Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.04

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft, and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class, and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, we will use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent Superflex ADP data, we will suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, we will also include a potential pivot option. In addition, we will include options based on the updated 1QB ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, we will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months if not years, but difference-makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, we will also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

ROOKIE SELECTION 1.04

THE PICK: Anthony Richardson, QB, University of Florida

The alpha specimen of the QB position. They don’t make humans like Anthony Richardson often. Measuring in at 6’4” and 244 pounds at the combine, he melted the collective faces of the fantasy community when he blazed a 4.43-second 40 Yard Dash. Then he jumped out of Lucas Oil Stadium with a 10’9” Broad Jump, and then the hype truly took flight with a 40.5” Vertical Jump.

Richardson is a very polarizing player in the fantasy community. When you look at the spider graph from Mockdraftable, his numbers are in the “Create a Player” region of physical gifts. Those are just numbers we don’t see often at the position. Anthony Richardson is the best size/speed athlete we have ever seen at the position.

So what is the knock? To call Richardson “raw,” insert Dr. Evil air quotes, is being kind. His only full season of game activity was in 2022 as a Junior.

Stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com

With a completion percentage of 54.7% in his collegiate career, he is sitting in the realm of bust-QB players. It is the same thing that was said about Josh Allen coming out of Wyoming. When you watch Richardson play at Florida, you’ll see arm strength, touch, and placement on some throws. Then the next play, he leaves you wondering with bad mechanics and misfiring into the secondary.

some perspective here…

Early Down Completion %

Josh Allen:

2016 WYO: 57%
2017 WYO: 57%
2018 BUF: 56% (patience)
2019 BUF: 61% (patience)
2020 BUF: 70% 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
2021 BUF: 66%
2022 BUF: 66%

Anthony Richardson:

2021 FLA: 59%
2022 FLA: 56%
2023 ???: ??? (patience)

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 4, 2023

Teams will need patience with Richardson. Letting him sit for a year would be optimal. Learn the game and take your time. Allow a team drafting at the top of the draft to surround him with talent while another QB starts.

Richardson is a home run swing at the position. You might be locking up a generational Konami Code at the position, or you are swinging out of the box and end up athletic Zach Wilson. Imagine having the rushing floor of Allen or Jalen Hurts as his passing game comes into play.

Trade Value

If you are swinging for the fences with Richardson, how about you go for it and land Bijan? Jump on to the Dynasty League Football Trade Finder, and you can use that to get an idea of what to offer. Or go use the DLF Trade Analyzer.

• 1.04 + 1.07 + 2.04 for 1.01
• 1.04 + 2.04 for 1.01
• 1.04 + George Pickens for 1.01
• 1.04 for Amon-Ra St. Brown
• 1.04 for Christian McCaffrey and the 2.01

Possible Pivots

April 2023 SuperFlex Rookie Dynasty ADP from Dynasty League Football

Pick 1.04 in SuperFlex is going to have a shot at CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, Richardson, or Will Levis. Bijan Robinson has likely locked himself in as the 1.01 unless an injury or something else happens. If swinging for the fences with Richardson doesn’t go for you, a pick of Jahmyr Gibbs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or Jordan Addison will be there to bolster your team.

1QB Options

April 2023 Rookie Dynasty ADP from Dynasty League Football

So we know Bijan is likely to be the 1.01 no matter the format. In your 1QB leagues, you will have a nice selection of top three WRs or possibly one of the next level of RBs. All those players will be solid additions to your fantasy squads.

ROOKIE SELECTION 2.04

THE PICK: Michael Mayer, TE ND

He might not have the uber physical skills of Kyle Pitts. Or come from TEU Iowa like Sam LaPorta. He is a classic inline TE built in the mold of Jason Witten that can maul in the run game or flex out to create a mismatch in the passing game. He’s not sexy, and like most TEs, it will likely be year two or three before you plug him in weekly with confidence. But there is nothing wrong with that.

Looking at his spider graph, he is not going to wow anyone. Mayer is the Peanut Butter and Jelly of tight ends. He will likely never lead the league at the TE position. He isn’t the fancy splashy order of a Ham and Swiss slider, but there is nothing wrong with PB&J, you probably have never been upset with eating that, while how many overhyped TEs have left us hitting up the position year after year?

Stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com

Looking at his spider graph, he is not going to wow anyone. Mayer is the Peanut Butter and Jelly of tight ends. He will likely never lead the league at the TE position. He isn’t the fancy splashy order of a Ham and Swiss slider, but there is nothing wrong with PB&J, you probably have never been upset with eating that, while how many overhyped TEs have left us hitting up the position year after year?

Trade Value

• 2.04 + 1.08 for DeVonta Smith (See if you can get someone to part with Smith + for the 1.04 and 2.04)
• 2.04 + 2024 2^ND for Mac Jones
• 2.04 + 3.02 for Allen Robinson + 2.10
• 2.04 + 3.09 + 2024 2^ND for 1.12

Possible Pivots

April 2023 SuperFlex Rookie Dynasty ADP from Dynasty League Football

In this range, I am a fan of looking RB, and you have some interesting choices with Tank Bigsby, Tyjae Spears, and Zach Evans.

1QB Options

April 2023 Rookie Dynasty ADP from Dynasty League Football

In 1QB leagues, look at the RB group of Spears, Bigsby, and Evans. Depending on your build, take the layup with the available QB group of Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and, as mentioned earlier, Anthony Richardson.

ROOKIE SELECTION 3.04

THE PICK: Darnell Washington, TE Georgia

Keeping in line with the athletic unicorn of our first pick, we follow up with Darnell Washington. Like Richardson, they don’t make many humans like Washington. Measuring in at 6’7” and 264 pounds, he ran a 4.64 second 40 Yard Dash he is the size/speed prospect at the TE position. For the Kenny Pickett hand-size Twitter fans, Washington has 11-inch mitts as a pass-catcher.

There is a lot to be interested in when you look at the physical prospect of Washington. The reason he is sitting around in the third round of your fantasy rookie draft, though, is the complete lack of production during his time at Georgia. Washington was in the same recruiting class as Mayer. Both would be behind Arik Gilbert, who has struggled to get on the field since committing to LSU out of High School. All three were five-star TE recruits.

Stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com

Like Richardson, it is a swing for the fences. If you decide to skip on Mayer in round two, you can land an intriguing upside prospect in the next round. I would not be surprised if we see his draft stock jump in the fantasy realm after the NFL draft depending on draft capital.

Trade Value

• 3.04 + George Pickens + Sam Howell for Kyle Pitts (go make this trade if you can get the Pitts owner to move)
• 2.04 + 3.04 + 2024 1^ST for 1.03 + 4.02
• 3.04 + 2.06 + Rashaad Penny for Derrick Henry (go make this trade today if you can get Henry at this cost)

Possible Pivots

April 2023 SuperFlex Rookie Dynasty ADP from Dynasty League Football

Both Israel Abanikanda and Kayshon Boutte are intriguing picks in this range. Chase Brown, Rashee Rice, and Jayden Reed could be worthwhile stashes.

1QB Options

April 2023 Rookie Dynasty ADP from Dynasty League Football

In a 1QB league, it is a worthwhile pick to grab Will Levis if you still need a QB. Pass on Deuce Vaughn with his size limitations. Washington’s name shows up again in 1QB and is a great lottery ticket.