March Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Tight End

Corey Spala

A new month brings new start-up draft information to break down. This article will focus on tight ends in 1QB leagues. I will note one-year changes for ADP.

The startup ADP was taken from our March 2023 mock drafts. The link will take you to the full list of players.

Introduction

Tight end is a position many people do not care for. If they cannot land Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, or Mark Andrews, then they may decide to punt the position.

Tight Ends

Below is a visual of where the tight ends are being drafted:

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It is clear when drafters miss out on a top tight end they will start to take them as the single-digit rounds end. Young tight ends will subsequently follow and any aging (Darren Waller) tight ends, too.

Notable Selections

Evan Engram, JAC – TE8

Concluding his TE5 season, drafters are awarding Engram with a major swing in ADP. Last year he was going at pick 173.0 and he is currently selected at 100.8. A cloud of injury concerns with drop issues may be the reason for his 2022 ADP. He will be turning 29 this season, which is not old for a tight end. The addition of Calvin Ridley will create increased target competition alongside Christian Kirk, too.

Cole Kmet, CHI – TE12

I am interested in why Kmet rose in ADP, going from 142.5 to 124.5. Scoring seven touchdowns and the assumed development of Justin Fields and the Bears’ offense in 2023 are likely the reasons why. The Bears’ transactions indicate they want to start throwing the ball more. Darnell Mooney will return from his injury and Chase Claypool will look to be involved in the offense more. I did not even talk about DJ Moore, however, the March mock drafters did not anticipate the Bears trading for him.

Kmet will be touchdown-dependent in 2023.

Trey McBride, ARI – TE17

We know McBride is talented and him being behind Zach Ertz, who is recovering from an ACL and MCL injury, has drafters apprehensive. McBride fell one selection from pick 148.0 to 149.0. The Cardinals have a new coaching staff and may be looking for their players in the upcoming draft. This likely means a new addition to the wide receiver room as it currently has little competition outside of Marquise Brown.

The offense will go from the ‘air-raid’ style to a potential 12-personnel scheme, which utilizes two tight ends.

Tight End Risers

Typically we will see young tight ends rise. Similar to other positions, when a rookie flashes their potential their future value (and ADP) will shift. Tight ends like TJ Hockenson and Pat Freiermuth technically rose in ADP, but by only four or five selections. I will avoid mentioning small changes.

David Njoku, CLE – TE9

The Browns have been a notorious run-first team. Njoku managed 80 targets and set a career-high in receptions in 2022. Deshaun Watson did not look like his former self and held back the passing attack. Heading into 2023 drafters may be assuming Watson finds his groove for the 2023 season. These mock drafts happened before the Browns recently acquired Elijah Moore.

Similar to Engram, the addition of a wide receiver creates increased target competition. The Browns would not have traded a second-round pick to acquire Moore (plus a third-rounder) if they did not have plans to involve him in the offense.

Juwan Johnson, NO – TE19

From being undrafted to his current ADP of 149.7, Johnson has catapulted himself into fantasy relevancy. Sean Payton left town and in 2022 the Saints rewarded Johnson over teammate Adam Trautman. I am unsure if Michael Thomas’s absence is the factor for Johnson’s 65 targets. The Saints did re-sign him for a reason. The addition of Derek Carr presumably boosts the pass catchers in the Saints’ offense.

Rookie tight ends I would like to mention are Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE16) and Jelani Woods (TE28) – two tight ends who are battling for a top target on the offenses (depending on who their teams draft). Darren Waller has crushed my Daniel Bellinger dreams.

Tight End Fallers

You may have noticed in the off-season there will be players getting hyped up. This makes sense. We love to root for players we believe in, and it is more rare for tight ends compared to other positions.

Dalton Schultz, HOU – TE13

A beneficiary of the Cowboy offense, drafters may have known he was destined to depart Dallas this off-season. His ADP fell from 92.2 to 128.3. The uncertainty of his future team may be the reason, or him not being a top talent. We may see his ADP rise next month as he is currently Houston’s top pass-catcher.

Dawson Knox, BUF – TE19

This is a situation where the tight end benefits the NFL team more than our dynasty teams. His ADP fell from 107.7 to 158.5. Knox has 15 touchdowns over the last two seasons. However, we do not want touchdown-dependent players in our lineups. Sure, in bestball this is fine. The Bills need a true WR2, and if they do acquire one, it will take away from the additional pass catchers not named Stefon Diggs.

Conclusion

Young tight ends often are drafted lower with the preconceived notion they take time to develop. The McBride example is an exploit to find in startup drafts. His value is lower because he is behind an aging tight end recovering from knee surgery because of the “TE2” depth chart placement. Tight ends who score touchdowns may find themselves drafted higher than they should be but remember, touchdowns are not sticky.

It is important to solidify a tight end and have them be a set-and-forget player. But don’t reach. Depending on when your draft is, there are months before you need to set a lineup for the upcoming season.

It is important to note a tight end’s talent, team scheme, and target competition. The final variable is potential future movement. To conclude the McBride example, he is waiting for his time to come. Ertz’s contract indicates the team is easily able to move on following the 2023 season. Pending Ertz’s health, we work off the notion McBride will potentially claim the TE1 role in 2024.

corey spala
March Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Tight End