Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues
As free agency brought many pieces of news, everything we knew is slowly changing. Mock draft season is coming to an end and we are close to getting the final piece to the player puzzle once the NFL Draft happens. This series will focus on that market pulse by highlighting players at each spot.
Here are running backs to watch before the NFL Draft:
Brian Robinson, WAS – Sell
This one seems obvious, but the reasoning may not be as clear. Ultimately, the dynasty community already acknowledges Robinson is likely exactly what he presents to be: an early-down grinder with limited pass-catching upside and largely dependent on his touchdowns and offensive efficiency to produce. His RB33 price tag reflects this.
However, the data suggests he is quite bad and in-time, should slowly lose work due to the team being unable to justify hammering him with as many touches as they did in 2022. His .0519 points per opportunity (targets plus rush attempts) ranks fourth worst over the past five years and despite these numbers, Washington still gave him more than 18 opportunities per game. Bet against this continuing.
The Move – The trick with Robinson is understanding what he is and resisting the urge to not “value the volume.” Volume without efficiency is replaceable and that is exactly how he should be treated. A trade away of Robinson must include leverage, which means moving him for a second-round pick plus another running back. I like Hassan Haskins, Jaylen Warren, or Zonovan Knight as an added piece to get the deal done.
D’Andre Swift, DET – Buy
You might be wondering how Swift can go from a sell three months ago to a buy now. The logic is simple. Sometimes, perception and price dictate action. In this case, Swift has settled at RB14 and with the rookie draft upcoming, the clarity on what to expect with those picks is starting to emerge.
Despite the signing of David Montgomery, the market has now soured on Swift enough because it is clear he will never “garner a full workload.” The reality? This was never the expectation and digging deeper into his efficiency numbers, you probably do not want it to be. He is one of seven active players with a career mark of over 1.0 PPR points per opportunity and profiles extremely favorably to Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara. His elite ceiling may be limited if he remains at this opportunity level (13 per game) but there is no reason he should be valued behind the likes of Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, or Nick Chubb.
The Move – Any draft pick you plan to use on a running back not named Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs should be in play. The good news? You may not have to pay that price. In points per reception (not points per carry) leagues, consider a late first-round pick to acquire Swift, or consider any pivot-down deals involving the running backs immediately above him in ADP.
Latavius Murray, FA – Add
Like renditions previous, recommending adding the likes of Melvin Gordon, Damien Williams, and Ronald Jones (pre-Dallas signing), Murray is another player you will see floating out on many waiver wires when managers make roster cuts before the rookie draft. At age 33, he is nothing special, but we have seen him lock into a depth chart and immediately get on the field in the past. If you are subscribing to an ‘any RB on a 53’ construction, this is a free square.
The Move – Add him in any league with 30 or more roster spots. Any wide receiver below the WR90 mark in the current ADP is purely a roster-clogger and is likely a poor use of a roster spot relative to Murray.
Ty Johnson, NYJ – Drop
Normally the news of signing a new contract with your team would be a good thing as Johnson re-upped with the Jets at the end of March. Despite being a player worth holding prior, the depth chart of Breece Hall, Michael Carter, Zonovan Knight and the upcoming draft makes the path extremely unlikely for the former Maryland Terrapin. The best bet was going elsewhere and that is unlikely to happen.
The Move – I have cut Johnson in leagues with less than 32 roster spots and he goes to the very bottom of the list of ‘any RB on a 53’ I am still considering. We can circle back after the draft and he may pop up as a camp cut that becomes intriguing elsewhere.
Conclusion – The RB market is still wide open with many proven players on free agency and a fantastic rookie class yet to find their home. Expect many changes to take place before the next version of this series.
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
