Editor’s Note: This live analysis of the 2023 NFL Draft will provide pick-by-pick dynasty perspective in the early rounds, transitioning to round-by-round analysis as we get into day three. The latest udpates will always appear at the bottom of the post. We will continue providing more in-depth recaps and breakdowns, which you can find here.
The time is here! Welcome to the 2023 NFL Draft. I will be covering all the offensive skill position selections and giving an instant reaction for the player and their respective team. I am excited to see what will transpire as the draft continues throughout the weekend.
Round 1: 4/27, rounds 2/3: 4/28, and rounds 4-7: 4/29
ROUND ONE ANALYSIS (Thursday, April 27th):
Pick 1.01 (1 Overall): Bryce Young, QB CAR
Carolina has found their potential franchise quarterback. Concerns surrounding Young’s height will linger until he steps on the field. Carolina does not (currently) have an exciting skill position group — Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, Hayden Hurst, and Miles Sanders are veteran players to help develop Young. Previous dynasty darlings Laviska Shenault and Terrace Marshall are looking to make an impact, too.
Pick 1.02 (2 Overall): C.J. Stroud, QB HOU
The carousal involving the second overall pick ends up being Stroud. Houston has a new coaching staff and have their potential franchise quarterback, too. Houston signed Dalton Schultz and Robert Woods to join Nico Collins and John Metchie to be the main receiving targets. Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary will look to be thunder and lighting, a potential duo to help alleviate pressure from Stroud. I am interested to see what Houston will do with their upcoming picks. Do they surround Stroud with more talent? Build the offensive line?
Well, Houston traded to select at the 1.03. I am curious to see what the compensation is.
Update: Trade terms: Houston sends 12, 33, a 2024 1st and a 2024 3rd to Arizona for 3 and 105.
Pick 1.04 (4 Overall): Anthony Richardson, QB IND
Wow! Many believed Indianapolis would select Will Levis. They opt for the most athletic quarterback according to RAS. The NFL does seem to be transitioning to athletic quarterbacks with big arms. If you are in on Richardson, you are in. If you are out on Richardson, you are still out. We knew he would be going round one. He will be throwing to Michael Pittman and additional dynasty notable players. I am interested to see the development with Alec Pierce (WR) and Jelani Woods (TE).
Jonathan Taylor will help Richardson, too. Defenses will need to contain Taylor. I will be looking forward to see what type of scheme, or playbook change Indianapolis will implement. Shane Steichen comes over from Philadelphia who was the offensive coordinator for Jalen Hurts.
Pick 1.08 (8 Overall): Bijan Robinson, RB ATL
Atlanta is loading up on offensive talent. Three straight drafts taking an offensive skill position within the top 10 picks. Arthur Smith committed to the run game in 2022 and now we definitely expect this to continue in 2023. Kyle Pitts will be returning from his ACL injury and Drake London will look to take a second-year leap with Desmond Ridder. This run-first offense does make me nervous for the receiving production, and hence the dynasty values of Pitts and London. Robinson should be a lock to have 225+ touches and is (still) the RB1. Tyler Allgeier does take a value hit, however this offense also gave 95 carries to Caleb Huntley and Avery Williams. There will be a role for him to play.
This is an important reminder the NFL does not care for our dynasty teams. Atlanta will be an intriguing offense to watch this season.
Pick 1.12 (12 Overall): Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET
Wow! This pick is out of left field. Brad Holmes has a tremendous history at drafting, and his first pick he lands their new running back. We are all curious what will happen with D’Andre Swift now. Until we find out what will happen, it is hard to evaluate Gibbs, but we must. We know he has a receiving skill set and would pair well with David Montgomery. Similarly to how Swift and Jamaal Williams were utilized in 2022.
This is noteworthy draft capital as many were hoping for late first round. This definitely means they plan on utilizing his talents immediately.
Pick 1.20 (20 Overall): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA
This is an interesting selection. He enters a wide receiver room with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. They will be great mentors for Smith-Njigba. Geno Smith is an intriguing superflex quarterback. Recently signing his three-year extension, Seattle spends their first round pick on helping him out. We were hoping for a clear WR1 role, but long-term this is great for Seattle. Talent will always rise to the top and Seattle may look to spread the ball around to their three wide receivers.
