Dynasty Decision: Kirk Cousins
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Kirk Cousins, QB MIN
Looking back to the 2012 NFL Draft, when Cousins was selected in the fourth round by Washington, it would have been astonishing to predict he would go on to have a better fantasy career than Robert Griffin III after being drafted 100 picks later by the same team. Since that moment, he has produced consistently, having churned out seven top 12 seasons across the last eight years. However, he is now 34 and a pending free agent at the end of the season. So what should you do with him in your dynasty leagues?
Previous Performance
Having been drafted to backup Griffin, it took a few years before Cousins carved out a starting role. However, since he stepped into the starting role in 2015, he has been a reliable but unsexy option. He has produced a QB1 season every season in which he has played an entire season. Even in 2019, when he missed some time to injury, he produced a top 12 performance 33% of the weeks and a top 24 performance 80% of the time.
The knock on Cousins has always been his lack of a ceiling. He has never finished a season averaging 20 points per game or more.
Situation and Contract
The situation for Cousins is fascinating. He is a reliable quarterback who will keep the Vikings relevant and in the playoff conversation. However, he is not good enough to carry the team to be a consistent contender. So the Vikings are facing a tough decision this season. Do they extend Cousins long-term again and tie themselves into solid but not elite quarterback production? Or do they re-enter the quarterback sweepstakes chasing a higher ceiling? Whichever way they go, Cousins is good enough to be starting somewhere next year.
If the Vikings do move on, a list of teams will be queuing up to sign him and get stability at the quarterback position. Those new homes may not be as exciting as the Vikings, who currently boast a receiving core of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson. That is a fairly big question mark surrounding Cousins should he move on. Every single season he has spent with the Vikings, they have surrounded him with elite receiving talent that can boost the value of quarterback play. You have to go back to 2017 with Washington for the last year he didn’t have an elite receiver. He was throwing to Jamison Crowder, Vernon Davis, and Ryan Grant that year. Despite that receiving room, he still threw for over 4,000 yards and finished as a top-five quarterback on the season.
Time will tell if he does end up leaving Minnesota whether he can again produce top-tier fantasy numbers with a questionable supporting cast.
ADP and Trade Value
He is currently the QB17 in May ADP, and the trade analyzer has him worth the equivalent of a third-round pick in 1QB formats or around the 1.08 in the 2023 draft in superflex formats. Recent 1QB trades are below. As you can see, they are similar in value to the trade analyzer, with Cousins not commanding anything more than later-round picks in a trade.
Recent superflex trades are below, confirming the trade analyzer’s valuation of around a random future first or mid-first in the 2023 draft class. Given his production, that feels like a great value for potentially multiple years of fringe QB1 production.
Conclusion
Cousins is a fascinating proposition for a dynasty. He is a safe, reliable, yet unsexy player who you never feel great about starting but rarely lets you down come the end of the season. So to some owners, he is incredibly valuable as a plug-and-play option, particularly in superflex formats. However, some would much rather chase the ceiling and upside of another option at the position.
Cousins is the type of player I like to target in superflex to complement my QB3. I try to balance my QB2/3 options so that one is safer and the other is a much higher upside play. So if I can secure cousins as my QB2, I will swing for the fences at QB3 with a Trey Lance, Desmond Ridder, or Will Levis type.
From an overall value play, Cousins feels grossly undervalued. The knock on him will be his age and his potential declining value. However, he is only 34, and you would expect him to continue to play for at least three more years and potentially even longer. Age is often overvalued and obsessed over in dynasties but none more so than at the quarterback position. Three years is an age in a dynasty, and your roster will likely look incredibly different in three years’ time. If you can secure solid quarterback play and fringe QB1/2 production for a late first, that is an absolute must for me in superflex.
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