One of the highlights of the fantasy football offseason has now concluded as the newest Mr. Irrelevant was announced on Saturday evening to conclude the 2023 NFL Draft. It has been a wild ride for this draft class, which once looked like it could change the dynasty landscape for years to come. Now, the group of incoming rookies has already been labeled as disappointing before even stepping on the field.
A few of the DLF Team members got together to enjoy the NFL Draft together and once things wrapped up, we couldn’t help ourselves. We had to mock draft. Without any further delay, here were the results of our three-round immediate reaction superflex, tight end premium, mock draft.
ROUND ONE:
1.01 Bijan Robinson, RB ATL
As many projected, Robinson was a top-ten pick, landing with the Atlanta Falcons. Although the team struggled to a 7-10 record a year ago, they actually possessed one of the most effective running games in the league. The Falcons led the league with 559 rushing attempts in 2023 and turned Day Three pick Tyler Allgeier into a 1,000-yard back. Robinson is not only the 1.01 but is also the dynasty RB1 overall.
1.02 Anthony Richardson, QB IND
We knew the quarterbacks would hear their respective names called early on Thursday, and that was true, for most. Despite being the third signal-caller selected, Richardson is the second pick here and is the favorite to earn a 1.02 rookie ADP in superflex rookie drafts. The dynasty and draft communities have discussed Richardson’s upside endlessly over the past few months. Now that he not only received the expected draft capital, but also landed in the ideal spot with the Colts and new head coach Shane Steichen, who helped to maximize Jalen Hurts’ upside with the Eagles.
1.03 Bryce Young, QB CAR
The top pick in the NFL Draft slides to the third spot here, which is understandable and expected, given the other options. We all know the story with Young at this point. The only real concern with the former Heisman winner is his size and the possible injury-related issues that could come from being the smallest quarterback in the league. Beyond that, Young has it all and should start from day one for the rebuilding Panthers.
1.04 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA
There are multiple strong options with the fourth overall pick but this time, it was the WR1 from the NFL Draft, Smith-Njigba. Despite not playing much in 2022, Smith-Njigba was the top wideout and will be groomed to take over for Tyler Lockett in Seattle. This landing spot likely hurts his short-term upside, given the Seahawks’ clear intention on focusing on the run game (more on that later) but should not diminish Smith-Njigba’s long-term dynasty value.
1.05 CJ Stroud, QB HOU
It was a wild ride for Stroud, a Heisman finalist in each of the past two years. The former Buckeye began the offseason as the most likely option to be the second pick in the NFL Draft, became the overwhelming favorite following the Panthers’ trade up to the top spot, and then was reportedly tumbling down the boards due to the poor result in the newest craze sweeping the NFL Draft community, the S2 Cognition Test. Ultimately, Stroud ended up just where we thought he’d be months ago, in line to be the Texans’ day-one starter.
1.06 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET
One of the biggest surprises of the opening round was the Lions’ selection of former Crimson Tide running back Gibbs. National reporters had made it clear teams valued Gibbs as a first-rounder but seemingly no one expected him to be a top-twelve pick. Following a trade down, the Lions pulled a shocker, adding Gibbs to their crowded running back room. This signaled the end of D’Andre Swift’s time in the Motor City, while Gibbs is expected to complement veteran David Montgomery in the rebuilt backfield.
1.07 Jordan Addison, WR MIN
As expected, former Biletnikoff Award winner Addison earned first-round draft capital as he was selected by the Minnesota Vikings. This is a plum landing spot as Addison will be in line to compete for Adam Thielen’s former role. With the Vikings throwing the ball at a high volume as superstar Justin Jefferson distracts the defense, Addison could be in for a big debut season.
1.08 Quentin Johnston, WR LAC
As the NFL Draft neared, the concerns and criticisms about Johnston’s game grew. Those include a large number of drops and the TCU product not playing up to his size. While those haven’t changed, Johnston was a first-round pick, selected by the Los Angeles Chargers in one of the most desirable offenses in the league. Like Smith-Njigba, Johnston could be in for a slow start as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams continue to start, but both players have had difficulty staying healthy in recent seasons.
1.09 Zay Flowers, WR BAL
The Ravens had a busy weekend. After agreeing to terms with quarterback Lamar Jackson on a five-year contract, the team went and got their franchise player some help, adding Boston College’s Flowers in the first round. While joining the Ravens’ pass-catching corps would not typically be viewed as a positive for a rookie receiver, Baltimore’s offense should look much different under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. This is a team that dynasty managers should not be afraid to invest in, especially with Jackson back in the flock.
1.10 Devon Achane, RB MIA
One of the big winners of the weekend from a dynasty value standpoint was Texas A&M’s Achane, the undersized playmaker. Head coach Mike McDaniel was caught asking Achane if he was still fast during their draft-night phone call, a good reminder that this offense loves speed. Achane joins a team that already boasted some of the fastest players in the league, including Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert. The Miami backfield is crowded but there should be early opportunity for Achane, which pushed him into the first round here.
1.11 Will Levis, QB TEN
One of the losers of the weekend was former Kentucky quarterback Levis, who shockingly fell into the second round, scooped up by the Titans, who traded up to grab their quarterback of the future. There was some late pre-draft smoke suggesting that Levis would be a top-two pick but that always seemed unlikely despite the Vegas odds. Ultimately, while the draft capital was a surprise, the landing spot is still a good one for Levis, who could replace veteran Ryan Tannehill as early as this coming season.
1.12 Dalton Kincaid, TE BUF
Entering draft weekend, there was uncertainty about which of the talented tight ends would be selected first. In the end, it wasn’t close as Kincaid was the only Round One tight end drafted. Oh yeah, he also gets to play in one of the league’s best offenses with one of the top quarterbacks in the game. Kincaid was a huge winner of the weekend.
