April Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Tight End
Do not fade the tight end position. If you do, there are always options to exploit in startup ADP. This article will look at one-year ADP changes for the tight end position. I will note risers, fallers, and notable tight end selections from our April ADP. Let’s jump right into it.
TIGHT ENDS
Below is a visual representation of where the quarterbacks are currently being drafted:
Notable Selections
Cole Kmet, CHI – TE14 (+15.5)
Despite Chicago addressing the wide receiver position, Kmet is being selected earlier than last year. I am not necessarily excited regarding a player who may be the fourth option on his run-first team. Chicago may take a wide receiver and tight end in the draft, too.
I am feeling a sunk cost fallacy going on here. I am not banking on a touchdown-dependent tight end.
Jelani Woods, IND – TE25 (+42.3)
A potential starting tight end is being drafted at pick 193.8. I only say potential because the real depth charts are not set for the 2023 season. Woods flashed his potential in 2022 and was playing alongside Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson, both combined for 68 targets. Woods began seeing more playing time beginning week 12 to end the season. He managed 58% of his targets in those six games.
Woods is a tight end I would rather draft than the above Kmet, especially 50+ picks later.
Tight End Risers
First or second year tight ends will naturally rise in ADP. The tight end position is often viewed as unnecessary to invest in when you miss out on the top-tier talents (e.g., Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, etc.). An additional reason for a tight end to rise in ADP results is when a tight end rises to the top of the receiving chart.
David Njoku, CLE – TE10 (+34.8)
Cleveland looks to have a bounce back year in 2023. Deshaun Watson simply did not look good. The offense has been said to be passing more this upcoming season. Watson will need to return to his old form to be excited about this passing offense. Elijah Moore joins Njoku and Amari Cooper as the top pass-catchers on the team.
Evan Engram, JAX – TE11 (+67.2)
Jacksonville’s offense took a major leap forward with first year head coach Doug Pederson. The offense will look to continue its success in 2023, notably by adding Calvin Ridley to the offense. This may not bode well for Engram as Christian Kirk and Ridley will be commanding targets. Engram still figures to play a role and Pederson likely continues to scheme plays for his tight end.
Additional Risers
Juwan Johnson, NO – TE21
Previously undrafted in 2022, Johnson finds himself as the starting tight end for New Orleans heading into 2023. He managed 65 targets and found himself with seven touchdowns.
Isaiah Likely, BAL – TE28 (+13.5)
Likely managed 60 targets despite Mark Andrews missing only two games. The questions surrounding Lamar Jackson and how the offense will look in 2023 linger. There could be a potential for Baltimore to run a two tight end offense.
Tight End Fallers
Once hyped up tight ends who disappoint will naturally fall. These could be tight ends who find themselves on a less favorable team or a tight end who may have lost their role.
Darren Waller, NYG – TE8 (-31.0)
Despite being traded to a team where he may be the leading target, Waller has fallen 31 selections. This is likely due to his age and injury history, playing only 59% of games in the last two seasons. Regardless, the talent is there. Brian Daboll is turning the Giants around and the team is looking to continue their success in 2023.
Dalton Schultz, HOU – TE16 (-51.8)
One year ago drafters were investing in a tight end in a high-powered offense. The team let him walk and Schultz signed a one-year contract with Houston. The dynasty outlook is in question, however, he may have a favorable role in 2023.
Mike Gesicki, NE – TE26 (-87.3)
Similar to Schultz, drafters may have thought Gesicki would play a role during the 2022 season. Miami simply just did not utilize him and let him hit the market. New England signed him to a one-year deal. Hopefully, he can be utilized in the big slot role for Mac Jones.
Irv Smith, CIN – TE31 (-83.3)
There could be untapped potential left in Smith. Cincinnati will be the opportunity to find out, if they do not invest in the position during the draft. Hayden Hurst had an intriguing season but also stepped up during Ja’Marr Chase’s four game absence. If he is the starter, being the fourth option (at best) is not something we want from our tight ends.
Additional Fallers
Dawson Knox, BUF – TE19 (-40.3)
A respectable tight end who has managed 136 targets and 15 touchdowns over the last two seasons. Variable production and not a weekly bet to help you win.
Discussion
There are limited tight end options warranting a confident weekly start. Often you may find yourself bouncing back and forth on a start decision. This defense is good against tight ends but this wide receiver is banged up. This tight end I have a good gut feeling for. Whatever your reasoning is for the start, you are likely hoping for a touchdown.
Tight ends are often viewed to need time to develop. I wrote about this notion, and it seems people want instant gratification on rookie tight ends. Tight ends are able to produce immediately, unfortunately, they are often in situations where they are not asked to.
This creates an edge to exploit, especially when a tight end like the aforementioned Woods is being selected in rounds 15+. I am not saying he will be a weekly starter, but the potential is there given his athleticism and potential role in the offense. This notion helps find value with second-year tight ends in startup drafts.
Dynasty Implications
Finding the value within a startup at the tight end position is crucial. Betting on upside (Woods) rather than hope (Kmet) is the optimal move. There are instances where a tight end will change teams and resurrect their value. I was not excited about TJ Hockenson with his role in Detroit. He was then traded and found himself in a new role with a team willing to utilize his skill set properly. The main takeaway is, we should always bet on talent. Lesson learned for me.
As we all know, it is relatively easy for a tight end to finish as a TE1. Kmet finished as TE7 in PPR scoring, yet only had 47% of games over 10 points with TEP scoring, too. This is why it is important to solidify the position with a top-tier tight end. This may not be plausible given there is only a handful amount to select.
Understanding important variables to covet from your tight ends will help find the value to be exploited in the drafts. It is equally important to never reach at the position to fill a starting position. When doing startups there will be months to fill your starting roster.
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Tight Ends - May 31, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Wide Receivers - May 30, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Running Backs - May 29, 2023
