2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Quentin Johnston

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.

SITUATION

Name: Quentin Johnston

Position: Wide Receiver

Pro Team: Los Angeles Chargers

College Team: TCU

Draft Status: Round one, 21st overall

Quentin Johnston had a tumultuous lead-up to the NFL draft. Early in the process, many viewed Johnston as the top receiver in the class and mocked him to go as high as #12 to the Texans. However, as the draft drew near, he continually fell down draft boards and often found himself outside the first round.

Johnston landed in the middle of those projections when he was selected 21st overall by the Chargers. QJ will get the chance to grow alongside one of the NFL’s best young QBs in Justin Herbert and develop an offense that threw the ball on 65% of plays last season, the 2nd highest rate in the league.

TALENT

Quentin Johnston Combine Results:

Height: 6’2’’

Weight: 208 lbs

Arm: 33 ¾”

Hand: 9 ⅝”

40-yard dash: 4.52

10-yard split: 1.59

Vertical Jump: 40 ½”

Broad Jump: 11’2’’

Johnston is an incredible athlete and showcased as much at the combine in Indianapolis. He recorded a 97th percentile score in the Broad Jump and a 93rd percentile score in the Vertical Jump.

The impressive thing about Johnston is that his athleticism directly translates on the field. So many players are athletic, but very few convert that athleticism into game success, as QJ does. Johnston had a career mark of 8.3 yards after the catch per reception, which was by far the highest in the 2023 class. When he catches the football, he’s incredibly tough to bring down with his explosiveness and long strides.

OPPORTUNITY

Courtesy of 4for4 Depth Charts.

While the prospects of Johnston growing alongside Herbert is enticing, QJ enters a very crowded WR room in Los Angeles. He currently projects as the WR3 behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, with Josh Palmer right behind him following a breakout second season.

I wasn’t surprised that the Chargers wanted to get younger and more explosive in their receiving room to help in Herbert’s development. Still, I am a little shocked they decided on Johnston, who seems fairly redundant alongside Mike Williams specifically, and Keenan Allen.

The presence of Williams and Allen definitely limits Johnston’s short-term upside, but I don’t anticipate either to be on the team for much longer. Los Angeles has the ability to move on from both veteran players after this season. With Allen’s age and William’s inability to stay healthy, the Chargers may have just drafted their WR1 of the future.

Pairing Johnston’s massive future role with his first-round draft capital gives QJ a window to succeed for dynasty managers.

RISK

Courtesy of Sports Reference.

As enticing of a prospect as Johnston is, he does come with some risk attached. The biggest concern with Johnston is his hands. He struggled with drops throughout his career and finished with a 10.2% drop percentage in college, according to PFF. Many of his drops were due to a lack of concentration, but there were also issues with his ability to highpoint the football and use his hands downfield; Johnston too often allows the ball to come to his chest when making a play.

The other concern is how many mouths there are to feed in Los Angeles right now. While the future looks bright for Johnston in this offense, his immediate production may be limited by the players around him. Allen and Williams will still have significant roles in this offense, Austin Ekeler is one of the best-receiving backs in the NFL, and Herbert showed pretty good rapport with tight end Gerald Everett. This should be Johnston’s offense in the future, but there are only so many targets to go around in the meantime.

MARKET

Courtesy of DLF’s May Rookie ADP.

Since the NFL draft, the ADP on rookie WRs have begun to stabilize, with Johnston most often finding himself as the WR3 in this class behind Jordan Addison and in front of Zay Flowers. However, I’ve seen many rookie drafts where that order gets switched around based on the personal preference of the drafter. The back half of the first round in rookie drafts this season is messy, with those three receivers and Dalton Kincaid almost always going in some order between the 1.07 and the 1.10.

When you look at the dynasty landscape as a whole, Johnston is valued similarly to other receivers such as Jerry Jeudy, Chris Godwin, and Treylon Burks and is often selected between the WR26-WR32 in startup drafts. This is a pretty spot-on valuation of Johnston, who has high upside, but some real immediate concerns with his situation and drops.

Data Courtesy of DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer.

I think the situation in Los Angeles could result in a somewhat disappointing year for Johnston and his dynasty managers. I know this is looking far into the future, but this slow start might create a window to buy Johnston later in the year at a much cheaper price if Johnston’s manager is frustrated with his production and needs a piece to help their team win immediately.

It might be a slow start for the deep-ball threat from TCU, but once the runway is clear of roadblocks such as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, I expect Quentin Johnston to take off alongside Justin Herbert.