The 2023 NFL Draft has come and gone. As dynasty managers dive into rookie drafts, a lot of changes are happening and it is time to adjust quicker than your leaguemates. Here are four wide receivers to watch right now:
Zay Jones, JAC – Buy
Zay Jones offers one of the best arbitrage plays in dynasty this season. Coming off a surprising season, the team gets Calvin Ridley back while bringing back Evan Engram and a second season of Christian Kirk (along with Zay) for Trevor Lawrence. Ridley (WR28), Kirk (WR37) and Engram (TE13) are all priced close to their expectations while Jones (WR80), who finished WR32 in points per game last year, has been forgotten. He is likely the fourth option in the passing game but the pricing gap should not be as wide as it is.
The Move – I do not want to buy Jones in formats with less than 11 starters or that are not best ball. However, he is a perfect “tier down” candidate from another wide receiver who likely finishes in a similar range. Think rookie pivots such as Marvin Mims, Jalin Hyatt or Jayden Reed plus a second-round pick.
Elijah Moore, CLE – Sell
If I told you, a wide receiver who finished WR99 last season and was dumped by his team before the end of his rookie contract, generally it would be a player you would want to fade. That happened to Moore, and somehow, he remains WR50 in the latest ADP, despite the dumping by the Jets and the addition of a third-round receiver (Cedric Tillman) in the 2023 NFL Draft. Moore has a better situation but continues to ride the rookie season hype. Many other profiles would have been forgotten if they were in his shoes.
The Move – Speaking of moves, consider selling Moore for Zay Jones plus. Consider moving away from Moore for your favorite rookie bet in the 2023 class, including Rashee Rice, Marvin Mims, Josh Downs or Jayden Reed. I would sell him for a future second-round pick and third-round pick.
KJ Hamler, DEN – Drop
News surfaced last week that Hamler suffered a torn pectoral and will miss significant time. The team drafted Marvin Mims in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft and Tim Patrick returns from a torn ACL. Hamler is a roster clogger and can be dropped in any format.
The Move – Try to trade him first, but otherwise, drop Hamler for a running back. The path to getting back to relevance is a start given how saturated the wide receiver position is at this point.
Mike Williams, LAC – Hold
The analysis to “hold” is typically one I avoid. Generally, it means a player is better than their value and thus, it makes no sense to sell. Oftentimes, this usually means an educated decision must be made to truly “hold” for hopes of future production/profit, or liquidate for flexibility rather than delay the inevitable. Williams is the classic example. With the retention of Keenan Allen (after speculating he may be cut) and the draft capital of Quentin Johnston, many are fading Williams because historically he is not as good as Allen and the Johnston picks seem like an indictment of him. With that said, he is on the Chargers for at least two more years and thrived in times when Allen is not around. Williams could be phased out or he could take over Allen’s role. The middle seems to be where his value currently is.
The Move – Ultimately, Williams is like Gabriel Davis. I want him on teams where I have Justin Herbert. I will pivot to Williams on those teams and move off of him for other receivers in the same range if I do not have Herbert. A classic hedge-your-bet situation where both sides could be right a year from now.
Conclusion – The WR market is much more solidified now that we have landing spots for free agents and rookies. Be mindful of roster cloggers now that the dust has settled with rookies. Continue to look for value swings and pivot opportunities and be mindful of the threshold you are working with in your league.
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Scott, my dawg!, always amazing content. Normally, I treat your word as gospel, but I am a little more optimistic about E mo. Great rookie year, strife with coaching staff year two, plus the Garret Wilson arrived to demand all the targets from the inept QBs. Time will tell!
I couldn’t agree more about E. Moore. He’ll have to be an outlier. I don’t think he turns into a player worthy of a future first, so take the second while you still can.
Thank you for your hard work! Any chances we could get a future article describing the phrase “Be mindful of roster cloggers now that the dust has settled with rookies” and who some examples might be? Or maybe just a general rule for when you know a player is a “roster clogger?”
Christian Kirk & Zay Jones operated as 1A/1B in that offense last year. Zay was a consistent target earner and outargeting Kirk many weeks. They are much closer in production value than their dynasty value shows.