ROUND TWO:
2.01 Zach Charbonnet, RB SEA
2.02 Michael Mayer, TE LV
2.03 Marvin Mims, WR DEN
2.04 Josh Downs, WR IND
2.05 Tyjae Spears, RB TEN
2.06 Jayden Reed, WR GB
2.07 Kendre Miller, RB NO
2.08 Roschon Johnson, RB CHI
2.09 Sam LaPorta, TE DET
2.10 Rashee Rice, WR KC
2.11 Jonathan Mingo, WR CAR
2.12 Luke Musgrave, TE GB
The dynasty community’s collective jaws dropped when the Day Two pick was announced, sending Charbonnet to Seattle. The Seahawks had just added Kenneth Walker in last year’s second round and he had become one of the most valuable backs in the dynasty format. Now, we’re left to question how Pete Carroll and the Hawks will use the duo. Obviously, the pairing also hurts Charbonnet, which is how he ended up falling to the second round of this draft.
Former Tulane running back Spears looked like a huge dynasty winner as he earned Day Two draft capital and a nice landing spot to boot in Tennessee. Then came the dreaded medical reports from ESPN and NFL insiders informing us that after multiple knee injuries, Spears has been playing without an ACL in one knee. This becomes a tricky evaluation from a dynasty standpoint. Obviously, the Titans felt confident enough to use a valuable pick on Spears, but the long-term outlook suggests Spears could be limited to a relatively short career. You know, like most running backs that enter the league.
Downs and Mims were popular picks in this second-round range leading up to the NFL Draft, but a trio of receivers were selected ahead of that duo which should force dynasty managers to reevaluate how the rookie receivers should be ranked. Those three include Reed, Rice, and Mingo. All three will have a path to immediate playing time based on their draft capital and landing spot and all three are also big-time dynasty winners from the weekend.
One of the most-anticipated parts of the weekend for dynasty players was some type of clarity about the running back position. With a tightly-packed third tier, landing spots and draft capital were necessary to decipher how to value and rank the rookie backs. Two of the big winners among this group were Miller and Johnson. While the Saints backfield is crowded, there is much uncertainty, including the off-field status of veteran Alvin Kamara. Even if Kamara is out of the way temporarily, recently-signed Jamaal Williams should serve as tough competition for the rookie. There’s a similar story for Johnson in Chicago, though the competition is not as problematic, with Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman standing in the rookie’s way.
ROUND THREE:
3.01 Jalin Hyatt, WR NYG
3.02 Cedric Tillman, WR CLE
3.03 Hendon Hooker, QB DET
3.04 Tank Dell, WR HOU
3.05 Chase Brown, RB CIN
3.06 Tank Bigsby, RB JAX
3.07 Israel Abanikanda, RB NYJ
3.08 Tucker Kraft, TE GB
3.09 Tyler Scott, WR CHI
3.10 Zach Evans, RB LAR
3.11 Luke Schoonmaker, TE DAL
3.12 Kayshon Boutte, WR NE
With multiple players rising up into the second round, someone had to fall. The fallers mostly come from Knoxville, as the trio of Hyatt, Tillman, and Hooker begin the third round. All three players were selected on Day Two. While this would normally be a positive, both Hyatt and Hooker had been sometimes projected as first-rounders.
Running backs Bigsby and Abanikanda are now set to play behind established young starters in Travis Etienne and Breece Hall, respectively. That’s clearly not a positive for the value of either player. It is noteworthy that the Jets were reportedly interested in selecting Gibbs if he had fallen to them. That could be a signal that the team is either concerned about Breece Hall’s ACL recovery or simply interested in using multiple backs. Regardless, Abanikanda will compete with Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight for the Jets’ depth spots.
A pair of players once viewed as first-round dynasty rookie picks barely snuck into the end of the third round following a Draft tumble. Evans was the very early favorite to be the RB3 in the class before his game began getting dissected and it became obvious the demand was not going to be there. Although he did fall all the way to the seventh round, joining the Rams is actually a solid landing spot following the Cam Akers soap opera of last season. Boutte was also a late Day Three pick and landed with the Patriots. The good news is that there is plenty of opportunity with the New England receiving corps. The bad news is Boutte might not make the final roster if his reported off-field antics continue in the pros. Maybe Bill Belichick will be able to make a huge impact and get the most out of Boutte’s game.
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Great mock! Do you move any of the TE noticeably up if it were a TEP league?
Christopher, thanks for the question…it was a tight end premium mock – “A few of the DLF Team members got together to enjoy the NFL Draft together and once things wrapped up, we couldn’t help ourselves. We had to mock draft. Without any further delay, here were the results of our three-round immediate reaction superflex, tight end premium, mock draft.”
I think the reason it may not seem like it at first glance is the fact that the TE position is so deep and they’re bunched up to a certain degree. I think Mayer lands in a terrific spot, but went later than expected in the draft (and by position). Kincaid has to deal w/ Knox, Detroit hasn’t consistently used a TE as a primary weapon, Green Bay drafted a 2nd tight end a round later, etc.
Oh I’m sorry! I did skim the intro but I’ll be honest I did jump more to the mock. Reading is power 😆!
I feel that your comment about reconsidering the valuations of guys like rice and Mingo is important. As it stands, I simply cannot see how someone like downs is going to be considered before those 2 guys. I feel there’s an argument to be had as well in taking those guys over flowers. Having a tough time getting over the landing spot, and it’s going to be an uphill battle for him to even be their WR2. Still think Bateman’s better.