In dynasty we should bet on the talent. Smith-Njigba was favored to be the 1.04 pre-draft (superflex) and he should not fall past the 1.05.
Pick 1.21 (21 Overall): Quentin Johnston, WR LAC
The Chargers love their big wide receivers. This pick is slightly different from the previous pick, as Johnston has a clear path to be the WR1 in a couple years. While as Smith-Njigba will have to compete with Metcalf. The 2023 season may not be special, as we have seen with recent first round wide receivers. The Chargers are looking to compete now and they are building for the future with Justin Herbert. Plus, Kellen Moore will be bringing a fresh new offense for the Chargers.
Johnston is intriguing when you consider he may be the Chargers WR1 in 2024. I am optimistic his development will go to plan for the Chargers.
Pick 1.22 (22 Overall): Zay Flowers, WR BAL
Today Baltimore has extended Lamar Jackson and drafted him a first round wide receiver. Flowers is a dynamic player to pair with Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham, and Mark Andrews in the receiving game. Assuming J.K. Dobbins is healthy, this offense will be fun to watch. A first round wide receiver is great for their future outlook. Flowers and risen up dynasty rookie ranks and may jump a few spots now. The offense will have a scheme change and it does appear they will be passing the ball more in 2023.
Pick 1.23 (23 Overall): Jordan Addison, WR MIN
Goodbye Adam Thielen, hello Jordan Addison. Pairing Addison with Justin Jefferson is scary. Kirk Cousins consistently produces and having an upgrade at wide receiver (from Thielen) will continue the success. It is somewhat surprising to see Addison fall to 23 but we do love the landing spot here. The WR2 role is solidified and Addison should be seeing 100+ targets (K.J. Osborn got 90, Thielen 107). The offense will be lethal with T.J. Hockenson, Addison, and Jefferson.
Pick 1.25 (25 Overall): Dalton Kincaid, TE BUF
The first tight end is off the board and in the first round. You may think Dawson Knox will be irrelevant, but Jeff Bell is saying Buffalo will be running 12-personnel. They found a dynamic pass-catcher and could be utilized in the slot, too. The history with the tight end usage for Buffalo may be concerning. This is more indicative on Knox than the position. Kincaid is a unique talent and Buffalo agrees with spending a first round selection on him. Kincaid may be your TE1 or he may be your TE2, this first round draft capital should not necessarily sway you from TE2 to TE1.
I am excited nonetheless and cannot wait to see how he fairs in year one with claiming the TE1 role.
Round 1 Reaction: 10 First Round Selections
The first round went nearly as expected, at least for a dynasty perspective. The wide receivers assumed to get first round capital did. The running backs assumed to get first round capital did. We thought a tight end or two would get first round capital and they did.
The notable selections were from the quarterback side. We assumed Young would go to Carolina, but Houston had various reports circulating with potentially selecting a defensive player. They ended up selecting Stroud. Richardson to Indianapolis was a surprising selection, as they were reported to be interested in Will Levis. Speaking of, Levis dropped out of the first round, and this means he likely should be off first round superflex drafts too. Hendon Hooker had first round traction and he will be waiting for his name to be called as well.
When looking at landing spots, and specifically thinking of wide receivers, it will be important to note talent first. It is also important to know the pecking order they likely will fall under. Addison and Smith-Njigba may not become the teams WR1. This does not mean they will never finish as a WR1. Teammates can accomplish this.
Robinson was an obvious first round lock. Landing in Atlanta will guarantee volume in a run-first offense. Gibbs was the surprising pick, specifically at 12 to Detroit. I trust Holmes’ selection here, albeit seems a little steep for a player who may not be a workhorse. It seems obvious this first season with signing Montgomery. Holmes was with the Rams when they drafted Gurley in round one, and as we know he was a workhorse.
To finish with the tight end, Kincaid will be an intriguing asset. First round capital is important, I just think it matters for wide receivers and running backs more. Kincaid can claim the second target role in the Buffalo offense.
I am excited for rounds two and three as there are notable players remaining to be selected. The draft continues 4/28 at 7 P.M. Eastern.
ROUND TWO (FRIDAY April 28th):
Round two is about to start. I am excited to see how rounds two and three transpire.
