2023 NFL Draft: What We Expect on Day Three
With the first three rounds of the NFL Draft complete we now have a good understanding of how the meat and potatoes of our rookie drafts are going to taste. Rounds four through seven will round up the back-end of our rookie drafts and possibly fill a couple of spots in the second round.
The talent pool is starting to get shallow. The quarterback and wide receiver positions are both almost tapped out, while the running back position is still going strong with plenty of talent left on the board. We saw a big run on tight ends on Friday night, leaving not much talent on the board for teams to draft.
This will be the part of the draft where we find diamonds in the rough. This will also be part of the draft where some dynasty gamers will overvalue in rookie drafts allowing some of our favorite players from the first three rounds to slide more spots than they should in our rookie drafts.
With the draft weekend almost complete, let’s take a look at who will be available on day three.
QUARTERBACK
Will Levis finally got drafted by the Tennessee Titans at 33rd overall. The goal is for him to take over as Ryan Tannehill’s replacement at some point. Hendon Hooker was the only other quarterback to get drafted on Friday night. The Detroit Lions drafted him in the third round as a developmental backup.
As we head into the final day of the draft, we should expect the rest of the quarterbacks on the board to be future backups and camp bodies. There are a few notable names left on the board. Tanner McKee from Stanford should be one of the first quarterbacks drafted tomorrow. Keep an eye on Dorian Thompson-Robinson as he has a lot of experience at the college level and the rushing ability to make an impact in fantasy.
A lot of scouts like Jaren Hall from BYU. He’s a dual-threat quarterback with a strong arm. Everyone is waiting to see where Stetson Bennett from Georgia and Max Duggan from TCU go in the draft. Both players carry the name cache from facing off against each other in the College Football Playoff.
TOP AVAILABLE ROOKIES
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
Tanner McKee
Jaren Hall
Jake Haener
Stetson Bennett
Max Duggan
RUNNING BACK
We only saw one running back come off the board in the second round and that was Zach Charbonnet. He got drafted by the Seattle Seahawks and will be sharing the backfield with Kenneth Walker. The third round turned up the pace at drafting running backs. Kendre Miller was the first running back drafted in the third round and was drafted by the Saints. After him we saw Tyjae Spears get drafted by the Titans, Devon Achane selected by the Dolphins, and Tank Bigsby drafted by the Jaguars.
There are still a lot of good running backs left on the board. Roschon Johnson from Texas is a big physical back who can handle a heavy workload. Everyone was interested in Zach Evans earlier this off-season. He’s a hyper-athletic running prospect who has impressive tape. Israel Abanikanda had a very productive season last year at Pitt and has good size-adjusted athleticism.
There are about ten more names that have the talent to make an impact at the NFL level. Another name to watch is Chase Brown from Illinois. He was one of the most productive running backs in college football last year. Kenny McIntosh from Georgia is one of the best receiving backs in the class. Deuce Vaughn from Kansas State is a smaller running back who has one of the best production profiles in the class. Evan Hull from Northwestern is a bigger back that can catch the ball out of the backfield.
Expect a run on running backs in the fourth round. Then after the run, we will see running backs trickle off the board in rounds five through seven. Typically, day three running backs are not the best investment. Although the sunk cost is still low on these players, we are going to see a deeper pool of talent in the fourth round compared to other years. It’s important to remain objective. The best rule of thumb would be to measure the player’s production profile with the ambiguity of his team’s new running back depth chart. Good players with a perceived fast path to starting have better odds of developing into fantasy assets. Sounds like common sense but things get hard to see when the water starts getting murky.
Keep an eye on Sean Tucker. He wasn’t eligible to compete at the NFL Combine due to a heart condition. He was recently cleared and was able to do his pro day. However, the NFL might take a hard stance on him depending on how severe his heart condition is.
TOP AVAILABLE ROOKIES
Roschon Johnson
Zach Evans
Israel Abanikanda
Kenny McIntosh
Chase Brown
Evan Hull
Deuce Vaughn
DeWayne McBride
Sean Tucker
WIDE RECEIVER
Ten wide receivers came off the board on Friday night. Counting the first two rounds, we now have 14 names scratched off the board at the wide receiver position. The player pool is now decimated as we head into the final day of the draft. Most of our favorite targets for dynasty are now on their new NFL teams.
Everybody needs to keep an eye on Kayshon Boutte. He could fall further in the draft or get drafted into a prime situation in the early part of the fourth round. Trey Palmer from Nebraska is another wide receiver to look out for. He was very productive last season and posted good size-adjusted athleticism at the NFL Combine. AT Perry from Wake Forrest has an impressive highlight tape. He ramped up his production during the last couple of years of his career. Parker Washington is a big slot receiver who is just 21 years old. He has good ball skills and enough talent to climb an NFL depth chart.
TOP AVAILABLE ROOKIES
Kayshon Boutte
AT Perry
Xavier Hutchinson
Trey Palmer
Parker Washington
Rakim Jarrett
Puka Nacua
TIGHT END
There were eight tight ends drafted on day two. Michael Mayer finally came off the board and was drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders in the second round. Darnell Washington fell to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the third round. The Dallas Cowboys surprised everyone by drafting Michigan tight end Luke Schoonmaker.
It was a deep tight-end class going into the draft, but the player pool is drying up as we get into day three. There’s still some talent left on the board. We should expect the top tight ends to get drafted early in the fourth round.
Payne Durham from Purdue is one of the top tight ends left. He’s a good receiving threat who does most of his work out of the slot. Will Mallory from Miami is a developmental prospect who has top-tier size-adjusted athleticism. Josh Whyle from Cincinnati is another top tight end that a lot of scouts had highly graded going into the draft.
TOP AVAILABLE ROOKIES
Payne Durham
Will Mallory
Josh Whyle
