Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.08

John Arrington

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft, and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class, and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, our team will use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Superflex Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, we’ll suggest the player you could soon be adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, we’ll also include a potential pivot option. In addition, we’ll include options based on the updated 1QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, we’ll examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months if not years, but difference-makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, we’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

Rookie Selection 1.08

The Pick: Will Levis, QB

A fifth-year player and three-star recruit out of high school, Levis had a slow start to his career thanks to being stuck behind another quarterback in this draft class, Sean Clifford. After redshirting his true freshman season, Levis barely got on the field for his second and third seasons. After attempting only a combined 102 passes his first three seasons, Levis transferred to Kentucky and immediately became the starter. His fourth season started off with a bang, throwing for 367 yards and four touchdowns in his first game with the Wildcats. Unfortunately, things cooled from there. Levis finished year four with a 66% completion rate and threw for 2,826 yards, with 24 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. Year five saw very similar numbers for Levis, with 2,406 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.

Despite not being overly productive in college, Levis is still considered one of the top quarterbacks in the class, mostly due to his size and athleticism. Measuring in at almost 6’4” and 229 lbs with a strong arm, Levis gets comped to Josh Allen quite often. That size and strength combo currently has him projected to be taken in the early first round of the NFL Draft, which is the main reason he is sitting here at eight overall in DLF’s rookie ADP. With Levis’ gunslinger tendencies and his propensity to turn the ball over, he does have the possible upside of Jameis Winston’s 2019 season, but I don’t really see long-term upside in this pick.

Levis’ rookie ADP has been pretty consistent since DLF started keeping track in February, fluctuating between pick seven and eight. With superflex managers starving for QB help, he will always likely be picked around this spot in rookie drafts. I don’t see too many scenarios where he falls out of his current spot of QB4 in the class.

Trade Value

Possible Pivots

Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, Zach Charbonnet

1QB League Options

Josh Downs, WR

dlf dynasty draft coverage

Rookie Selection 2.08

The Pick: Dalton Kincaid, TE

Another fifth-year player, Dalton Kincaid, hasn’t exactly had the most normal path to the NFL. Mostly focusing on basketball, Kincaid only played one year of high school football before walking on at the University of San Diego. In his sophomore season at San Diego, Kincaid broke out with 835 yards and eight touchdowns. He parlayed that success into a transfer to the University of Utah. Things didn’t continue at the same pace once in the FBS, mostly due to the covid pandemic cutting the 2020 season short. In Kincaid’s fourth season, he was second in receiving yards and first in touchdowns, with 510 and eight, respectively. In his fifth and final season, Kincaid led all Utah receivers with 890 yards and eight touchdowns.

Compared to a lot of other tight ends in what is being perceived as a high-end class, Kincaid comes in slightly undersized at almost 6’4” and 246 lbs. The hope would be that Kincaid will be used more as a move tight end or “big slot,” more than an inline tight end.

Dynasty managers have been pretty confident in their conviction on where to draft Kincaid, with his ADP only fluctuating between picks 20-25 over the past three months. I think you can ultimately be confident that he will be available around the end of the second round of rookie drafts, although there are some players currently being drafted after him that I would take first.

Trade Value

Possible Pivots

Kendre Miller, Sean Tucker, Marvin Mims

1QB League Options

Kendre Miller

Rookie Selection 3.08

The Pick: Jayden Reed, WR

Completing the trifecta on fifth-year players, Jayden Reed started his college career at Western Michigan in 2018. In that year, he was named a Freshman All-American after totaling 56 receptions for 797 yards and eight touchdowns. After that great start, Reed decided to transfer to Michigan State. After being forced to sit the 2019 season out because of NCAA transfer rules at the time, Reed only played in 7 games in 2020 because of the covid shortened season. In that season, he led all receivers with 33 receptions, 407 yards, and three touchdowns. Reed finally had a full season and broke out in a big way in 2021. In that fourth season, he had 59 receptions for 1,026 yards and 10 touchdowns while also adding a rushing touchdown. Unfortunately, that success didn’t really continue in the 2022 season, with Reed’s numbers crashing back down to earth. In that season, Reed had 55 receptions for 636 yards and five touchdowns while being surpassed as the leading receiver by Keon Coleman.

Reed has decent NFL size, coming in at 5’11” and 187 lbs, and showed quality athleticism with his 4.45 40-yard dash time. That athleticism and his college special teams experience could help him get on the field sooner rather than later.

Reed’s combine clearly helped put him on the radar, as his ADP has progressed from 42nd overall in February all the way to 31 overall in April. I could see him rising a little more even, assuming a quality NFL landing spot.

Trade Value

Possible Pivots

DeWayne McBride, Deuce Vaughn, and Jonathan Mingo

1QB League Options

Chase Brown

john arrington
Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.08