Notable players remaining:
QB: Will Levis, Hendon Hooker
RB: Zach Charbonett, Zach Evans, Kendre Miller, Devon Achane, Tyjae Spears
WR: Josh Downs, Jalin Hyatt, Marvin Mims, Jonathan Mingo, Cedric Tillman
TE: Michael Mayer, Luke Musgrave, Sam LaPorta
Pick 2.02 (33 Overall): Will Levis, QB TEN
Tennessee traded up to select Levis. Ryan Tannehill is 35 years old and likely is entering his last season, at least in Tennessee. Malik Willis did not pan out and they are changing their sights to Levis. They pair him with first round offensive tackle, Peter Skoronski. The future may be found within these two picks. The future at the skill position players will revolve around Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo, who are hoping for a second-year leap.
It was disapointing to see Levis fall out of the first round. The second selection in the second, and notably a trade up, is at least a consolation. I would like to hope he will get starts during the 2023 season.
Pick 2.03(34 Overall): Sam LaPorta, TE DET
The second, yes second, tight end off the board. LaPorta heads to Detroit where he will look to make an immediate impact. He is my favorite tight end from this class. This is an intriguing landing spot. Jameson Williams is suspended six games leaving room for a second target to emerge. Detroit has now drafted a running back and a tight end within the first 34 selections. The offense is ready to take a step forward. Jared Goff is an intriguing superflex asset right now.
LaPorta will be able to claim the TE1 role. He will compete to be a top-target on the team, depending on how Gibbs is utilized.
Pick 2.04 (35 Overall): Michael Mayer, TE LV
Just like that, Mayer is selected. Las Vegas traded away Darren Waller and have found his replacement. Mayer will not blow you away with speed, but we know he has reliable hands. He will pair with Davante Adams to help Jimmy Garapollo in his first year in Las Vegas. Like LaPorta, he will look to be a top target on the team. This is what we want out of our tight ends.
Another intriguing landing spot for a tight end. Mayer being the TE3 selected should not sway you away from keeping him as your TE1. He was drafted within the first 40 selections. In 2020 Cole Kmet was the first tight end drafted at pick 43.
Pick 2.08 (39 Overall): Jonathan Mingo, WR CAR
This is an interesting pick that will change the dynasty rankings. Mingo gets second round draft capital and will pair with Bryce Young. The Carolina offense is looking not too shabby on paper. Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark are veteran wide receivers who will be able to (hopefully) help mentor Mingo. There is an opportunity for him to claim the top-target. This could be a developmental pick for all we know. Carolina is putting pieces around their new franchise quarterback.
He has an intriguing profile with a respectable 4.46 speed. Color me intrigued here, but this may be due to the draft capital.
Pick 2.11 (42 Overall): Luke Musgrave, TE GB
Another talented tight end is coming off the board. Green Bay selects an offensive weapon to pair with new starting quarterback, Jordan Love. Musgrave is an athletic tight end and has 4.61 speed. Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and now Musgrave will look to provide Love with a reliable future. Aaron Jones will help relieve any pressure from the offense, and hopefully A.J. Dillon can contribute.
We have had three tight ends off the board in the second round and Musgrave has solidified himself as a second round selection in rookie drafts.
Pick 2.19 (50 Overall): Jayden Reed, WR GB
Green Bay selected back-to-back offensive players. This time with Reed. A surprising pick with having a few other notable wide receivers on the board. Second round capital is important here. Looks like Reed will look to claim the WR2 role in the Green Bay offense. Love gets another fast player to pair with Watson and the previous Musgrave.
Green Bay is investing into their offense and I am intrigued with the young talent they have.
Pick 2.21 (52 Overall): Zach Charbonett, RB SEA
Welp, Seattle has invested early draft capital into another running back. Last year with Ken Walker and now Charbonett. I am curious on how this split will happen. You do not spend a second round pick and let the player develop and learn for his rookie year. It is important to ensure health at the running back position, and now Seattle has two talented running backs.
This does not bode well for the dynasty outlook for both running backs. I was hoping to see Charbonett claim the RB1 role for a team. It may seem Walker can handle the rushing attempts and Charbonett can claim the passing down work with carries mixed in? That is an optimistic outlook on the duo.
