let’s stick with running backs who are at least 28 years old and 30+ year old receivers. Finally, the ADP data I cite throughout this study is based on our annual May ADP pull. With each year’s rookies in place, I have found this to be among the most important months of ADP data, especially when focusing on the offseason.

This year, there are eight players meeting the age and production criteria to be an old elite.

Name Age Top-12 Seasons May Positional ADP Rank
Derrick Henry 29 3 RB17
Aaron Jones 28 4 RB22
Michael Thomas 30 4 WR65
Davante Adams 30 5 WR17
Odell Beckham 30 3 WR63
DeAndre Hopkins 30 5 WR40
Keenan Allen 31 4 WR41
Adam Thielen 32 3 WR79

Historical Perspective

Before we make any rash decisions about the players listed above, let’s take a look at the 25 players to fall into the old elite category over the past ten years. Each of these players tells a story but together, they offer guidance and realistic expectations for players coming after.

Again, we are focused on players who have met both the age (28-year-old running backs and 30-year-old wide receivers) and production (at least three seasons as a top-12 fantasy scorer) benchmarks. With many players hitting these marks multiple times, the 25 players combined for 64 instances since 2014.

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Dynasty Blueprint: Old Elites
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Dan Harnack
3 months ago

muy bien

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