2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Rashee Rice, WR SMU
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2023 NFL Draft Prospect Rashee Rice, WR from SMU. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.
Rashee Rice is an illustration of the depth of this wide receiver class. While the 2023 class may be missing the high-end talent at the top that we’ve seen in recent years, it goes deep with players who have a chance to make an impact at the NFL level. The fantasy football impact of this draft class may be harder to find, and that’s a spot where Rice may struggle.
Rice looks the part on film and on paper, but there are several holes that keep him from being a slam dunk wide receiver prospect. We’ll analyze it all and examine Rice’s ability to transition to the NFL.
THE STATS
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Rice had a very nice college career, getting better each and every season as he was afforded larger and larger roles in the offense.
While Southern Methodist is not known as a wide receiver factory in college, Rice has had plenty of competition at the position in his college career. James Proche was a sixth-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and Danny Gray was a third-round pick last season.
At the tight end position, the Mustangs have had a couple of draft picks as well, with Kylen Granson getting picked in the fourth round in 2021 and Grant Calcaterra in the sixth round in 2022. In 2022, with all of those pass catchers in the NFL, Rice had the best season of his career, leading the team with 96 receptions, 1,355 yards and 10 touchdowns.
With all the competition for targets, Rice has an unimpressive breakout age. He is in the 53rd percentile according to Player Profiler. He also isn’t an early declare, but he certainly needed his senior season to climb NFL Draft boards.
There are some analytical red flags with Rice, but when he finally got the chance to be the guy on his offense, he absolutely took advantage with a huge 2022 season.
THE COMBINE
Courtesy of NFL.com.
Looking at the measurables, nothing jumps out as a negative for Rice. He measured in at just over six feet, shorter than his listed height of 6’3”, but not too bad. He ran a decent 40-yard dash, but his 10-yard split was elite. 1.49 seconds was the third-highest of all of the wide receivers at the combine this year, behind only Tre Tucker and Derius Davis. That shows you he should be able to get off the line quickly and beat defenders to the spot he needs to be. That elite 10-yard split gave Rice a 95th-percentile burst score.
THE FILM
Rice shows some really good ability to gain separation from his defenders. When he doesn’t have separation, he excels at jump ball catches. He has really good hands and does a great job of tracking the ball in the air. He’s physical and has the ability to overwhelm opposing cornerbacks or run right by them with his athleticism.
His biggest weaknesses on film appear to be more mental than physical. He’ll sometimes get nonchalant on routes, especially on routes where he isn’t the first read. He also struggles to find the open spot in zone coverage. He’ll need to develop these skills at the NFL level to get onto the field.
The tape and production are there for Rice, but the competition level needs to be taken into consideration. The American Conference certainly is not the SEC when it comes to secondary production. We did see Rice face off against Sauce Gardner in a matchup against Cincinnati last season. Rice was able to make seven catches, but for only 21 yards in a loss to the Bearcats.
NFL DRAFT STOCK
Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.
Rice will almost certainly be a day two pick in this month’s NFL Draft, though some mock drafters have put him up into the first round. Draft capital will be very important for everyone in this tier of wide receiver this year. It is not a very good draft for wide receivers, but after a bad group of free agents and no major trades, teams are desperate to improve at the position. If Rice gets pushed up into the second or first rounds, it will be an indication that an NFL team will give him a chance to be on the field early and often in his rookie season.
Rice’s best landing spot would be somewhere where he can play the Z-receiver role opposite a stud X-receiver. Several mock drafters have him going to the Buffalo Bills. He’d likely only get on the field in three-receiver sets in Buffalo, but they certainly need another wide receiver for Josh Allen.
DYNASTY VALUE
DLF ADP has Rice as the WR62 in startup dynasty drafts, just behind Skyy Moore, who was a second-round pick last year. This seems high to me right now, as there are several wide receivers going later than Rice who I would rather have, including Romeo Doubs, Chase Claypool and Terrace Marshall. I believe Rice will need to be selected in the second round of this month’s draft to be worth a 12th-round pick in startup drafts.
In rookie drafts, Rice’s ADP is 25th overall, the ninth receiver off the board. In my opinion, this is too low. He should absolutely be a second-round pick in rookie drafts and I’ll take him over Kayshon Boutee and Marvin Mims, two receivers who are going ahead of him. When you check out the DLF rookie rankings, you’ll see him in a more appropriate spot, WR8 and 19th overall.
In a recent one-quarterback rookie mock draft at DLF, I selected Rice with the 30th overall pick. I think he is underrated in this rookie class, and should be going much higher than he has been in rookie mock drafts. If he has decent draft capital, his ADP in rookie drafts will go up. With that being said, this wide receiver rookie class is not a great one, and they could struggle to find fantasy relevance at the professional level.
I believe Rice is one of the better receivers in the group behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnston and Jordan Addison, but that isn’t saying much. He’s a value where he’s going in rookie drafts, but I will be looking elsewhere when it comes to startup drafts.
Rashee Rice is not a perfect prospect, but there are plenty of positives that could lead to a successful NFL career. He will need to fine-tune his skills and focus on being the best professional wide receiver he can be. I believe he transitions to the NFL as a third receiver who has the potential to be a second receiver on his team down the road. His value as an NFL player may be higher than his value as a fantasy football player.
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