Charbonett or Smith-Njigba will take a big hit. Seattle will need to commit to the passing game or rushing game to elevate their immediate impact. There is a chance they trade Tyler Lockett. However, they are a contending team and depth matters.
Pick 2.24 (55 Overall): Rashee Rice, WR KC
Patrick Mahomes gets another weapon here in which they traded up to select. Rice will join Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore as the main wide receiver targets. There is an opportunity for Rice to claim the WR1 role for the team. He is coming off a 96 reception and 1,355 yard senior season at SMU.
This is another player who will rise in dynasty rankings with second round draft capital and notable players like Jalin Hyatt and Josh Downs still on the board.
Pick 2.27 (58 Overall): Luke Schoonmaker, TE DAL
Another tight end looking to make an immediate impact and claim the TE1 role on their team. Schoonmaker is another athletic tight end (4.63 speed) and exactly what we want, speaking from an athleticism standpoint. It should be noted Dallas traded for Brandin Cooks and will have Michael Gallup return to full health from his ACL injury. The high-powered offense may have enough to go around, however, we will be unable to predict when this will happen. We can feel confident in CeeDee Lamb. Michigan’s offense held back all offensive weapons, Dallas may have found a gem in Schoonmaker being held back in college at Michigan.
I am intrigued with this selection nonetheless. Second round draft capital for a tight end is important.
Pick 2.30 (61 Overall): Brenton Strange, TE JAX
Continuing on the tradition of the second round, Jacksonville selects another tight end. Evan Engram did not receive a franchise tag and Jacksonville is looking for depth at the position. Strange will be able to provide support with his blocking skills. This is an interesting selection as Darnell Washington is still available.
I am unsure how to view his dynasty outlook with being in a crowded offense and currently behind Engram at the position.
Pick 2.32 (63 Overall): Marvin Mims, WR DEN
Denver traded up to make this selection. I always like when teams do this, as it will tell us they really wanted the player. Mims comes to a wide receiver room as the likely third option. Sean Payton is looking to have Denver bounce back this year and adds an additional weapon for Russell Wilson. The offense may be looking to commit to the passing game.
Mims has 4.38 speed and will be a unique receiving threat for Denver.
Round 2 Reaction: 11 Second Round Selections
The second round was dedicated to the tight ends. If you need young depth at the position, it will be easy to find one in the second round of rookie drafts. The dynasty landscape may be changing at the position. We have an influx of young talent here with having five tight ends drafted in the second round.
We also saw four wide receivers selected. There were a few notable names who did not get round two draft capital. I think it is safe to assume it was shocking to see Jonathan Mingo, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, and Marvin Mims as the wide receivers selected in the second round.
Will Levis was the only quarterback selected. Tennessee traded up to select him at pick 34. They miss out on the fifth-year option, however, Levis may have an opportunity to start games this season. He will be able to learn behind a veteran quarterback in Ryan Tannehill.
Zach Charbonett was the only running back to be drafted. It is not as exciting as he will be teaming up with Ken Walker, Seattle’s second round pick last year.
This was a surprising second round, but I am absolutely here for the chaos it will be causing in rookie drafts and rankings.
ROUND THREE ANALYSIS (FRIDAY April 28th):
The third round is an interesting round. We may see some intriguing selections. Let’s get right into it.
Pick 3.05 (68 Overall): Hendon Hooker, QB DET
Detroit has drafted a running back, tight end, and now a quarterback. Hooker is recovering from his ACL injury and will be able to learn behind veteran Jared Goff. He is expected to be medically cleared near the start of the regular season. This means he will miss important development time during training camp. This is a selection that makes sense for Detroit. Hooker will be able to learn and develop behind Goff for the year. Hooker is worth a selection in the second round of superflex rookie drafts, similar to Desmond Ridder from last year.
Detroit will then have to make a decision during the 2024 offseason on the future at the quarterback position. Goff is able to be cut with having a limited dead cap hit.
Pick 3.06 (69 Overall): Nathaniel Dell, WR HOU
Houston adds a wide receiver to surround first round selection, C.J. Stroud. The depth chart is wide open for Dell to compete for meaningful opportunities and snaps. He dominated his last two collegiate seasons accumulating 199 receptions and 2,727 yards. He is small but the league has shown they do not necessarily care about heigh recently. I am intrigued by this selection given the open depth chart and his ability to get open. An important trait for a wide receiver.
