Dynasty Fantasy Football ADP vs Redraft ADP
In this series, we explore the difference between DLF rankings and ADP in superflex leagues, but we are shaking it up this week.
Since we’ve already gone through the positions in current DLF rankings, and the most recent ADP, I thought we’d take this opportunity to consider the difference between redraft and dynasty ADP, at least before the NFL Draft changes everything.
I took FantasyPros superflex consensus and compared it to DLF’s ADP. This is a tried-and-true method of looking for players who might help provide an edge the following year in both value and points.
So, let’s dig in and look.
Method
A few years ago, I wrote up a series about creating an expected points projection based on DLF ADP. I’ve been keeping track of the formula in my database since then and found it relatively useful. The logic is simple. ADP produces a relatively solid RSQ to points the following year. Since ADP brings with it a logarithmic expectation of points (i.e player drafted high can be expected to produce more) by calculating the trend line of ADP to points we can create an expectation, relative to the position, of their points the following year.
Previously we have used this to see who over and underproduced relative to ADP to directly compare expectations between 2023 rankings and dynasty rankings, on a scale of points per game (PPG). But we can do more with it as well.
Redraft VS Dynasty
Another way of saying this is: we are interested in the orange dots that are higher than the blue dot, and the blue dots that are higher than the orange dots.
A lot of people may prefer graphs, I’ve always been fond of tables, but I thought you might enjoy this overview as well.
Players projected for more points in redraft than dynasty may be strong bets for teams looking to contend in 2023. Whereas players ranked higher in dynasty, by and large, might be better betting for value increases.
This is backed up by the fact that almost every rookie ranked higher in blue than orange. It’s also evident in the fact that quarterbacks are almost entirely ranked higher in dynasty. Without the replicability of that position in redraft, superflex ranks slant heavily towards the position in dynasty.
Redraft Targets in Dynasty
Below is a list of players redraft is expecting to score more fantasy points than dynasty in 2023. These players should be expected to lose value by the end of the season. But should conversely expect to be values in trades for teams looking to contend next year.
I encourage you to check out the DLF trade calculator and Trade Finder for ideas, but I think a decent starting point is combing a mid to late first-round pick with a younger player to try and add this production to rosters.
Running Backs
Redraft ADP consistently fades the longer-term value certainty of quarterbacks in favor of the positional advantage of running backs in the early part of drafts. The most obvious example of this is Christian McCaffrey, who is by far the most valued player, according to redraft, relative to Dynasty ADP. Redraft values him over every other player in superflex, whereas dynasty has him ranked below 22 others.
Derrick Henry, RB TEN
Of particular interest in dynasty is Tony Pollard, but it’s worth still considering Henry. Pollard is three years younger and yet has similar expectations in 2023 to Henry and Nick Chubb. The added risk in dynasty, of course, is that if he fails to live up to these higher expectations there is an immediate loss in value, and he is also being drafted above both. This makes Derrick Henry, the lowest drafted in dynasty of the three, perhaps the more secure target.
Travis Kelce, TE KC
When you don’t fear the idea that he may not play for more than a year, it seems there are relatively few players more valuable in fantasy football than Kelce. Any team looking to compete should already have sent trade offers on the 33-year-old superstar. A tight end that performs like him provides an advantage even in superflex.
Most of the recent trades involving Kelce have involved a younger tight end like Dallas Goedert or wide receivers like Michael Pittman or Deebo Samuel.
Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
While he didn’t turn up in our DLF vs rankings analysis, it’s clear the first player at the wide receiver position any competitive team should be interested in is Kupp. Expected to return to his top 12 production next year by redraft, there is no wide receiver who offers as much production upside relative to his ADP in dynasty. He is the third-highest drafted wide receiver when 2023 points are the only thing that matter.
Most trades involving Kupp recently have involved multiple second-round picks or 2024 first.
Dynasty Targets in 2023
Below is a list of players dynasty is expecting to have more value. These players should be expected to hold or maintain ADP by the end of the season.
There is little if any better advice than constantly trying to add value. While there are no easy-to-trade-for players on this list, it’s as close as we can come to foolproof as a list of targets for any dynasty team.
Quarterbacks
Over recent years, ADP of the quarterback position has increased dramatically. This is partly because of the influx of high-upside young players, but also because of a market adjustment to the relative value of the position. This shows up rather starkly when comparing DLF ADP to redraft as eight of the most highly drafted players are all quarterbacks. This suggests several things, but they all revolve around the same theme, there is still more value left at the position.
Only two of the players listed here are currently drafted outside the top 12 in dynasty: Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott.
Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
There is no player, outside of the quarterback position, that DLF ADP suggests has more value than Kyle Pitts. While I too am haunted by the history of Evan Engram, and the uncertainty of the Atlanta offense, if you were ever going to get on the train, now is the time he may well be a decent dynasty target relative to his ADP.
Only 33 players in dynasty are drafted higher than Pitts. Having said that, most of the recent trades have involved multiple first-round picks, and often a top-five pick in 2023… or a quarterback.
Drake London, WR ATL
Is London the Cooper Kupp of dynasty value? If you are interested in a trade for a 2022-drafted wide receiver, ADP suggests you start sending offers on London first.
Most of the recent trades have involved a later first-round pick in 2023, according to the trade finder.
Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA
I’m a fan of sending any 2022 rookie wide receiver for Waddle in dynasty, and – also, as we saw a few weeks ago, AJ Brown. Not only should both have similar or higher expectations – both having done more at this point – but are also more valued in dynasty.
The most recent trades for Waddle have not been simple, but he has been traded to teams most often for the central prize of the 1.06 and 1.07 picks in the 2023 class.
An update on the moves I’ve made based on this series so far now includes having traded for George Kittle using Dallas Goedert and a second-round rookie pick. I feel good about it. Let me know if anything in this series has encouraged you to send trade offers, and if anything got done about it if you like in the comments below.
Other than that, thanks again for checking out this series and I’ll see you again next week.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
- Peter Howard: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained - March 6, 2024
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 15 - December 23, 2023
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 14 - December 16, 2023
