2023 NFL Draft: Dynasty Fantasy Football Winners and Losers from the AFC South
With the 2023 NFL Draft now over, we can accurately re-assess the depth charts of teams around the NFL. In this series, we’ll be taking a look at players who either gained or lost value based on what their team did during the draft.
The draft will change the storyline for many teams. Some veterans are at risk of losing their jobs. Then there are bottom dweller teams who rebuilt their offense to be able to compete within the next couple of seasons, allowing many fans and dynasty gamers to get excited.
The AFC South has struggled the past few seasons but new, young quarterbacks are finally breathing life back into the division. We have a few teams in the middle of a rebuild but the Jaguars seem ready to ascend to the top of the AFC. Let’s take a look at how the NFL draft and free agency have impacted the AFC South.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Round 1, Pick 27: Anton Harrison, OT Oklahoma
- Round 3, Pick 25 (88): Tank Bigsby, RB Auburn
- Round 4, Pick 19 (121): Ventrell Miller, LB Florida
- Round 4, Pick 28 (130): Ty Lacy, EDGE Oklahoma State
- Round 5, Pick 1 (136): Yasir Abdullah, LB Louisville
- Round 5, Pick 26 (160): Antonio Johnson, S Texas A&M
- Round 6, Pick 8 (185): Parker Washington, WR Penn State
- Round 6, Pick 25 (202): Christian Braswell, CB Rutgers
- Round 6, Pick 31 (208): Erick Hallett II, S Pittsburgh
- Round 7, Pick 9 (226): Cooper Hodges, OL Appalachian State
- Round 7, Pick 10 (227): Raymond Vohasek, DT North Carolina
- Round 7, Pick 23 (240): Derek Parish, FB Houston
Winner: Trevor Lawrence, QB
Over the second half of the 2022 season, Lawrence was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The addition of Doug Pederson and the removal of Urban Meyer have been excellent for his development and he is quickly entering the top tier of young quarterbacks.
The Jaguars may have the best acquisition of any team this off-season: Calvin Ridley. It has been a year and a half since Ridley stepped on the football field, but the last time we saw him play he had 90 catches, 1,374 yards, and nine touchdowns. Ridley gives Lawrence a bona fide WR1 to throw the ball to alongside Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.
Lastly, the Jaguars drafted Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison in the first round to help solidify their offensive line. He will step in immediately for suspended left tackle Cam Robinson, but once Robinson returns, Harrison has the flexibility to play inside or outside at a moment’s notice.
Loser: Travis Etienne, RB
Etienne is one of the more curious cases in fantasy football right now. He has the draft pedigree, he has the skill set, and he has the opportunity but he simply does not produce at a high enough level for some reason. Last year he was the RB24 in PPR points per game. Now you might say that he split time for the first part of the season alongside James Robinson, but from week seven on, after Robinson was traded, Etienne was still only the RB18 in PPR points per game.
Whatever the reason is for his lack of production, the Jaguars must also understand they need help in the backfield and went out and drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round. I’m not the biggest fan of Bigsby but he had an incredibly productive career at Auburn both on the ground and through the air amassing a total of 3,351 yards and 25 touchdowns. If Bigsby’s role in the Jaguars offense is equal to Robinson’s role at the beginning of last year then Etienne may once again be a low-end RB2 in 2023.
Tennessee Titans
- Round 1, Pick 11: Peter Skoronski, OT Northwestern
- Round 2, Pick 2 (33): Will Levis, QB Kentucky
- Round 3, Pick 18 (81): Tyjae Spears, RB Tulane
- Round 5, Pick 13 (147): Josh Whyle, TE Cincinnati
- Round 6, Pick 9 (186): Jaelyn Duncan, OT Maryland
- Round 7, Pick 11 (228): Colton Dowell, WR UT-Martin
Winner: Treylon Burks, WR
The Tennessee Titans are at a bit of a crossroads regarding the future of their organization. New general manager Ran Carthon is slowly preparing for the rebuild but I think they are trying to make one last run in this weak AFC South with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry.
The biggest benefactor of this continued competitiveness is Treylon Burks because Tannehill is going to have to throw the ball to someone, and Burks has virtually zero competition for targets. The other starting receivers in Tennessee are Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Kyle Phillips, not exactly a pair of Pro Bowl-caliber players. If Burks can stay healthy this season, he may be in store for a 25% target share season.
Loser: Ryan Tannehill, QB
While I think the Titans are going to start Tannehill in week one and try to make a push in this division, the writing is on the wall that his future is not long in Tennessee. If things start to head south in Nashville then I expect them to turn the keys over to Will Levis down the stretch to see if he’s their quarterback of the future. 2023 is also the last year of Tannehill’s contract so there is virtually no chance they bring him back after this year is over.
Not only is there no future for Tannehill in Tennessee, the present doesn’t look very bright either. Like I said with Burks, the receiving room is undoubtedly the worst group in the NFL and the only thing the front office did to address that was with a seventh-round WR from an FCS school. The Titans drafted two offensive linemen to replace Taylor Lewan and Ben Jones, but they will take time to develop and won’t be the biggest help for Tannehill immediately.
