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Dynasty Fantasy Football ADP: Post-Draft Risers and Fallers

Which veterans were most affected by the rookie influx during the 2023 NFL Draft?

Josh Palmer

For the past several weeks, even months, the dynasty community has focused on the 2023 NFL Draft and the incoming rookie class. Draft weekend gave us the long-awaited answers to the landing spots and capital for the class of 2023, but the events of those three late-April days also had a major impact on veteran players around the league.

The market has now had a few weeks to respond to the value changes the rookie class has created and we have updated dynasty ADP detailing all player value following the NFL Draft. Using our latest May DLF Dynasty startup ADP, here are some of the players most affected by the NFL Draft, along with their short and long-term outlooks.

I’ve also included the ADP change from April to May data.


Malik Davis, RB DAL (+106 spots)

In our April ADP, Cowboys backup running back Davis was not even selected. Since then, it has become clear that veteran Ezekiel Elliott would not be returning to the team and Dallas only used a sixth-round pick on undersized back Deuce Vaughn. Davis earned a roster spot a year ago as an undrafted free agent and now looks to be in line for the top backup spot behind Tony Pollard. At RB57 this month, Davis has set a new high mark in his dynasty ADP value, but is also at risk of losing his spot to the rookie Vaughn or a street free agent.

Van Jefferson, WR LAR (+65)

After going undrafted in our April ADP, Rams receiver Jefferson is back on the board, gaining 65 spots following the NFL Draft. He has been a solid contributor for the Rams’ offense over the past three years, but hit a dynasty value low-point last month. The Rams then dealt veteran Allen Robinson and didn’t use one of their few day two picks on a pass catcher. Jefferson is now the favorite to be the WR2 for Matthew Stafford and the Rams, though he’s unlikely to ever reach his peak value as a top-100 dynasty asset.

Desmond Ridder, QB ATL (+54)

As the NFL Draft neared, the Falcons were often projected to use their eighth-overall pick on a rookie quarterback. Instead, the selected running back Bijan Robinson, along with adding a second-round offensive lineman. Both of these moves bode well for second-year quarterback Ridder, which helped him gain 54 spots in this month’s dynasty ADP. It is still unclear if the Falcons view Ridder as their long-term answer at quarterback, but his job looks safe for 2023.

Irv Smith Jr, TE CIN (+44)

The Bengals had a clear need at the tight end position for much of the off-season and even signing former Viking Smith just a couple of weeks before didn’t change most mock draft projections as the team was being linked with hometown boy Michael Mayer or one of the other top tight ends in the class. Instead, the Bengals didn’t use any of their eight draft picks on a tight end and Smith is seemingly locked into the starting role. Still just 24 years old, he is a former day two pick who has struggled to stay on the field. Even at his new ADP of TE22 and 184 overall, Smith represents a solid gamble as potentially a key part of one of the league’s most exciting offenses.

Pierre Strong, RB NE (+44)

This one is a bit surprising, but it is a similar situation to Davis in Dallas. The New England Patriots made a dozen picks on draft weekend and none of them were running backs. That leaves the Pats with Rhamondre Stevenson, James Robinson and Pierre Strong as their top-three backs. With early rumors suggesting Robinson might not even make the final roster, dynasty managers are leaning towards the second-year back Strong as the favorite for the backup. As always, the Patriots will trot out one of the most crowded backfields in the league and I expect Strong’s value to continue to swing wildly from month to month.

Jerick McKinnon, RB KC (+43)

Following an amazing late-season run, league-winning running back McKinnon had climbed up to RB46 in our January dynasty ADP. That was McKinnon’s highest ADP since July of 2019. As a 31-year-old free agent, McKinnon’s value quickly tumbled as the off-season began. The Chiefs entered the NFL Draft with Isiah Pacheco and the disappointing Clyde Edwards-Helaire as their top two backs. After not adding a rookie to the backfield, the team quickly re-signed McKinnon, which boosted his value over three full rounds since last month.


Josh Palmer, WR LAC (-81)

The Chargers spent their first-round pick on former TCU wideout Quentin Johnston. While many suggested this as an indictment of veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who have struggled to stay healthy in recent years. While each of those endured slight dips in dynasty value from April to May, it was the team’s incumbent WR3 Josh Palmer who suffered the biggest hit. He fell from the WR68 to WR96 and he may have fallen into roster clogger range.

Dawson Knox, TE BUF (-58)

Although they have not yet returned to the Super Bowl since their record four straight trips in the early nineties, the Buffalo Bills are clearly perennial contenders. In order to maximize that window, the team was looking for clear upgrades to their current personnel. Many expected that to come in the form of a running back in the first round of the NFL Draft, but instead, the Bills grabbed Dalton Kincaid. While they are very different types of players, this is a clear hit to the value of Knox, who has started 46 games in his four-year career, including 29 in the past two seasons. I do see a path for both Knox and Kincaid to be on the field together, which could make Knox a nice investment considering his ADP is the lowest it has been since early in the 2021 season.

Jake Ferguson, TE DAL (-53)

After being selected with a fourth-round pick by the Cowboys a year ago, Ferguson was a solid backup behind Dalton Schultz. With Schultz gone, it appeared Ferguson, and fellow second-year tight end Peyton Hendershot, would have the opportunity for expanded roles. That may not be the case after the Cowboys used a day two pick on Michigan’s Luke Schoonmaker. The versatile tight end will make for a confusing tight end room in Dallas. If other dynasty managers are giving up on Ferguson, I’ll be buying the dip. I am not convinced that Schoonmaker is the better player.

KJ Osborn, WR MIN (-50)

Wide receiver Osborn has spent the past two years playing behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, though he has always made the most of his opportunities. Osborn totaled 110 receptions for over 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns the past two years. That didn’t stop the Vikings from using their first-round pick on former Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison. With Jefferson, TJ Hockenson and presumably Addison, ahead of him in the target pecking order, it will be difficult for Osborn to improve on his past production.

Tyler Allgeier, RB ATL (-48)

We all saw this coming, right? The Falcons used one of the league’s most run-heavy offenses to turn rookie Allgeier into a 1,000-yard runner. Despite that impressive rookie-season production, Allgeier was outside of the top 100 dynasty players and never climbed higher than RB26 based on our dynasty ADP. And that was before the team used the eighth-overall pick on one of the top running back prospects to ever enter the league, Bijan Robinson. The only surprise here is that Allgeier didn’t fall even further.

Terrace Marshall, WR CAR (-47)

It’s been a wild dynasty ADP ride for Marshall. Dynasty managers bought in when the Panthers made the LSU product their second-round pick in 2021. After almost no production as a rookie, Marshall showed some signs of life last season, but even then, nearly one-third of his season-long fantasy production came in a two-game span in mid-season. Now, the Panthers have added another Day Two receiver, grabbing Jonathan Mingo. I am not even sure if Mingo is a clear upgrade over Marshall, but with so much competition added, including DJ Chark and Thielen, it is easy to see Marshall falling down the depth chart.

Ryan McDowell
Dynasty Fantasy Football ADP: Post-Draft Risers and Fallers
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