Houston added Robert Woods and will have John Metchie returning for his sophomore season. Dalton Schultz was also signed to improve the tight end position. Dell could claim the slot role.
Pick 3.08 (71 Overall): Kendre Miller, RB NO
New Orleans has added running back depth with Miller. They signed Jamaal Williams in the offseason and there is a looming legal case surrounding Alvin Kamara. There is never a problem to have depth at this position. This also makes me question if they know information about Kamara.
Miller may step into a meaningful role and third round capital is not the worst for a running back. I am intrigued by this landing spot and am absolutely targeting Miller in rookie drafts. He rushed for 1,399 yards and 17 touchdowns in his final collegiate season.
Pick 3.10 (73 Overall): Jalin Hyatt, WR NYG
Hyatt had first round hype, with second round hopeful draft capital entering this draft. The Giants traded up to select him with an obvious need at the position. They have added speed at the position and are surrounding Daniel Jones with talent. The Giants will look to take a second year leap forward with Brian Daboll.
Hyatt adds 4.40 speed to the team. Darren Waller still figures to be the main target pending health. Hyatt in the third round takes pressure off his expectations with Wan’Dale Robinson returning from injury as well. Hyatt does take a slight value hit with his drop to the third round. It is intriguing giving the opportunity to have a path to targets, at least.
Pick 3.11 (74 Overall): Cedric Tillman, WR CLE
Back-to-back collegiate teammates being selected here is cool. Cleveland gets a physical presence to pair with Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku. This move is interesting as Moore can solidify a potential slot role and Tillman can claim the “X” role at the position.
He will have the opportunity to develop behind Cooper and Moore. We do love a wide receiver who is able to make an immediate impact but the third round draft capital will temper expectations, especially if he is the fourth target on the team. Deshaun Watson is looking to have a bounce back year after having a disappointing 2022 season.
Pick 3.11 (78 Overall): Tucker Kraft, TE GB
Green Bay selects… another tight end? They may be looking to run heavy two tight end sets. They are going all in on weapons for Love. It is funny Green Bay waits until Aaron Rodgers leaves to invest in offensive skill position players. Kraft and Musgrave will be a dynamic duo, and I hope they do decided to involve both in the offense immediately. The offensive is open for competition, but I think it is safe to assume Christian Watson will be heavily involved.
I was hoping to see Kraft land in a spot to compete for the lead role. I will be looking forward to seeing how the two tight ends fair in this offense. Musgrave has the potential to line up at slot with Kraft as the inline tight end.
Pick 3.12 (79 Overall): Josh Downs, WR IND
I like this selection for Indianapolis. They are getting their new franchise quarterback additional weapons in Downs. He is a small receiver but will pair well with Michael Pittman. He may be able to fill nicely into the slot role and accumulate targets. He will look to get open in the middle of the field and use his playmaking ability to create after the catch.
The WR2 role is open in this offense looking to have a fresh start with a new scheme. Their new head coach comes over from Philadelphia — Jalen Hurts to Anthony Richardson.
Pick 3.14 (81 Overall): Tyjae Spears, RB TEN
Derrick Henry may not be traded. Spears will be a perfect compliment to Henry as the change-of-pace running back. He is explosive and will add an additional threat to the Tennessee offense. They may be looking to the future with Levis and Spears.
Both players are able to learn behind veterans and take time to develop properly. Spears offers a unique burst trait and can create big plays at any moment. Getting day two draft capital is intriguing and I am looking forward to seeing how he is utilized in year one.
Pick 3.17 (84 Overall): Devon Achane, RB MIA
Another explosive running back off the board in an offense looking for exactly that. Achane lands in an eye opening spot in Miami. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are not a threat to stop Achane from claiming the RB1 role — his 4.32 speed is an additional threat to pair with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
I am curious on where this will drive his dynasty ranking and ADP in rookie drafts. I like this spot for him, seems ideal.
