2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Jordan Addison
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
SITUATION
Name: Jordan Addison
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Minnesota Vikings
College Team: University of Southern California
Draft Status: Round one, 23rd overall
Jordan Addison, a product of Tuscarora High School in Frederick, Maryland, had an illustrious career with Kenny Pickett at Pittsburgh before moving on to USC in the transfer portal last season. 2022 was certainly a step back from Addison’s Belitnikoff season in 2021, but it didn’t keep him from being a first-round pick.
While Addison was the last wide receiver selected in the first round, he got the best landing spot in the Minnesota Vikings. He’ll play opposite Justin Jefferson, in an offense that prioritizes the passing game, with minimal competition from a second receiver. The landing spot may limit his ceiling for the time being, but we’ve seen several teams get fantasy football success from their second wide receiver in recent seasons. We’ll dig into his opportunity in Minnesota later, but the situation looks good for Jordan Addison to hit the ground running in his rookie season.
TALENT
Jordan Addison Combine Results:
Height: 5′ 11″
Weight: 173 lbs
Arm: 30 â…ž”
Hand: 8 ¾”
40-Yard Dash: 4.49 Seconds
10-Yard Split: 1.56 Seconds
Vertical Jump: 34″
Broad Jump: 10′ 2″
When it comes to talent for Jordan Addison, you have to trust the tape because the measurables just are not there. He is so small for a wide receiver, at just 179 pounds, that puts his weight in the third percentile. The only veteran wide receivers who are in the top 113 wide receivers and weigh less than Addison are Marquise Brown (166 lbs.), DeVonta Smith (170 lbs.), and Greg Dortch (173 lbs.). So, it is possible to succeed at this level at his size. But, with the lack of size, you’d like to see Addison clock a faster 40-yard dash. 4.49 seconds gave him a speed score on Player Profiler of 82.8, in the 19th percentile. Devonta Smith scored 4.39 at his Pro Day and 4.27 at his.
Despite his size and lack of elite speed, he was incredibly productive in college, especially in 2021. He runs routes very well and gets off the line quickly. He uses quick footwork to get open and gains separation with great acceleration. Despite his size, he showed in college that he could actually play all over the field. At the NFL level, his size might keep him inside, but many people thought the same thing about Justin Jefferson coming out of college and going to the same team as Addison.
He can be slowed down by physical defensive backs, who can push him around at his size. He also struggles to reach off-target passes, as his wingspan is just as small as the rest of him. When you watch Addison’s tape, you forget how small he is, but we’ll see if he can overcome the lack of size at the NFL level.
OPPORTUNITY
Minnesota Vikings Depth Chart:
Jordan Addison enters the league immediately as his team’s second wide receiver target. While Jaxon Smith-Njigba may be playing behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and Quentin Johnston may be playing behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, Addison only needs to play ahead of KJ Osborn to be the number two wide receiver on the team. This is great for his rookie-year value, but long-term concerns about his landing spot exist.
First, his quarterback, Kirk Cousins. Cousins has shown for most of his career in Minnesota that he’s been able to support two wide receivers. Adam Thielen has had an incredible career despite the presence of Stefon Diggs or Justin Jefferson. 2023 is the final year on Cousins’ contract and could be his last year in Minnesota. Even if he does come back, he’s no spring chicken at 35 years old and certainly isn’t in the elite tier of quarterbacks. Tee Higgins has Joe Burrow throwing him the ball, but Jordan Addison does not.
Second, the best wide receiver in the game is Justin Jefferson. As long as Jefferson is on this team, Addison will never be the alpha dog. He’ll be second in the pecking order behind Jefferson, and he could even be considered behind TJ Hockenson as well. It is tough to see a situation where Addison finishes as a top-six fantasy receiver while Jefferson is lined up against him.
Despite all of this, it is still a great opportunity for Jordan Addison. Of all of the rookie wide receivers, he has the best chance to succeed in 2023. With Adam Thielen on the way out, 22.3% of the Vikings targets are gone; that’s 143 targets to be spread between Addison, Jefferson, Osborn, Hockenson, and the backs. A large number of those could be going to Addison. If you include Dalvin Cook‘s targets, that will make another 56 targets available. Jordan Addison has the opportunity to be a fantasy football star as early as his rookie season but may lack the upside of some of the other rookie wide receivers.
RISK
Data courtesy of Sports Reference.Â
The risk for Jordan Addison’s NFL success starts with his size. He does not have the prototypical size that would usually lead to fantasy football success. That’s certainly a risk, but the Vikings knew it when they took him with the 23rd pick of the draft. That draft capital means that the Vikings are committed to him and will work through any struggles he might have.
First-round draft capital typically leads to success for wide receivers, but it isn’t 100%. In recent memory, we’ve seen first-round busts in Kadarius Toney, Jalen Reagor, and N’Keal Harry. Through one season, Treylon Burks could make that list too, but he has a chance to come through in his sophomore campaign. Out of Smith-Njigba, Johnston, and Zay Flowers, Addison was the last player selected and could be the one most likely to bust in this year’s first round.
MARKET
Data courtesy of MFL Rookie ADP on DLF.
Addison is the number two wide receiver being selected in rookie drafts on MFL and the seventh overall pick in Superflex. He was the fourth wide receiver selected in the NFL Draft, but the landing spot in Minnesota has pushed him up over Quentin Johnston and Zay Flowers.
Addison is an excellent pick for a team that wants to make a run this season; at that point in the rookie draft, everyone else could struggle to produce their rookie season. He will be on the field a lot in Minnesota and be a focal piece of their offense.
Data courtesy of DLF Trade Analyzer.
The DLF staff rankings have Jordan Addison as the 53rd overall player in Superflex and the 24th wide receiver in the rankings. He’s ranked just behind Chris Godwin, Christian Watson, and Jerry Jeudy and a few picks above DJ Moore and George Pickens. This group of rookie wide receivers enters the league with less hype than the last couple of classes, and you can see that in the rankings here. Addison and Smith-Njigba are the only player’s considered Wide Receiver twos for fantasy, and 24 and 18, respectively. If Addison takes advantage of his opportunity in his rookie season, his ranking could be higher next season than it is right now.
Jordan Addison has holes in his game, but his play on the field earned him a Biletnikoff Award and a first-round pick. He’s a high-end fantasy asset who has a chance to increase his value in 2023. But he must find a way to play bigger than his diminutive size to succeed in the NFL.
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