Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.11
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft, and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class, and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, members of DLF use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, we’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, we’ll also include a potential pivot option. In addition, we’ll include options based on the updated 1QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, we will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months if not years, but difference-makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, we’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
Rookie Selection 1.11
The Pick: Zach Charbonnet, RB UCLA
There has been an ongoing debate for months within the dynasty community about who should be considered the RB3 in this class since a strong consensus has formed around the top-2. DLF’s most recent ADP data shows that UCLA’s running back Zach Charbonnet has found himself firmly planted as the RB3 in the 2023 class.
After transferring from Michigan, Charbonnet had two incredibly productive years in Los Angeles, where he racked up 2,496 yards and 27 touchdowns on the ground while adding 61 catches and 518 yards through the air. He has an all-around, complete game that should allow him to produce as a three-down back at the next level. Charbonnet expects to hear his name called on day two of the NFL draft, and that draft capital should cement him as the RB3 and guaranteed first-round rookie selection.
Trade Value
- 1.11 for Jared Goff
- 1.11 for Derrick Henry and a 2023 3rd
- 1.11 for Diontae Johnson
Possible Pivots
1QB Option
Rookie Selection 2.11
The Pick: Cedric Tillman, WR Tennessee
Cedric Tillman is an intriguing and polarizing rookie prospect that brings some major upside but also major concerns. Let’s start with the concerns. First, he will be over 23 years old when he gets drafted at the end of the month, and he has an extremely late breakout age. Over his first three seasons at Tennessee, he played in only six games and caught only eight passes. After an exciting fourth season in Knoxville in which he had 64 catches for 1,081 yards and 12 touchdowns, his fifth season was heavily impacted by an ankle injury that sidelined him for six games and severely limited his production.
While there are definite concerns about Tillman’s profile as a prospect, there are other things about his game to be excited about. At 6’3’’ and 215 pounds, Tillman is one of the few prototypical big-bodied X receivers in this draft class. He is excellent on down-field throws and in contested catch situations; Tillman boasts the 3rd highest career contest catch percentage of any receiver in this class.
Tillman expects to be a day 2 selection in the NFL draft, and if he gets chosen by a team with a need for an outside X receiver, then Tillman could find himself making an immediate impact on an NFL offense.
Trade Value
- 2.11 for Desmond Ridder
- 2.11 for Chigoziem Okonkwo
Possible Pivots
1QB Option
Rookie Selection 3.11
The Pick: Jonathan Mingo, WR Ole Miss
Jonathan Mingo exploded onto the scene after an incredible performance at the NFL combine showcased his unreal athletic ability. Mingo received a RAS score of 9.86, which means his athleticism is in the 98th percentile since 1987. He ran a 4.46 40-yard dash, jumped a 39.5’’ vertical jump, and a 129’’ broad jump.
According to DLF’s ADP data, Mingo was valued as the WR18 and had an ADP 51 before the combine. However, his stock skyrocketed an entire round after that weekend, and he is now valued as the WR12 and the 35th overall selection in rookie drafts.
This change seems like a drastic overreaction to a few testing measurements. Especially when you consider the fact that Mingo is projected to be a 4th or 5th-round selection in the NFL draft. I think draft capital will be incredibly important to see how NFL teams feel about Mingo.
Trade Value
- 3.11 for Samaje Perine
- 3.11 for Allen Lazard
Possible Pivots
1QB Option
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - October 3, 2024
- Navigating Your Dynasty Rookie Draft: Early 1st - August 20, 2024
- Navigating Your Dynasty Rookie Draft: Mid 2nd - August 12, 2024