Pick 3.21 (88 Overall): Tank Bigsby, RB JAX
A perfect compliment to pair with Travis Etienne. Bigsby will be able to run hard and add a dimension to the offense. This is similar to Walker and Charbonett, at least Jacksonville spent a third round selection instead of a second. I like this pairing and the Jaguar offense continues to be invested in.
There is a role for Bigsby in this offense. Will it be relevant as a flex option in your leagues? Who will take the goalline work? Etienne saw 10 carries within five yards of the end zone, for reference Nick Chubb had 12. I am interested to see the role he receives and if he can be a legitimate threat to Etienne.
Pick 3.26 (93 Overall): Darnell Washington, TE PIT
Pittsburgh takes Washington in the third round. It has been reportded he fell in the draft due to a concern with a knee injury. Pittsburgh takes a chance here and finds a potential meaningful player for their team. He is a noted blocker and may provide additional support for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. He is athletic but is looking to be the fifth option on the team.
He will look to take time to return to full health and develop behind Pat Freiermuth. I am not intrigued by this landing spot as a dynasty asset. He will be competing with George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, too. There is a potential for the 12 personnel scheme, a two tight end system.
Pick 3.27 (94 Overall): Michael Wilson, WR ARI
Wilson had an intriguing combine and likely boosted his value. Arizona takes him in the third round to help build depth at the position. Marquise Brown figures to lead the team and it is assumed they are looking for depth because DeAndre Hopkins would like to find a new home. I like this pick to add a potential “X” wide receiver for Kyler Murray, when he returns to full health.
He may be a surprising pick but he has seen his stock rise throughout the draft process. I am intrigued with his round three draft capital and landing spot with Arizona.
Pick 3.33 (100 Overall): Tre Tucker, WR LV
Las Vegas is adding to the offense and providing Jimmy Garapollo with potential weapons.First Michael Mayer and now Tucker. He is a converted wide receiver and provides 4.40 speed, a need for the offense. My main takeaway from this selection is Las Vegas wanted him to be on their team as many people may think this was a reach.
He should be a name to watch in rookie drafts. This draft capital is important.
Pick 3.34 (101 Overall): Cameron Latu, TE SF
San Francisco adds tight end depth. Latu will be able to develop and learn behind George Kittle. He does not have the athleticism similar to Kittle and his 4.78 speed is not intriguing to me. He reportedly does have solid blocking abilities, which may be a reason for this selection. Not every skill position selection will translate to points, they may mean more to their NFL team.
It does seem, to me, San Francisco had needs at other positions. This may make me circulate back on Latu and reevaluate him. It seems there have been a record setting amount of tight ends drafted. Third round draft capital should not be avoided at this position.
Round 3 Reaction: 14 Third Round Selections
The third round was exciting. There are talented players landing in spots looking to make an immediate impact across all positions. There are talented players landing in spots looking to develop with tempered expectations.
In dynasty we need to evaluate these variables. Which players will be looking to make an immediate impact and which players are looking to develop. An immediate impact could be Jalin Hyatt, as he can battle for the WR1 role on the Giants. A development player could be Cedric Tillman who will be behind Amari Cooper and presumably Elijah Moore. The commitments from both teams tell us they are looking to pass the ball and having day two draft capital is intriguing for wide receivers.
It was surprising to see Darnell Washington drop to the third round. He finds himself behind Pat Freiermuth, too. There is potential for a 12 personnel change for the offense, and he may find himself on the field more than you may expect. Tucker Kraft joins Luke Musgrave with the Packers. There could be room for both to contribute. Cameron Latu was drafted to San Francisco where he teams up with George Kittle. He was one of three collegiate tight ends to be invited to Kittle’s Tight End University in 2022.
Hendon Hooker was the only quarterback to be selected. Detroit is an ideal landing spot, though the draft capital is not. Regardless, he will be able to recover from his injury and learn the system behind Jared Goff. Detroit is not married to Hooker as their future quarterback. He may be able to claim the starting job, like Desmond Ridder and Atlanta.
I wanted to end at the running back position. Kendre Miller, Tyjae Spears, Tank Bigsby, and Devon Achane find themselves in intriguing landing spots. Achane is the most notable with the highest odds to claim the RB1 role. The remaining three may find a meaningful role for their teams. I prefer second round draft capital, but third round should be evaluated on an individual basis.
