Dynasty ADP vs Rankings: Running Backs
This series explores DLF rankings and ADP to find advantages in our dynasty leagues. We now have new superflex ADP to look at for the first time since the 2023 NFL Draft.
One of the most common questions I get this time of year is what players I’m “targeting” or feel are “must-roster” for the coming season. With that in mind, I thought we’d start going over the values identified by DLF rankings versus ADP by position. This week, running backs.
You can find links to our DLF rankings here. You can find the current May Superflex ADP here.
The Running Backs Most Valued at DLF
With the increase in wide receiver value and ADP, this off-season the running back position continues to tumble into an interesting area for dynasty.
DLF rankings also, almost always, heavily favor the wide receiver position. However, there are a precious few who DLF rankers like significantly higher than ADP right now.
Simply put, DLF rankers think now is the time to value older running backs.
Nick Chubb, RB CLE
There is often more turnover in the top 12 at running back, relative to other positions. Chubb has been one of the few players to remain high in ADP even as he ages. For the first time, the rankings are currently a lot higher than ADP. Not even age seems to shake the confidence in one of perhaps the best pure runners in the NFL.
ADP has him outside the top 12 at the position, while DLF rankers are still hot to trot for the seemingly perpetual production from the 27-year-old Cleveland stalwart.
He hasn’t produced less than 1,000 rushing yards since his rookie season and has only produced less than 1,200 once since 2019.
Aaron Jones, RB GB
The arrival of Jordan Love at the head of the depth chart in Green Bay likely brings with it many changes. While many are more invested in the touchdown rate of Christian Watson, DLF rankers are more focused (relatively) on the always efficient fifth-round stand-out, Jones.
He has averaged 49% of the team’s rushing attempts and 12.2% of the team’s targets over the last four years. He is currently drafted around the mid-second-round rookie picks and distant upside wide receivers like Jahan Dotson.
The Running Backs DLF are Selling
Derrick Henry, RB TEN
Henry made the preferred list at one point this off-season. But the definition of an all-out rusher seems to be waning in DLF rankings. While the difference isn’t huge – DLF rankers placing him only 10 spots lower than his current ADP – the capital spent on Henry is probably best put elsewhere on your team at this point.
He is still drafted inside the top 70 picks, making it a strong sell window according to rankings.
JK Dobbins, RB BAL
While there has been a strong wind behind the value of Dobbins – now that his efficient rushing is going to be combined with a fully healthy year – DLF rankers aren’t buying it.
Having finally signed their long-term quarterback, Lamar Jackson, they also invested in the receiving game with the addition of Zay Flowers in the NFL Draft, the signing of Odell Beckham Jr, and a now healthy Rashod Bateman. The team looks set to move away from the heavy running style we have become used to over the last few years.
Combine this with the fact that Jackson is also going to be a significant drain on rushing attempts for even a very talented player, like Dobbins, and rank expectation is much lower than ADP’s moving forward.
Sleepers?
Below are the running backs DLF rankers are most interested in outside the top 100 picks in ADP. None of them should be considered high-value targets, nor players you want to trade a lot of future draft capital for.
The most significant differences between ADP and rankings in the lower rounds seem to be players who have a proven history of production. The list in general is a who’s who of remember when.
DLF rankers want to look for in their deeper running back additions in the form of previous hits including James Robinson, the former rookie top 12 breakout currently on the New England depth chart, and even former Chiefs stand-out and current free agent Kareem Hunt.
Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
Cook is currently not certain to remain on the team’s depth chart according to a lot of news chatter, though it has started to look more likely recently after the draft. He has shown a significant fall in performance over the last few years, however, not to mention a history of season-ending, and hampering injuries.
But he is also a player with a top-12 potential running back currently drafted outside the top 100 picks in DLF ADP.
DLF rankers are less sure about his age-28 season being his final one.
Alvin Kamara, RB NO
DLF rankers are more interested in Kamara, still holding him inside the top 24 at the position.
Kamara faces a plethora of challenges on his potential road to fantasy production this year. He could be suspended, to begin with. What’s more, the team seems to have prepared for his potential absence by adding Jamaal Williams this off-season as well as drafting Kendre Miller.
Still, DLF rankers are willing to shoot for his former upside, at least while he is valued outside the top 100 picks as RB30.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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