Dynasty Blueprint: Old Elites

Each offseason, dynasty managers are faced with the same decision…what to do with aging, but productive players. The initial and obvious thought is to move on from these players while they still have some value. Unfortunately, that’s not always an easy task as dynasty managers weigh the battle of value versus production.

I’ll spend the rest of this article digging into some past examples of these “old elites” but exactly how you will treat these assets this offseason likely comes down to how you team-build in general. If you are constantly seeking to contend, these are likely players you should be targeting. On the other hand, if you factor in current and future player value as part of your team-building process, it could be time to ship these players off to another roster.

Before we go any further, let’s define “old elites” and identify this year’s crop of players. I have focused on only the running back and wide receiver positions. I eliminated many players by limiting the subset to only backs and receivers who have achieved at least three years of top-12 fantasy production. As for the “old” part, let’s stick with running backs who are at least 28 years old and 30+ year old receivers. Finally, the ADP data I cite throughout this study is based on our annual May ADP pull. With each year’s rookies in place, I have found this to be among the most important months of ADP data, especially when focusing on the offseason.

This year, there are eight players meeting the age and production criteria to be an old elite.

Historical Perspective

Before we make any rash decisions about the players listed above, let’s take a look at the 25 players to fall into the old elite category over the past ten years. Each of these players tells a story but together, they offer guidance and realistic expectations for players coming after.

Again, we are focused on players who have met both the age (28-year-old running backs and 30-year-old wide receivers) and production (at least three seasons as a top-12 fantasy scorer) benchmarks. With many players hitting these marks multiple times, the 25 players combined for 64 instances since 2014.

Production

As mentioned previously, we are really focused on two key aspects here, production and value. Let’s begin with what the previous examples tell us about aging, elite player production.

Of the 64 instances since 2014, 31 were running backs while 33 were wide receivers. Of these 31 “old” running backs, three went on to produce an RB1 (top-12) season the following year. This represents 10% of the sample. Another six backs finished as an RB2 (RB13-24) the following season, good for 20% of the total. In all, nine running backs produced as a starting-caliber back the season after falling into the “old elite” category. All nine of these running backs outperformed their May dynasty ADP. On average, these nine backs were drafted as the RB30 and finished the following season as the RB15. Of those 31 running backs, 14 of them, or 45%, finished outside of the top 50 fantasy scorers the following season. Ten of the 31 running backs were drafted as top-24 backs, based on our May ADP data. Of those ten, only three actually finished as an RB2 or better.

The aging wide receivers were even more productive. Five of the 31 wideouts finished as WR1s, good for 15% of the total. One receiver (3%) posted a WR2 season, while another six (18%) finished in the WR3 (WR25-36) range. That’s a total of 12 receivers of the 33 who finished as starting fantasy assets. That’s 36% of the subset. Eleven of the twelve receivers outproduced their May dynasty ADP. The twelve receivers averaged a draft position of WR42 and an end-of-year fantasy rank of WR19. Thirteen of the 33 receivers finished as the WR50 or lower, including six outside of the top 90 receivers. Nearly 40% of the subset were considered major disappointments. Of the 33 receivers in the sample, 14 were being valued as top-36 wideouts, based on May ADP, but only five of those 14 actually offered a solid return on that investment and finished as a WR3 or better.

Value

While the production category offered plenty of hope for the old elites, these players actually gaining value from one year to the next is very unlikely. Of the entire 64-player sample, the average value positional ADP value change was a 19-spot loss, year over year. Just seven of the 64 players gained value from one May until the next. Of the seven risers, four gained just three spots or fewer in positional ADP.

Back to the 31-player running back group, only two players gained value from one year to the next and none since 2015. Frank Gore in 2014 and Adrian Peterson the following year were able to pull off the rare feat. On average, running backs lost over 16 spots in positional ADP. Of the 31 backs, 12, or 39%, went undrafted the following year.

