2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs

Bruce Matson Posted On May 16, 2023

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.

The running back position can be very ambiguous from year to year. The value of running backs can run hot or cold depending on the market and where the running back is in their career. There are a lot of strategies dynasty gamers have when it comes to roster running backs. Typically, the goal is to maximize value while being built to win the league when the rest of the team is ready to compete.

Drafting top running backs in the first round of rookie drafts can be an easy way to get a young productive running back. The running back is locked into getting workload early in their career while having the talent profile to justify their draft capital. These are the types of running backs that dynasty gamers chase and want to hold on to for multiple years.

SITUATION

Name: Jahmyr Gibbs

Position: Running Back

Pro Team: Detroit Lions

College Team: Alabama

Draft Status: Round one, 12^th overall

The big shock of the 2023 NFL Draft came when the Detroit Lions selected Gibbs at 12^th overall. Going into the draft, many media outlets had him mocked to go either late in the first round or the early part of the second round. After the pick was made, there were rumors that other teams were interested in drafting him earlier than expected.

This pick created a lot of speculation. At the time, the Lions had David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift on the roster. Also, with how the market has been over the past several years for the running back position, the value hasn’t always been the best investment in taking a running back in the first round.

As we all know now, D’Andre Swift was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Lions earmarked Gibbs as a must-get asset for their offense. They plan to get him heavily involved in the offensive game plan early in his career. All-in-all, this is good news for dynasty gamers looking to draft Gibbs in rookie drafts.

TALENT

Jahmyr Gibbs Combine Results:

Height: 5’9’’

Weight: 199 lbs

Arm: 30 ½’’

Hand: 9 ¼’’

40-Yard Dash: 4.36 seconds

10-Yard Split: 1.52 seconds

Vertical Jump: 33.5’’

Broad Jump: N/A

Courtesy of MockDraftable.

Gibbs put on a show when he ran the 40-yard dash at the combine. He demonstrated that he has top-tier speed that sets him apart from most running backs in the NFL. His 1.52 10-yard split lets you know that he has a lot of pop off his step when sprinting. However, his 33.5-inch vertical ranks in the 37^th percentile among running back prospects. It’s also an indicator that his burst could have limitations. Considering he’s a lighter player with elite top-end speed, there’s a lot to be excited about regarding his prospect profile.

There are some questions about his size. Indeed, the league has few running backs at or below the 200-pound range providing high-end production. When you look at the smaller running backs, who did not perform over the years, almost all of them don’t have first-round draft capital invested in them, along with the homerun-hitting speed. Most of those players also have a major red flag in their prospect profile to go along with the size concerns.

OPPORTUNITY

Courtesy for 4for4.com

Gibbs will be sharing the backfield with David Montgomery. They should be one of the best running back tandems in the NFL. We are looking at your classic thunder and lightning scenario. Montgomery is pegged to doing the dirty work between the tackles and one short yardage and goal line situations. At the same time, Gibbs will be showcasing his explosiveness and catching passes out of the backfield.

D’Andre Swift saw 70 targets in 2022 and 78 targets in 2021. He averaged 5.5 targets per game during that time and 18.33 routes run. There’s a good chance that a large share of Swift’s previous workload will be funneled to Gibbs, if not more.

The Lions averaged 67 plays per game, with 57 percent of those plays designed to pass the ball. They average 27.9 seconds between plays while in neutral game scripts, ranking 14^th in the league, which is 1.2 seconds behind the Jacksonville Jaguars, who was the fastest team between plays in the NFL. With that being said, this is a fast-paced team who wants to throw the ball while also not forgetting about their rushing attack. They need running backs who are sound between the tackles and catching the ball out of the backfield. Both Gibbs and Montgomery have demonstrated this.

Jared Goff is another player in the equation that many people forget about. Last season he dished 20.4 percent of his targets to the running backs. Swift only appeared in 14 games last season, which means that rate could have been higher if his main pass-catching back could play an entire season. Nonetheless, Goff was still top-12 among quarterbacks with 300 or more dropbacks. He averaged 19.8 points per game with seven QB1 weeks last season. The volume in the passing game, combined with Gibbs’ strengths as a pass catcher, should marinate well in Detroit.

RISK

Courtesy of Sports-Reference.com

Gibbs eclipsed 1,000 scrimmage yards with two different collegiate programs at the Power Five level. He transferred to Alabama and was instantly a big part of the team’s offense. Considering he hit the ground running at both Georgia Tech and Alabama indicates that he has the potential to do that at the NFL level since he was able to transition from high school to college quickly.

He ranked 69^th among college running backs with 38 missed tackles. This is an indicator that there’s a risk that the Lions might be yearning for more if Gibbs can’t hit his upside at breaking tackles with the ball in his hands. The team has David Montgomery already on the roster, who is expected to handle the short-yardage and goal-line work. However, if Gibbs proves to be a liability in these situations, the team will always be looking to have a thunder-and-lightning scenario at the position. This could limit his upside and prevent him from being one of the top running backs in fantasy.

The other risk we are looking at with Gibbs is natural running back attrition. Running back is the hurt business. We all know this. Almost every running back in the league has been bitten by the injury bug. With him being a smaller framed running back, this could be a potential risk with a larger workload. No matter the size, this is the risk we have with every running back. It’s part of the game and should be factored in when projecting out a running back’s long-term player value.

MARKET

Courtesy of MFL Rookie ADP

Gibbs is currently being drafted in the top three in 1QB leagues. After Bijan Robinson, it’s a race between him and Jaxon Smith-Njigba for who comes off the board next. In Superflex leagues, you will usually see Robinson and the top three quarterbacks, Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, and CJ Stroud, get drafted before him. Due to his draft capital combined with his rookie profile, he is locked into getting selected in the top half of most rookie drafts. His ADP is going to hold steady throughout the off-season.

Courtesy of DLF’s Trade Analyzer

There’s a lot to take in when we look at Gibbs’ value on the trade analyzer. First off, he is valued at more than the 1.02 but less than the 1.01. This is true because right after Bijan Robinson gets selected, we typically see either Gibbs or Jaxon Smith-Njigba get selected. Also, his being valued more than the 1.02 indicates that he has the potential to be a 1.01 pick in any other draft class that doesn’t have generational talent as the top option.

When compared to the veterans, the trade analyzer has him comparable to Austin Ekeler, Kenneth Walker, and Travis Etienne in value. Devonta Smith, DK Metcalf, and Drake London are the wide receivers compared in value. As the data changes throughout the off-season with ADP, look for his value to change compared to some of the veterans. Typically, top rookie running backs will slowly rise in value as we get closer to the season.

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Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.