2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Tucker Kraft
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
SITUATION
Name: Tucker Kraft
Position: Tight End
Pro Team: Green Bay Packers
College Team: South Dakota State
Draft Status: Round three, Pick 78 overall
Kraft was drafted into a very ambiguous situation in Green Bay. His QB, Jordan Love, has only attempted 83 total passes in the NFL. The leading receiver from last season is now on the New York Jets, and the next leading receiver only had 611 receiving yards(in 14 games). No other player still on the team reached 500 yards receiving. That would typically be great news for a well-drafted TE with a quality receiving profile, but unfortunately, he was the third receiving option drafted by the team in 2023. Jayden Reed, WR, and Luke Musgrave, TE, were both drafted ahead of Kraft, showing us that he, at least, was not their number-one priority.
Analysts are torn on Jordan Love as a starting QB, with some saying he was a below-average prospect(they’re not wrong), while others point to the fact that he has had three seasons to learn from a hall-of-fame level QB in Aaron Rodgers. If Love proves to have taken strides over the past few seasons, this could be an exciting young team that you want as many pieces of as possible. On the other hand, If he plays like he did in college, this could be a situation to avoid entirely. Unfortunately, there’s really no way to know which side is right, beyond some context clues given to us by the Packers, by trading away Rodgers and giving Love a large one-year extension.
Because of the vague nature of the offense, it’s difficult to place too much trust in any one player. That leaves me looking for cheaper options, and Kraft definitely falls into that category. At the tight end position, he basically only has to beat out Musgrave, who has struggled to stay healthy or be productive throughout his college career, and Josiah Deguara, who will likely be relegated to third on the depth chart without injuries to Kraft and Musgrave. I like Kraft’s odds of seeing the field early and often.
TALENT
Tucker Kraft Combine Results:
Height: 6′ 5″
Weight: 254 lbs
Arm: 32 3/4″
Hand: 10″
40-Yard Dash: 4.69 seconds
10-Yard Split: 1.59 seconds
Vertical Jump: 34″
Broad Jump: 10′ 2″
Kraft has the ideal size for a TE while still coming out of the NFL Combine with the sixth-highest Athleticism Score. Tucker may not be the fastest guy on the field at any given moment, but he is above average in almost every athletic category.
While he doesn’t have the most productive college career, Kraft really stood out in 2021 by having the team’s second-most receiving yards and touchdowns, with 773 and 6, respectively. 2020 and 2022 weren’t as kind to him, as we saw Kraft miss almost all of 2020 and about half of the 2022 seasons with undisclosed injuries. We can take solace in the fact that his 348 receiving yards and three touchdowns through seven games in 2022 were on pace with his entire 2021 season.
The biggest question for Kraft will be how long it takes him to acclimate to the NFL, coming from an FCS(lower competition level) college program. While it could take some time to make that transition, waiting for rookie TEs to produce is a common occurrence.
OPPORTUNITY
As I said earlier in the article, Kraft walks into a wide-open TE corp, already jumping Deguara and multiple other tight ends, according to Ourlads. That leaves Musgrave as his main(only?) competition to see the field, and while neither has been the perfect picture of health, Kraft, at least has some college production to fall back on.
With no other receiving options on the team being proven, it’s not out of the question for Kraft to earn a goal-line role or at least become a safety blanket for the fledgling QB.
It will take some time for Kraft to build rapport with Jordan Love, especially if getting used to the new level of competition proves difficult, but I could see him taking over that position by mid-season.
RISK
Data Courtesy of Hosted Stats.
At this point, I’ve detailed the risks of Kraft substantively. Coming from a lower level of competition in the FCS, it very well could take him longer than Musgrave to acclimate to the NFL. While he put together an entire season of games in 2021, that was his only season out of three without missing multiple games. On top of all that, Kraft has an unproven QB at the helm, who is a complete unknown at this point. The silver lining in that department is Love will either become a capable starter or likely be replaced next season so that risk shouldn’t be a long-term one.
MARKET
Courtesy of DLF’s May SF Rookie ADP
Utilizing DLF’s May ADP, we can see Kraft being drafted in the mid-to-late fourth round, surrounded by many players drafted in the sixth and seventh rounds of the NFL draft or undrafted altogether.
In my personal rankings, I have Kraft closer to a third-round pick, but we can obviously take advantage of that disparity. While there is no player I would take over Kraft in this image, you could use the opportunity to move back from the third round while acquiring multiple fourth-round picks and/or future draft capital. For example, I recently traded 3.07 for two 2023 fourths and 2024 4th, acquiring Kraft and Charlie Jones with those ’23 fourths. That’s just one example, but I was happy with the outcome.
Clearly, we’re not talking about one of the elite options in this instance, but Tucker Kraft offers late-round upside at a position of need for most dynasty managers. Kraft’s opportunity, talent, and draft capital investment offer a lot of hope that he will be able to see the field early and often. Given that TEs generally hold their trade value through the first couple of seasons, even if it doesn’t pan out in year one, you can likely trade him for 2024 fourth and then re-roll.
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