Dynasty Fantasy Football: Traversing the Trade Finder
It’s been a while, but we’re back to traverse the trade finder, a series where I pick a couple of players and try to find what opportunities are available to us using the amazing Dynasty League Football Trade Finder tool. For those unfamiliar, this tool helps you find actual trades being made in dynasty leagues with the ability to search for specific players or draft picks and filter by various settings. We love to talk about finding opportunities in the dynasty trade market, and this tool literally shows you these opportunities in action. This time I decided to focus on two quarterbacks who I think have been undervalued throughout this offseason. Let’s dive into what I was able to find this time.
For all trades, I will use the following filters: 12 Teams, 2QB, 4 points per passing TD, and 1 point PPR.
Kyler Murray, QB ARI
Kyler Murray has been falling in ADP, and I can’t agree with it at all. Currently, Murray has a Dynasty League Football Superflex Startup ADP of QB12 at 17th overall, and I’ve personally seen him fall further than that this offseason. I understand why people are reacting this way, considering Murray’s torn ACL, but it still doesn’t make sense to me to respond this much to the injury. Yes, Murray has a chance to miss a large portion of the season. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s one of the true difference-makers at QB, which is quite crucial in superflex leagues. Murray has points per game of 17.8 as a rookie, followed by 23.7 in his second year, 21.5 in his third year, and 20 last year if you remove the game where he tore his ACL. There’s every reason to believe that when healthy, Murray will again return to giving us 20 points per game. Additionally, elite QBs like Murray are one of the most stable assets you can have on your dynasty rosters. With that in mind, Murray is a clear buy-low candidate, so I wanted to see what he’s actually being traded for.
This first trade is very simple to me. Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson are in the same tier, so the fact that Jordan Love is also included on the Murray side makes it an easy trade. Anytime you can stay in the same tier of players while acquiring a substantial asset, like Love in this case, it’s just a good process to do it. Murray and Watson will likely provide the same number of weekly points to your team while keeping a similar dynasty value, essentially making them interchangeable on your team. Love also solves the problem of needing a quarterback to start the season while Murray gets healthy if you’re trying to compete.
Darrell Henderson is a non-factor, so this trade is essentially Kyler Murray for the draft picks which I would do every time, regardless of roster. Competing or not, this is a price you don’t pass up. It’s hard to ever find a quarterback of Murray’s level for this cheap. The starting point for a quarterback like Murray is typically two first-round rookie draft picks, and it could increase from there. This is one of those trades you hear about and think, “Those trades don’t happen.” But they do, and here’s the proof.
Geno Smith, QB SEA
People have still not adjusted enough to Geno Smith’s career resurgence in 2022. It’s somewhat understandable. Smith had been basically irrelevant for the previous six years. But, if you look at his various statistics and metrics, including being first in the NFL in completion percentage over expected, you see a quarterback who was indeed playing at an elite level. So much so that it’s hard to deny that he’s the real deal and here to stay; also, this offseason, the Seahawks added the best wide receiver in the draft in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and a solid pass-blocking and receiving running back in Zach Charbonnet. After signing a contract extension this offseason, Smith looks poised to build off his 2022 season with another great year in 2023 and beyond but currently has a Dynasty League Football Superflex Startup ADP of QB21 behind quarterbacks like Jordan Love, who has potential, but that’s it and Jared Goff who was worse than Smith last year and has a worse supporting cast around him. Like Kyler Murray above, Smith is a buy-low candidate, so let’s see what he can be bought for.
This is quite the discount for Geno Smith. Sam Howell has some deserved hype going into this season; Gabe Davis is not a good enough asset to bridge the gap between Howell and Smith. If you can upgrade from Howell to Smith by using a mediocre asset like Davis, you should do it every league you have the opportunity to do so. As a fifth-round NFL Draft pick, Howell has a lot of hurdles to cross as the probability that he can even come close to Smith’s production is doubtful, and even if he does, his market value will only grow so far as there will always be hesitancy with him because of his draft capital. Davis is a fine player, but we know who he is now, a boom-bust WR3. Smith, who finished as QB1 last year and could easily do so again this year, makes a difference in your lineup.
This is another discount for Geno Smith. While I like Cam Akers‘ prospects for the 2023 season, we must understand that he’s an expiring asset. Being a veteran running back with a serious injury history means that his market value will always be suppressed, and the bottom can fall out at any moment if he has another injury setback. Smith, as a productive quarterback, is a much more stable asset. Also, quarterback production is much more harrowing than running back production. Every year we see many backup running backs give start-able weeks when the starting running back gets hurt, but it doesn’t happen in the same way for quarterbacks. Fewer backup quarterbacks can fill in for an injured starter and be worthwhile for fantasy.
If you’ve got a team needing upgrading at quarterback, these two can be bought for a discount and will make a difference in your lineup. Good luck to all in your future trading endeavors. Until next time, like always, I’ll be traversing the trade finder.
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