2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Darnell Washington
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
SITUATION
Name: Darnell Washington
Position: Tight End
Pro Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
College Team: Georgia
Draft Status: Round three, Pick 93 overall.
The 2023 NFL Draft did not do Darnell Washington’s fantasy football stock any favors. He seems to have hit the trifecta of negatives. At one point, he was projected to go late in round one to a potential dream landing spot such as Dallas. In the end, he slipped to Pittsburgh in round three. The nightmare draft situation was made worse by the fact that Pittsburgh already rosters a young, productive pass-catching tight end, and Washington has stated he will serve as a glorified lineman.
This is a terrible development for his fantasy value as he went from being a potentially high-end fantasy asset to being completely irrelevant. Plummeting down the draft board and landing with a team with Pat Freiermuth in front of him on the depth chart is beyond the worst-case scenario.
As if matters were not already bad enough, NFL insiders reported that his tumble-down draft boards were due to a concern over a potential lingering knee issue. As I stated before, below-average draft capital, a terrible landing spot, and concerns over a potentially significant injury are the trifecta of red flags and have caused Washington to fall entirely out of rookie drafts.
I usually like to end with a positive, what-if statement to play devil’s advocate for the player, but there simply is no positive here. Last season, we saw Jalen Wydermyer post a disastrous combine showing and went from a high-end tight end prospect to irrelevant in a heartbeat. It is sad to say, but Washington is well on his way to suffering the same fate.
TALENT
Darnell Washington Combine Results:
Height: 6’7”
Weight: 264 lbs
Arm: 34 3/8”
Hand: 11”
40-Yard Dash: 4.64 seconds
10-Yard Split: 1.57 seconds
Vertical Jump: 34.0”
Broad Jump: 10’2”
3-Cone Drill: Did Not Participate
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.08 seconds
Bench Press: 21 reps
Washington was a beast at the NFL Combine. The video of him pushing the blocking sled surfaced, and his stock immediately went soaring through the roof. He didn’t test off the charts at the combine but put up astronomical numbers for a tight end. Washington measured in the 93rd percentile for height and 85th percentile for weight. He is a gargantuan human being and would be a massive end-zone target.
As for the metrics that are typically a good indicator of agility, he tested in the 97th percentile in the 20-Yard Shuttle and 73rd percentile on the 10-Yard Split. Like his size measurements, he tested clear off the charts with his agility metrics.
The impressive scores did not stop there, as his speed and explosion numbers also lit up the scoreboard. He was 86th-percentile in the broad jump but only 26th-percentile on the vertical jump as well as an impressive 79th-percentile 40-Yard Dash time. The genuinely incredible section of his testing was his peripheral measurements; his hands measured in the 98th percentile, his arms in the 91st percentile, and his wingspan in the 98th percentile. If healthy, Washington is an utterly unique mountain of a man and has limitless potential.
OPPORTUNITY
Pittsburgh Steelers Depth Chart:
As mentioned above, this is not an ideal landing spot and borders closer to terrible. Not only is Washington buried behind young, star tight end Pat Freiermuth but he will also lose playing opportunities to Connor Heyward and Zach Gentry, as the Steelers are high on both.
Most alarming about his Pittsburgh landing spot is the possibility that he could serve more as an extra lineman than he will as a suitable pass-catching option. 4for4.com has him listed as the second tight end on the depth chart in a four-way tight end group, and this room could be a messy one for fantasy managers.
The worst sign for his opportunity is his injury. There is a saying that the best ability is availability, which is an issue for Washington already. With a lingering knee issue that flares up from game to game and an additional undisclosed lower leg injury, his week-to-week availability will prove troublesome to fantasy managers.
RISK
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
The risk here is enormous, and so is the reward. Washington was forced to share the tight end targets with Brock Bowers at Georgia and never produced more than 500 receiving yards in a single season. That, in combination with the injuries, makes him a significant risk for anyone who drafts him.
The upside is obvious but is a projection, simply put. There is no real history of elite production, and his potential is nothing more than speculation of what he could be based solely on his size and athleticism.
Despite his lack of production and injury concerns, the archetype of a monstrous tight end target is there. The most important thing at the position is size and athleticism, and he has more of both than any tight end in this draft class.
If he can remain healthy, his floor is that of CJ Uzomah, who, despite his size and skill, has never really put it all together to be an elite tight end option.
Washington projects to have his blow-up weeks, but he is also going to provide you with bust weeks and weeks where he is out of the lineup. He is going to be the definition of a boom-or-bust tight end.
MARKET
Data courtesy of DLF May SuperFlex Rookie ADP.
Going into the NFL Draft, Washington was consistently going in the middle of round two of rookie drafts, which has changed significantly in the post-draft process. He is now going off the board at pick 35 on average.
Washington was once in a three-headed battle for the TE1 spot in this class; now, mere weeks later, he finds himself as TE6 between Luke Schoonmaker and Tucker Kraft. A disappointing turn of events, to say the least, for fantasy managers who have shares of him early on in the draft season.
At this point in the off-season, Washington should remain undrafted unless you are in the deepest of dynasty leagues. There is certainly potential, but the myriad of forces he must now overcome makes him a real longshot to ever produce consistently for fantasy.
Data Courtesy of DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer.
His value has taken a massive hit since the NFL Draft, and he has gone from being one of the most sought-after rookie tight ends to being worthless.
As you can see from the list of players in his range on KeepTradeCut.com, it is a grim fate to attempt to sell your stocks of him. He is currently valued in the range of a late third-round pick and can be had straight up for a collection of players that are aging assets or who act primarily as backups in their offense.
At this point, the value of Darnell Washington is that there is no value. If you drafted him in early drafts, you simply have no choice but to stash him on your taxi squad and hope he amounts to something, as you merely aren’t going to get anything of value for him that is comparable to the draft pick you had to spend on him.
It’s truly an unfortunate series of events to the start of what looked to be a promising NFL career.
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