Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.09
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft, and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class, and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April superflex Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option. In addition, I’ll include options based on the updated 1QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months if not years, but difference-makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
ROOKIE SELECTION 1.09
THE PICK: QUENTIN JOHNSTON, WR TCU
I actually think Johnston is a slight value at the 1.09 spot, even in a superflex format. He had a strong college career at TCU, starting during the 2020 COVID-shortened season.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB
He instantly became a starting wide receiver as a true freshman in 2020, leading the team in receiving yards. Then in 2021, he repeated the same feat, scoring six touchdowns in eight games. Even more impressive, he still had the most receiving yards on TCU’s roster, even though he missed four games.
Despite solid play in his first two seasons, Johnston didn’t become a consistent alpha receiver until 2022. He finally played more than eight games, putting up 60 receptions, 1,069 yards, and six touchdowns. After that strong performance, he declared for the 2023 NFL Draft, where most draft analysts expected him to battle for the WR1 spot for NFL teams.
Unfortunately, Johnston’s stock has fallen a bit since the end of the college season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba solidified his spot at the top of the wide receiver rankings with a strong performance at the NFL Combine, while Johnston skipped most of the drills. Luckily, he did run a 4.52 40-yard dash at TCU’s pro day, which is quite fast for his size. I still expect Johnston to be a first-round pick, although he may fall between 20-25 overall rather than the top-15 pick he seemed at the start of the process.
Trade Value
- 1.09 for Jahan Dotson
- 1.09/1.12 for 1.04/4.04
- 1.09/2.07 for 1.07
Possible Pivots: Jordan Addison, Will Levis
At the 1.09 in superflex, I will almost certainly select whoever of Johnston, Addison, or Levis remains after the top six players come off the board. Those two are the only relevant pivot options.
1QB Options: Devon Achane, Josh Downs
In 1 QB leagues, Achane is my 1.08, and Downs comes in at 1.09. Considering that the top-7 players seem relatively set, those are my two most likely selections in 1 QB leagues.
ROOKIE SELECTION 2.09
THE PICK: KENDRE MILLER, RB TCU
Interestingly, the 2.09 pick comes from the same college as the 1.09. Like Johnston, Miller entered TCU as a true freshman in 2020, and he immediately made an impact on their offense.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB
He played behind Zach Evans in 2020 and 2021, although he almost forced a 50-50 split in 2021. However, he impressively averaged over 7 YPC in both years, standing out for his efficiency.
Then, in 2022, Evans transferred to Ole Miss, allowing Miller to become a workhorse back. He averaged 16 carries per game while maintaining a high 6.2 YPC. Because of his excellent junior year, he declared for the NFL Draft. I’m not exactly sure how NFL teams will value Miller, but many teams have recently brought him in for pre-draft visits. If he slides into the back of round three, I won’t mind this cost in superflex leagues. However, if he falls to round four or later, I likely won’t draft any shares of him at this price.
Trade Value
- 2.09 for 3.07, 3.08, 3.10
- 2.09 for 2024 2nd/2025 3rd
- 2.09 for Daniel Jones (1 QB)
Possible Pivots: Marvin Mims, Cedric Tillman, Sean Tucker
All of those players fall behind Miller in the current superflex rookie ADP, but I would prefer each of them to him right now. I have Mims as my WR6 in this class and Tillman at WR7, a few spots ahead of Miller in my overall rookie rankings. As for Tucker, I simply slightly prefer his profile to Miller’s, and the two running backs have similar projected draft capital.
1QB Options: Mims, Tillman
Similarly, Mims and Tillman are my two top choices at this selection in 1QB leagues. In that format, I have them ranked 16th and 17th overall, respectively, clear values at 2.09. They fall at 2.09 and 2.12 in 1 QB ADP.
ROOKIE SELECTION 3.09
THE PICK: DeWAYNE McBRIDE, RB UAB
Like the other two players in this article, McBride entered college in 2020 as a true freshman. Unfortunately, UAB only played nine games that year due to COVID-19, where Spencer Brown served as their workhorse back. Luckily, McBride still saw some involvement.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB
He accumulated 47 carries for 439 yards and four touchdowns, although he saw no involvement in the passing game.
After 2020, McBride became the workhorse back for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He had 204 carries for 1,371 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2021, and he improved to 233 carries, 1,713 yards, and 19 touchdowns in 2022. However, he still failed to see any receiving work those two years, as he totaled only five receptions for 29 yards across both seasons.
Despite his lack of passing-game work, McBride declared for the NFL Draft after 2022. I agree with his decision, as he had nothing to prove in college. He was the Conference USA offensive player of the year in 2022 and had no room to grow his draft stock. However, he’s definitely the type of player where his NFL Draft capital and landing spot will be the main factor in his dynasty value.
Trade Value
- 3.09 for Isaiah Hodgins/4.05
- 3.09 for Hayden Hurst
- 3.09/Darren Waller for 2024 1st
Possible Pivots: Luke Musgrave (TE premium), Rashee Rice
There are no players available at McBride’s ADP that I prefer over him. However, I would select Musgrave in a tight end premium league or Rice in any format over him if they slide to this value.
1QB Options: Chase Brown, Tyler Scott, Sam LaPorta
I have McBride rated slightly above Brown in my rookie values, but I wouldn’t mind picking Brown at 3.09 in a 1 QB league if he falls there. As for Scott, I don’t love his prospect profile whatsoever, but I expect him to receive day two draft capital from the NFL. At this price, he’d be worth a flier.
Finally, LaPorta is one of my favorite sleeper tight ends in this class. Right now, he’s projected as the 52nd player from NFL Mock Draft Database, but he is the TE5 behind Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, Darnell Washington, and Musgrave. However, it’s important to note that Trey McBride was the TE1 in last year’s class and only went 55th overall in the NFL Draft. LaPorta would be an excellent value at the 3.09 with any second-round NFL Draft capital.
- Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier - March 27, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Tight End - February 25, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Wide Receiver - February 18, 2024
