In this series, we explore the difference between DLF Ranks and ADP in superflex leagues. We’ll find out what players the DLF crew are valuing more and less than consensus by position, and whom they don’t.
This week I thought we’d take on the premium dynasty position, wide receiver, based on the latest date.
So, let’s dig in and look.
As you might expect considering the trends we have seen so far, ranks are outpacing ADP at the wide receiver position – nearly two to one in most rounds until the fourth.
The top 24 ranked wide receivers are off the board two rounds before ADP catches up. Once again, while rankings aren’t necessarily reflective of “draft order” for every ranker, it’s a strong inclination of where the minds of the DLF rankers are focused.
Looking back on the ADP trends we saw last week, we already know this is the lowest the top 12 running backs have been drafted since 2017. The inverse is true at wide receiver. Rankings are leaning very heavily into this trend.
Rankers Buy Low
As of February, the rankers were most heavily “high” on Jaylen Waddle, AJ Brown, and Deebo Samuel inside the top 100 picks. With the updated ADP and rankings, we see some changes.
Deebo Samuel, WR SF
This is the most significant rank discrepancy vs ADP right now at the position. While both have Samuel ranked as a top 24 receiver, the positional ranks are notably different and even the difference in drafted rate vs ranks rate doesn’t account for the overall difference of 34 (65th overall in ADP to 31st overall in ranks consensus).
Debating the upside of Samuel in that offense aside, I like the idea. I was having a hard time trying to decide what to do with Samuel in my leagues right now and this convinced me to hold and even investigate some trade offers this week.
His current ADP puts him in the range of Jordan Addison in this year’s rookie class. Per ADP this places Samuel in around the 1.08 in rookie drafts. Balancing the potential “miss rate” of rookie drafts versus the upside of Samuel’s 2023 season seems reasonable. I also took a glance through the DLF Trade Finder.
Since February there have been three significant trades for Samuel in superflex.
- Jahan Dotson and the 1.09
- The 1.06 straight up
- Jared Goff
While I’m a fan of Jordan Addison, and you should always look for the best trade, I think this is a good value in both directions. If you have a team more ready to compete in 2023, Samuel looks interesting right now.
AJ Brown, WR PHI
Also remaining on the list of values from February ADP, the DLF rankers continue to value AJ Brown significantly above ADP. For reference here are the players in ADP who they are valuing lower than him if we were to break all this data into a draft sheet.
Interestingly, the rankers are willing to fade a very interesting tier of quarterback below AJ Brown for that his upside.
While I know dynasty players tend to look over at the age column in fear, I’d remind you that the peak of a wide receiver’s career is 27 and onwards, up to 30 years old. While not as young as Ja’Marr Chase of Justin Jefferson, he has more than enough left to carry a lot of your dynasty teams over several fantasy championships. Don’t be the one worried about 2033 right before 2023.
Or, at least, the DLF rankers are encouraging you to think about it.
The theme in the DLF Trade finder is two first-round picks, but his ADP puts him in league with CJ Stroud, who is ranked around the 1.03 and 1.04 in rookie drafts.
Davante Adams, WR LV
An interesting name, no? I’d have thought DLF rankers would be more fearful by the time a player gets to 30 years old, but they are still holding out top 12 expectations for Aaron Rodgers’ former lead receiver.
I have the lowest positional rank of the DLF superflex rankers, and I feel shame about that. I’m also not one to listen to trade rumors or potential landing spots.
I think the rankings group might be overly fond of his ADP however, making this more about his value. Drafted in the fifth round, he is alongside others who have not seen his ceiling (Michael Pittman and DJ Moore) and Chris Godwin, whose quarterback is perhaps even a bigger mystery than Adams. However, I think George Kittle – in the peak of the tight-end career arc, and offering the positional advantage that might be hard to reach in Adams’ current situation – is more tempting.
In any case, I’d think holding or trading for Adams in a dynasty is only for the strong roster. There’s little chance he retains or improves his value from here.
Rankers Sell High
Who are DLF rankers suggesting we should dislike more in dynasty right now?
No one. DLF rankers like every wide receiver in the top 100 picks. The exaggerated rate of the position in the first 50 picks is unbalancing our formula a little. But even looking at the positional ranks difference doesn’t suggest there’s any news to report.
I decided to expand outside the top 100 picks and finally found two wide receivers who the rankers were – somewhat – significantly lower on than ADP.
For what it’s worth, DLF rankers think you should trade both KJ Osborn and Terrace Marshall for whatever you can get in dynasty.
Judging by their ADP, that should be around Hendon Hooker’s rookie value, which is a mid to early second-round pick in 2023.
But it’s your team, after all.
After last week I successfully managed to make some Aaron Jones trades, including trading Elijah Moore for him in the DLF Podcast league. Let me know if anything in this series has encouraged you to send trade offers, and if anything got done about it, if you like in the comments below.
- Dynasty ADP vs Rankings: Wide Receivers - June 4, 2023
- Dynasty ADP vs Rankings: Running Backs - May 26, 2023
- What We Can Learn From ADP: Each Superflex Rankers Favorite Quarterback - May 14, 2023