Just as was the case in the production category, the wide receivers proved to be a better investment. Of the 33 wideouts, five gained value the following year, while ten went undrafted. That’s 15% gaining value and 30% falling completely off the dynasty map. The average old elite receiver lost nearly 22 spots in positional ADP by the next May.

Thanks to their age, many players in this group of old elites are clearly past their prime and are already being valued in that way. But, if we narrow the pool to only players still being drafted as fantasy starters (top-24 running backs and top-36 wide receivers), does the value loss change? No. In fact, the falloff in value is even more drastic, although these once-elite players obviously had further to fall. Of the 24 players with an ADP in the fantasy-starter range, they averaged a 26-spot loss in positional ADP and only two (Peterson and Brandon Marshall, both in 2015) gained value.

2023 Old Elites

After taking in all of the information on the past decade of old elites, what conclusions can be made about this year’s crop? Let’s take a look at the eight players who qualify.

Derrick Henry, RB TEN

After a slow start to his career, Henry has turned into one of the league’s dominant players, consistently punishing defenders and reminding us all what a size/speed freak really looks like. Henry has finished a top-four back in three of the past four seasons with 2021 the exception due to missing half the season. Henry has consistently fallen outside of the RB1 range in offseason ADP, only to regain value when the games begin again in the fall. At 29 years old, that will be a huge difficult trend to continue. Henry’s future is uncertain as the Titans have been rumored to part ways with the back, though they lack a clear option behind the behemoth back.

May 2024 ADP Projection= RB30 (-13 spots)

Aaron Jones, RB GB

You might have been surprised to see the Packers starting back on a list of aging elite players. He’s among the older backs from the historic class of 2017, turning 28 last December. Also, Jones has rarely been called elite. Based on our criteria of at least three RB1 seasons, Jones cruised into this group, boasting four straight seasons as the RB11 or better. Like most Packers, there are now concerns about how Jones will perform with Aaron Rodgers no longer a member of the team. Despite his excellent production, Jones’ value has been surprisingly low for months now. He hasn’t been drafted as an RB1 since November 2011 and has been outside of the top-20 backs since this past November. His future value will likely be determined by his team status. If he remains in Green Bay for this season and beyond, Jones may not fall far. Since he’s already being valued at a discount, I am glad to buy Jones now, assuming I have a contending team.

May 2024 ADP Projection= RB38 (-16 spots)

Michael Thomas, WR NO

After making a strong case as the best receiver in the game through his first four seasons, injuries have derailed Thomas’ career and his dynasty value. Thomas began his career with four straight WR1 seasons and was the overall dynasty WR1 for twelve consecutive months through most of 2020. That’s when things went south. Thomas has battled multiple injuries and has played just ten games in the past three seasons. It was thought to be a lock that the Saints would be releasing the veteran this offseason. Instead, they reworked his contract and Thomas will have one more shot with the team that made him a star. Thomas reached a low point of WR83 last November and has slowly regained some value as he now ranks as the WR65. He is going to need to stay healthy and prove he can still be a productive player before dynasty managers are willing to invest in Thomas again. Thomas is the only player in this group I am currently projecting to gain value in the coming twelve months.

May 2024 ADP Projection= WR52 (+13 spots)

Davante Adams, WR LV

In his first season with the Raiders, Adams showed that he didn’t need Rodgers and Green Bay to produce as one of the top wideouts in the league. Adams finished as the WR3 last season, which now gives him five WR1 seasons in the past seven years, including three straight as the WR3 or better. It is difficult to envision Adams’ production falling, at least in the coming year. Regardless, we have seen other veteran players continue to lose value even after posting elite seasons. Adams hasn’t been outside of the top-18 wide receivers in our monthly ADP since November 2017. I expect that to change in the near future. If contending, I am likely riding out this season with Adams since his value is already falling, though that comes with the understanding his value can only go down from here.

