Dynasty League Football


Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Brandon Aiyuk

How good is Brandon Aiyuk and what is his trade value?

Brandon Aiyuk

Being good at things is awesome. Are you good at math? Cool! Are you good at building chairs? Sweet! Want to build me one? No? Okay, worth a try. The issue is that being “good” at things will only get you so far. Maybe you can build a totally awesome chair and maybe someone would actually buy that chair and you can make a little money but you won’t make it big time, make a living, or be considered top of your line just being good… Unless people just really like you.

This is starting to hit a little too close to home so I am quickly drawing this one back to fantasy football. There are a lot of good wide receivers in the NFL. Just making it into the league, you must be good. There are a decent amount of very good wide receivers. There are even a few elite wide receivers. It would be great if we were only starting the elite receivers on our fantasy teams and maybe sometimes slotting in a very good WR but in a 12-team league where you have to start ten players, where at least three of them must be wide receivers, you are going to be dipping into the “good” pool.

The way you can take advantage of this situation is by finding those players who people like and see if you can get “very good” prices for the “good” WR you are trying to trade to them. One player that fits this mold to me is…

Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF

Aiyuk came into his rookie season with an ADP of 94. When you see that number, you don’t really get that ‘very good’ feeling. But then Aiyuk finished his rookie season with 748 yards and five touchdowns – very solid for a rookie wide receiver. Remember what we talked about last week when a rookie WR has a very solid first year (Chris Olave)? Yup, Aiyuk went into the 2021 season with an ADP of 38.

The hype was there but the production didn’t follow. Aiyuk finished the season with a very similar stat line to his rookie year – 719 yards and five touchdowns. After a summertime ADP dip down to 77, the 2022 season saw him coming in with an ADP of 67. Maybe it just helps to have lower expectations or maybe the third year is ‘the year’ but an increase in production finally arrived to the tune of 956 and eight touchdowns.

March ADP has Aiyuk at 52 – which is a little high for my liking – but puts him just at the top of the good players.

Let’s turn to the DLF Trade Finder and Trade Analyzer to see if we agree with the value Aiyuk brings to the table or if we should take this opportunity to ship him to a manager who still has the twinkle in their eye of a ‘very good’ Aiyuk.

I like this trade. This is a 12-team league where you have to start two running backs and three wide receivers so both of these will be in starting lineups. I have always been a fan of Miles Sanders and I like the landing spot of Carolina. But if I were anything but a top-contending team, I would pretty easily send away Sanders to go get Aiyuk. Slotting in the good guy WR in my WR3 or flex spot feels like the right spot for him.

I am not sure how much it matters to me that this is a 14-team superflex league, but I have been staring at this trade longer than I should have. The analyzer has this easily on the Drake London/Khalil Herbert side and that is where I land too. The only way I feel bad about sending Aiyuk and a future first is if I think that pick will be top three. Since there is no real way of knowing that anyway, I would gladly allow someone to overvalue my pieces and give me a younger, and in my opinion, more talented wide receiver with the sweetener of a running back who has a chance of a decent workload on an offense with a mobile quarterback.

The back end of the first round in a 12-team superflex draft will still have some very solid players. We are looking at third-fourth-round draft capital running backs and role-player wide receivers. 2024 second-round rookie picks are always a nice little throw-in to get a deal done. But on the other side, we have a wide receiver we have seen finish in the top 24 and is coming off of his best season in the NFL. I think at this point we take the known quantity and roll with Aiyuk. If I am in full rebuild and feel the need to trade away this 25-year-old wide receiver, I think I would need those two picks to just be one earlier first for me to feel better about it.

Good is not bad. Good is good. We would all prefer very good but that isn’t always on the table. There are many leagues where you need to depend on these good players and the key is finding the sweet spot between dynasty value and production and I think Brandon Aiyuk falls right there. The smart move is to poke around the other managers in your league and see if they think he is very good. That is when you strike and get your value.

Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Brandon Aiyuk
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Eric Jungbluth
1 month ago

I flipped Aiyuk, my 1.16 and my ’24 1st for 1.01, i.e. Bijan in a 16-team league 1QB/TE prem.
I’m coming off back2back SB wins and my team is still going strong with Burrow, Chase, Mike Williams, Kittle and Hockenson as foundational pieces.

Where do you standon that, Russ?

Reply to  Eric Jungbluth
1 month ago

Whoever took that bowl of crap from you for the 1.01 shouldn’t be playing fantasy football and should get kicked out of the league.

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