ROUND 4-7 ANALYSIS (Saturday April 29th):
These rounds will be a little different. If there is a notable selection I will single them out, while grouping together the positions as they are drafted. We have a recent history of notable selections like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Dameon Pierce. They were drafted to situations where they were able to make an immediate impact, and did. However, it does seem depth is being built with these rounds and I will attack position-by-position as they rounds move on.
Chicago traded the first pick in the fourth round to New Orleans. They will kick off today.
We saw seven selections made in the fourth round:
- Roschon Johnson, RB CHI (115)
- Johnson joins a crowded backfield. This pick makes sense for Chicago to get a running back on a rookie contract. There is an opportunity for Johnson to be given a meaningful role. D’Onta Foreman is a depth insurance piece.
- Derius Davis, WR LAC (125)
- The Chargers get a small wide receiver to offer 4.36 speed in the offense. He was also first round selection Quentin Johnston’s teammate. Davis can offer returner benefits to the team, too.
- Jake Haener, QB NO (127)
- Davis Mills and Brock Purdy are recent examples of why teams should take chances on quarterbacks in the draft. He completed 68.2% passes in college and will now be in a position to learn the system behind Derek Carr.
- Stetson Bennett, QB LAR (128)
- Similar to Haener, we have another quarterback to learn the Rams system behind Matthew Stafford. The main difference is the lingering health issues of the team’s starting quarterback. He completed 65% passes in college and won two national championships.
- Charlie Jones, WR CIN (131)
- Cincinnati gets a wide receiver on a rookie contract. Tyler Boyd’s contract is up at the end of the year and Tee Higgins is working on an extension. He may or not get it, so the team adds depth with Jones. He has 4.43 speed and can operate out of the slot.
- Tyler Scott, WR CHI (133)
- Chicago is doing the same here. Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney will be free agents after the season. They may attempt to extend at least one. Scott will offer depth and speed to help Justin Fields in 2023.
- Aidan O’Connell, QB LV (135)
- Las Vegas follows the, “we have aging quarterbacks and will need to have someone developing and learning the system” just in case ideology. He completed 66.7% passes in college and Las Vegas traded up to select him. They got their guy to be the back up quarterback and will have a mentor in Brian Hoyer.
- Roschon Johnson, RB CHI (115)
There are multiple reasons to like these players. However, the reality of their situations may be different. We can be optimistic in regards to their situations, like it would be awesome if Charlie Jones develops to replace Tyler Boyd in 2023. It would be awesome if Roschon Johnson carves out a meaningful role and becomes the best running back in Chicago. It may not work out for all we know. Those are reasons to invest in players, so long as they offer upside and untapped potential to explore.
We had 15 selections in round five:
- Clayton Thune, QB ARI (139)
- Kyler Murray’s Arizona career may be in question. There are no reports to this, I just have seen speculation.
- Clayton Thune, QB ARI (139)
- Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB CLE (140)
- Israel Abanikanda, RB NYJ (143)
- He will be playing behind Breece Hall. Many will question if this fifth round selection means Hall may not be ready for the season. This is depth at an important position on a rookie contract.
- Josh Whyle, TE TEN (147)
- Sean Clifford, QB GB (149)
- Justin Shorter, WR BUF (150)
- The overall first ranked wide receiver in the 2018 class, ahead of Ja’Marr Chase even. Shorter never lived up to potential but lands in an intriguing spot. You never know if an NFL team can untap potential.
- Dontavyion Wicks, WR GB (159)
- Another investment in the offense for Jordan Love. However, Hicks will be buried on the depth chart unless he claims a role.
- Will Mallory, TE IND (162)
- Chase Brown, RB CIN (163)
- Joe Mixon future is in question. He may play the 2023 season for Cincinnati, but he will be a cap causality in 2024.
- Jarren Hall, QB MIN (164)
- Payne Durham, TE TB (171)
- Eric Gray, RB NYG (172)
- Davis Allen, TE LAR (175)
- Unlike the previous tight end selections, Allen may have a faster path to playing time. Tyler Higbee is in a contract year while Whyle (Chigoziem Okonkwo), Durham (Cade Otton), and Mallory (Jelani Woods) will be competing with second-year tight ends.