May 2024 ADP Projection= WR32 (-15 spots)

Odell Beckham, WR BAL

Much like Thomas, Beckham began his career on top, creating a meme youth footballers would emulate for years to come, and ascending to the consensus 1.01 dynasty startup pick. Beckham finished as a top-eight fantasy scorer in each of his first three seasons before injuries began to take their toll. He only played in four games the next season and has played a full slate of games just one time since 2016, including missing all of last year as he once again recovered from a torn ACL. The last time we saw OBJ on an NFL field, he surprised everyone by making a strong impact for the Super Bowl champion Rams. Beckham produced two WR1 games and another as a WR2 in the final seven weeks of the 2021 season. Now with the Ravens, I expect Beckham to once again perform at a high level, but there has to be concern for more injuries. It’s an easy call to take a shot on Beckham at his current WR63 ADP, but when his value spikes, it will be time to sell, quickly.

May 2024 ADP Projection= WR89 (-26 spots)

DeAndre Hopkins, WR FA

The veteran receiver Hopkins is obviously in a unique position currently as we do not yet know where he’ll be playing in 2023 following his recent release from the Cardinals. Arizona is clearly set for a rebuild year and had been attempting to trade Hopkins, with no luck. Hopkins has already played ten seasons in his NFL career and has finished as a top-five fantasy scorer in half of them. Injuries and a league-imposed suspension have cost Hopkins 14 games over the past two seasons, but he has still been productive when on the field. He’s finished as a WR1 in 46% of his games over the past six seasons. It is impossible to project what the next year for Hopkins will look like until we know where he will land, but his value is sure to continue to decline. Less than two years ago, Hopkins was the dynasty WR9 according to our ADP and now he’s fallen to 40. He’s suitable for dynasty contenders only and still risky even for those teams. I’ll be selling as soon as he signs with a new team and experiences the inevitable value bump.

May 2024 ADP Projection= WR69 (-29 spots)

Keenan Allen, WR LAC

The other player from the class of 2013 Allen’s career got off to a slow start. After finishes of WR18 and WR35 in his first two years, Allen totaled just nine games the following two seasons. Surprisingly, Allen’s dynasty value withstood the missed time as he remained within the top-24 dynasty receivers throughout those two seasons. Health has been less of a concern in recent years as Allen has missed just nine games total over the past six years. During that time, he strung together five straight WR1 seasons, but his value has steadily declined as he has aged. Coming off a 2022 injury, Allen’s dynasty ADP of 87 overall is the lowest in his ten-year career. A rumored cut-candidate earlier this offseason, the Chargers’ brass offered a vote of confidence for their veteran and then proceeded to use their first-round pick on receiver Quentin Johnston. This may be the beginning of the end, but Allen remains a reliable producer and his new low value should look like flashing neon lights to dynasty contenders. Buy now and enjoy the production and fantasy playoffs later.

May 2024 ADP Projection= WR64 (-23 spots)

Adam Thielen, WR CAR

A former small-school receiver and undrafted free agent, Thielen has already outperformed what anyone might have expected. After playing sparingly through his first two seasons, Thielen saw significant work in 2016 and finished as the WR30. He then finished as a top-ten fantasy scorer in three of the next four years. Although he still saw plenty of opportunity last season, running the second-most routes of any receiver in the league, Thielen’s production took a hit as he finished as the WR31 despite playing all seventeen games. After the two sides could not come to an agreement on a renegotiated deal, Thielen was cut by his hometown Vikings. The surprise was he was quickly scooped up (and overpaid) by the Panthers. The veteran will at least have the chance to serve as the rebuilding team’s WR1, competing with DJ Chark and rookie Jonathan Mingo. Thielen did total five games as a top-24 scorer last season and I expect similar numbers in 2023, though it will be difficult to decide when to actually start the streaky veteran. Ultimately, I see Thielen walking away from the game following the 2023 season.

May 2024 ADP Projection= N/A (WR79 in May 2023)

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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