2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Marvin Mims, WR Oklahoma
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2023 NFL Draft Prospect Marvin Mims, WR from Oklahoma. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.
Marvin Mims is currently one of the biggest values of this year’s draft class. There are numerous rookie mock drafts where he falls to the end of the second round or maybe even into the third round. When you peel back the layers of his prospect profile you will find a wide receiver who has a diverse skillset that could make an impact for their NFL team.
For those of you who are expecting to draft a running back with their first-round pick and still want to get a quality wide receiver added from this year’s rookie class, you might be able to snag Mims at an affordable price.
THE STATS
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Mims led the team in receiving during his freshman season. He also tied Theo Wease with a team-leading 37 catches. His breakout game came against TCU when he caught four balls for 132 yards and two touchdowns. He was also very efficient, averaging 4.07 yards per route run. His performance during his freshman season made him a huge riser in devy leagues going into his sophomore season.
2021 was a weird season for the Sooners. Spencer Rattler took a major step back. We saw Caleb Williams step in as a bright-eyed freshman. The team’s offensive production took a major hit as the team was figuring out what to do at quarterback. He still managed to own a 20.59 percent market share of Oklahoma’s passing production. This was his official breakout season. This was his second-straight year leading the team in receiving. His best game of the season came against Texas when the coaching staff pulled the trigger on benching Spencer Rattler. Mims instantly showed a rapport with Caleb Williams and made some big plays. In that game, he caught five balls for 136 yards and two touchdowns.
We saw his resurgence during his junior season in 2022. He exceeded 1,000 yards and caught over 50 passes. This was his most dominant season as he owned a 32.72 percent market share of the team’s passing production. He also had 2.66 yards per team pass attempt. Mims also averaged 17.0 yards per target and 20 yards per catch.
From a market share perspective, Mims had a very productive career. He has an age-19 breakout age which indicates that he has the potential of making the leap to the NFL level. He also capped off his career with a 32.72 percent market share. It’s good to see him increase his total throughout his career. It’s also good to see him post a number at the top end of the curve. Considering the leadership transition at Oklahoma, the fact he stayed with the team and improved his numbers is a major win.
THE FILM
Mims’ game pops on tape. One of the main things you will notice from his highlight tape is his deep speed. He is a threat to get behind the defense to make big plays. His ball skills are underrated as he plays bigger than his size. He also does a very good job at timing the ball while it’s in the air to make the grab. Mims made some beautiful catches during his career. One of his most notable catches came during his junior season when he was able to reel in the ball behind the defender’s back. He’s also known for making Willie-Mays-like highlight-reel catches downfield.
His speed also makes him dangerous after the catch. When given the ball in space, he can quickly eat up yards.
One thing that gets overlooked is his route running. Mims does a good job at selling his routes while using efficient footwork to create separation. There’s no nonsense in his movement, his short-area-quickness makes it easy for him to get to his spot to make the play.
It’s easy to notice that he lacks the ideal size for the position. During some situations, his size will impact his ability to win at the catch point. It also affects his catch radius. His smaller stature could limit his role on his new NFL team.
THE MEASURABLES
Courtesy of DLF’s Historical Combine Data App.
Mims had a great performance at the NFL Combine. He posted an electric 4.38-second 40-yard dash, making him one of the fastest wide receivers at the combine. He also had a 39.5-inch vertical along with a 129-inch broad jump. Those numbers indicate that he’s a very explosive athlete while also demonstrating that he can jump out of the building. Due to his 183-pound frame, his speed score ranks in the 60th percentile among wide receiver prospects. Speaking about his frame, he is a little bit light in the pants but isn’t to the point that developing into a productive receiver at the next level is out of the realm of possibilities.
DYNASTY VALUE
Courtesy of DLF’s Rookie ADP.
Mims is currently being valued as the WR7 in DLF’s Rookie ADP. He is also being drafted on average as the 17th player off the board, making him a mid-late second-round pick in rookie drafts. Considering his draft profile, this is a huge value. You are getting a wide receiver with good production metrics, athleticism score, and more than likely decent draft capital in the middle of the second round.
Typically, drafting the WR7 in most rookie drafts is not a safe bet. Most of these players were propped up due to something standing out in their prospect profile, but either had a deficiency or fell in the NFL Draft, causing them to fall in dynasty ADP. Mims could develop into a good dynasty asset, but he could also be one of the cleanest dirty shirts in the hamper when it comes to this lackluster wide receiver class.
When we zoom out and look at this class from a macro perspective, it’s not very good. We have some good players at the top, but none of them are in the generational category or have a profile that blows the doors off. Mims’ profile might be even more camouflaged in a deeper draft class.
However, the fact this wide receiver class is so ambiguous might be a sign we could find a few diamonds in the rough. After all, everyone is focused on the top running backs in this class which could allow us to catch some values at wide receiver. From what you get from Mims’ profile, he is the value of this year’s group of wide receivers.
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