Tannehill’s resurgence in Tennessee has been a wonderful story, but I think the final chapter is coming to an unceremonious conclusion.
Indianapolis Colts
- Round 1, Pick 4: Anthony Richardson, QB Florida
- Round 2, Pick 13 (44): Julius Brents: CB Kansas State
- Round 3, Pick 16 (79): Josh Downs, WR North Carolina
- Round 4, Pick 4 (106): Blake Freeland, OT BYU
- Round 4, Pick 8 (110): Adetomiwa Adebawore, EDGE Northwestern
- Round 5, Pick 4 (138): Darius Rush, CB South Carolina
- Round 5, Pick 24 (158): Daniel Scott, S California
- Round 5, Pick 28 (162): Will Mallory, TE Miami
- Round 5, Pick 42 (176): Evan Hull, RB Northwestern
- Round 6, Pick 34 (211): Titus Leo, LB Wagner
- Round 7, Pick 4 (221): Jaylon Jones, CB Texas A&M
- Round 7, Pick 19 (236): Jake Witt, OT Northern Michigan
Winner: Anthony Richardson, QB
Richardson was a polarizing prospect coming into the draft with very clear strengths and weaknesses. He needed to go to a franchise that was fully committed to him and his development and I don’t think there was a better fit than Indianapolis. The Colts were tired of the carousel of old quarterbacks like Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan starting under center for them so they used the fourth overall pick to get their potential QB of the future.
Not only is Indy committed to Richardson and the project he will be, but they brought in the right head coach to help aid with his development: Shane Steichen. Steichen is a major reason for the insane development of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense over the last two seasons.
Richardson has a great coach, one of the best running backs in football with Jonathan Taylor, an incredibly dependable receiver in Michael Pittman, and an offensive line that is solid on paper. If Steichen is able to unlock Richardson the way he did with Hurts, then the sky’s the limit in Indianapolis.
Loser: Alec Pierce, WR
Pierce had a decent rookie season where he caught 41 passes for 593 yards and two touchdowns all in a very bad offense. There was hope that he would take the next step in year two, but with Richardson under center I don’t believe that this will be a very pass-heavy offense. The priority will most likely be running the ball with Taylor and Richardson with limited pass attempts as Richardson improves.
It will be hard for Pierce to shine with limited attempts, especially when he has to compete with one of the best target hogs in football: Michael Pittman. In three seasons with the Colts, Pittman has received 331 total targets. To make matters worse for Pierce, the Colts drafted Josh Downs in the third round who is no stranger to high volume after amassing 195 catches in two seasons at North Carolina.
A low pass volume offense with a lot of mouths to feed is not a recipe for success for a fringe receiver like Pierce and he could struggle to produce in 2023.
Houston Texans
- Round 1, Pick 2: CJ Stroud, QB Ohio State
- Round 1, Pick 3: Will Anderson, EDGE Alabama
- Round 2, Pick 31 (62): Juice Scruggs, OL Penn State
- Round 3, Pick 6 (69): Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, WR Houston
- Round 4, Pick 7 (109): Dylan Horton, EDGE TCU
- Round 5, Pick 1 (167): Henry To’oTo’o, LB Alabama
- Round 6, Pick 24 (201): Jarrett Patterson OL, Notre Dame
- Round 6, Pick 28 (205): Xavier Hutchinson, WR Iowa State
- Round 7, Pick 31 (248): Brandon Hill, S Pittsburgh
Winner: Dameon Pierce, RB
There was a concern going into the draft that the Texans would draft a running back, but Houston decided that Pierce is ready to be the workhorse back on this team. The Texans did bring in Devin Singletary but only on a one-year $2.5 million dollar deal and he’s frankly been bad. This is Pierce’s backfield in 2023.
Beyond a lack of serious competition, Pierce should also benefit from a much better offense around him next season. CJ Stroud is a major upgrade over Davis Mills and they also brought in veterans Robert Woods and Dalton Schultz to help this offense.
Pierce had 1,104 total yards and five touchdowns in 13 games last season as the only real pro player on the offense. With all of the improvements around him offensively Pierce should be able to thrive.
Loser: All Texans Pass Catchers
While Stroud is a major upgrade over Mills long term, I think there may be some growing pains for the Ohio State QB as he transitions to the NFL. Stroud had some struggles against pressure in college and will no longer be throwing to the best collection of receivers college football has ever seen.
The QB play may be inconsistent, but the real reason that the receivers will struggle is there are just so many average players in this group that it is going to be hard to determine which one is going to produce in this offense. Houston’s wide receiver room includes Nico Collins, Robert Woods, John Metchie, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and Xavier Hutchinson. This is a group of the most average receivers of all time. It wouldn’t surprise me if any one of these players has 500 yards and not a single one of them is fantasy relevant on a week-to-week basis.
I also want to give a special shoutout to Dalton Schultz as a loser this off-season. While he did get paid, Schultz moving from Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to Stroud and the Texans is a major downgrade for his fantasy stock in 2023.