- Evan Hull, RB IND (176)
- This may be compared to having a Nyheim Hines for Jonathan Taylor. Hull had 88 receptions over his final two seasons at Northwestern.
- Puka Nacua, WR LAR (177)
- The Rams may have competition at the WR2 position. Van Jefferson is in a contract year. 4
I am not sure if this is the Brock Purdy effect, but teams are selecting quarterbacks to add depth and a young piece to the team. The quarterbacks are being invested in to have a young potential backup quarterback, an important position for the NFL. We are seeing running backs come off the board, they are able to provide depth for their respective teams. The wide receivers going off could be important. However, they may be battling for a potential WR3 role. The tight ends are looking to be depth pieces or rotational pieces if teams are moving to 12-personnel.
We had 12 selections in round six:
- Parker Washington, WR JAX (185)
- Calvin Ridley is currently a free agent following the 2023 season.
- Kayshon Boutte, WR NE (187)
- This feels like a New England pick. He flashed his talent his freshman year in college but questions and concerns have followed over his last two years. If anyone can get Boutte on track it is Bill Belichick.
- Tanner McKee, QB PHI (188)
- Trey Palmer, WR TB (191)
- Mike Evans is in a contract year. Palmer is small but offers 4.33 speed.
- Chris Rodriguez, RB WAS (193)
- An interesting pick given Washington has Brian Robinson. Rodriguez had 20 receptions over his collegiate career. Eric Bieniemy may be getting his late round running back as the new offensive coordinator. He comes over from Kansas City who drafted Isaih Pachecho in the seventh round last year.
- A.T. Perry, WR NO (195)
- Elijah Higgins, TE MIA (197)
- Higgins noted he will be transitioning to tight end. Miami is an interesting landing spot here with a wide open depth chart, if true.
- Xavier Hutchinson, WR HOU (205)
- Andrei Iosivas, WR CIN (206)
- Intriguing selection as Iosivas posted a 9.96 RAS and is 6’3″.
- Demario Douglas, WR NE (210)
- Deuce Vaughn, RB DAL (212)
- Zach Evans, RB LAR (215)
- Parker Washington, WR JAX (185)
I am thinking these rounds are similar to dynasty startup late round selections. If you need a position take the best young player available you believe in. Make sure to take the metrics, film, and any other information needed to make an educated guess. The NFL also needs special teams players. Many players are able to make a career at an important aspect of the NFL game.
The final round.
- Antoine Greene, WR DET
- Despite Jameson Williams’ six game suspension, Detroit waited till their last pick to add depth to the position group
- Zack Kuntz, TE NYJ (220)
- Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah have zero guaranteed money in 2024.
- Antoine Greene, WR DET
- DeWayne McBride, RB MIN
- This is an interesting selection. Dalvin Cook’s future has been in question. Alexander Mattison is signed through 2024.
- Colton Dowell, WR TEN (229)
- Lew Nicholls III, RB GB (235)
- Kenny McIntosh, RB SEA (237)
- Another running back for Seattle.
- Max Duggan, QB LAC (239)
- Insert Brock Purdy line here.
- Jalen Brooks, WR DAL (244)
- Brayden Willis, TE SF (247)
- A second tight end for San Francisco in the 2023 draft.
- Ronnie Bell, WR SF (253)
- Grant DuBose, WR GB (256)
- DeWayne McBride, RB MIN
Similar to the sixth round sentiment, teams are looking for players to compete in training camp and battle for a roster spot. Every year we will have the late-ground gem rising to relevance. Drafting these players in your fourth (or fifth round) in your rookie draft may behoove you. Slot players into your taxi squad and pick a few off waivers if you can.
The NFL Draft is over and many rookie drafts will be starting. It will be important to note the changes to rookie rankings as they roll out. It will be most important to make sure to be taking players who are talented. Often we see NFL teams make selections in rounds in which leave the masses wondering why they did that. Draft capital is not the final piece of a puzzle on a prospect.
Thank you for all who have tuned in to this article for instant dynasty reactions. I know the first few rounds are most important but we have seen many players rise from the late rounds to be dynasty relevant.
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Tight Ends - May 31, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Wide Receivers - May 30, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Running Backs - May 29, 2023