Rookie Draft Pick Value Rundown: Who Should You Expect to Select?
Welcome to the Rookie Draft Pick Value Rundown. Over the past few months, the staff at DLF have completed a series of articles exploring the value of past, present and future rookie draft picks. The series is broken down into smaller pick ranges to give you a better understanding of what you can expect in specific portions of the draft. For these sections, we used DLF’s Superflex ADP.
This article is going to recap that series and look at some of the key points we learned. It will also give us a chance to analyze any trends or serious dips in talent level from one draft slot to the next.
2023 Early 1st (Pick 1.01 to 1.04)
Historically the early first round is the “can’t miss” section of the draft and this year is no different. The value of the players available in the early first round is likely to hold for multiple seasons even if they disappoint or suffer an injury as a rookie. For example, we’ve seen recent rookies such as Clyde Edwards-Helaire hold their value right up to the point they went off a cliff.
The early first tier can be broken down into two sub-sections this year, Bijan Robinson and the quarterbacks. We will start with Robinson. If you own the 1.01 congratulations, you have one of the most valuable rookie picks in recent memory. Robinson is seen as the consensus 1.01 in all formats and is a generational talent. He is the easy pick for any team that traded for the first overall pick and has a reasonable chance at contending in 2023.
Courtesy of DLF’s March 2023 Superflex Rookie ADP.
The question then becomes: what if you earned the first overall pick and are a rebuilding team with multiple holes to fill? A generational rookie running back while sexy is not likely to significantly help a team with little to no talent. In this situation, the manager at 1.01 is best served to trade away the first overall pick for a treasure trove of assets.
There are two ways that managers in this situation should go about trading the pick. If you are a team desperately in need of a starting quarterback, the gameplan should be to trade back to no lower than the 1.04. This will allow you to pick up additional assets while still leaving you in a prime position to draft a potentially elite quarterback. If quarterback is not your prime concern, then you can trade back as far as the 1.10, that’s the point in rookie drafts where you will still be able to get the last of the elite running backs or wide receivers (Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison or Zach Charbonnet) but if you trade back any further, you risk being caught on the wrong side of a massive tier drop.
As mentioned above, the remainder of the early first round is made up of the three potentially elite quarterbacks; CJ Stroud, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson. If you are in need of the quarterback of the future, then this is the area you need to be drafting, once Richardson goes off the board it is a tier drop to Will Levis and then a Grand Canyon-level drop off to the remaining quarterbacks in this class.
If you pick between 1.02 and 1.04 and are not one of the quarterback-needy teams, you are in a great position to follow the Chicago Bears ‘strategy and sell off your pick to the most desperate quarterback-needy team. Again, if you choose to trade down from these picks to avoid drafting a quarterback, do not trade past the 1.10 or you risk losing out on an elite-level talent.
2023 Mid 1st (Pick 1.05 to 1.08)
The middle of the first round is where things get interesting. There isn’t a significant drop off in value from the early first to mid-first (aside from Robinson), rather we see a shift in positional availability.
In this range we see the consensus RB2 Jahmyr Gibbs going off the board as well as typically one if not two of the elite wide receivers, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba typically going first. We also have the last of the potentially elite quarterbacks going off the board in this range in Will Levis. He has by far the least value of the top four quarterbacks at this point but still has great value. Once again, if you are not in need of a quarterback, this is a good opportunity to trade the pick to a team desperate to draft the last stud quarterback on the board.
If you are a team in need of multiple assets, this is yet another prime opportunity to trade down a few picks to acquire additional assets. There is essentially no tier drop between the wide receivers or running backs available at 1.05 and the ones available at 1.10. Trading down several spots to add an additional second-round pick is a great strategy given the cluster of players we will find when we get to that section.
2023 Late 1st (Pick 1.09 to 1.12)
This is the first range of picks where we see a huge variance in value as the quality of players available quickly drops from elite to good but not great. Picks 1.09 and 1.10 are where you want to be if you draft in this portion of the first round. Do not trade down. According to DLF’s March ADP, this will be the last chance to acquire an elite wide receiver or running back. As mentioned earlier Johnston and Charbonnet typically fall into this range and the difference between their floor/ceiling and the floor/ceiling of the first two players in the next tier is massive.
The late first round sees us drop from prototypical, highly productive college studs who have Pro-Bowl potential to a large collection of slot-type receivers such as Josh Downs and Zay Flowers and gadget running backs like Devon Achane.
The key to drafting in this range is that after pick 1.10 there is going to be a large group of players who are essentially equal, so make sure you get in on the elite tier before it disappears.
2023 Early 2nd (Pick 2.01 to 2.04)
This is one of the worst spots in the draft to pick as far as value goes. Once we get to round two the difference between the player available at 2.01, currently Jalin Hyatt, and the player available at 2.12, currently Kayshon Boutte, is negligible. In fact, in that instance I have Boutte rated significantly higher.
Rookie drafts this year will see more pick trading than in any other year in recent memory and the second-round players are largely responsible for that. The strategy I will be employing in the early second round will be called “Guy or Bye”. Essentially that boils down to if there isn’t a guy I really want when I am on the clock, then it’s time to say bye and trade away the pick. If you can trade the 2.01 for a later second-round pick and get a player of almost identical value while picking up an additional asset, then it’s an easy move to make.
2023 Mid 2nd (Pick 2.05 to 2.08)
The middle of the second round is a great place to be. There is no such thing as ADP at this point. It’s a great time to look at the construction of the other teams in your league to determine which position other managers may target. That will serve you well in the second round as these players are grouped together so tightly that ADP comes down to your position of need.
There are some high upside targets in this range of the second round who make for prime targets. We see two extremely talented running backs come off the board in Kendre Miller and Roschon Johnson as well as the first tight end Michael Mayer. While Mayer is an uber-talented tight end prospect, he has fallen from the tail end of round one to the middle of round two as most fantasy managers have gotten wise to the pitfalls of using early draft capital on rookie tight ends.
This point of the draft is a great spot to get a day-two running back with high upside. As such, it is best to hold off on drafting a tight end. Let someone else take the first tight end off the board and wait until round three if you are tight end needy. The depth in this tight end class is the best in recent memory and there will be plenty of options later in the draft.
2023 Late 2nd (2.09 to 2.12)
The late second round is the last chance for fantasy managers to draft a player with high upside. Once round three rolls around the dart throwing begins.
This portion of the draft has a few players who have fallen significantly due to injury or poor showings at the NFL Combine. Tyjae Spears and Tank Bigsby are great values at the back end of the second round and could be consistent producers for fantasy managers.
Hendon Hooker also marks the last opportunity for managers to draft a quarterback with the pedigree to be a long-term starter, he will miss a good portion of his rookie season due to injury, but he presents another significant value at the end of the second round.
Picks 2.09 to 2.12 are also great spots to draft a tight end if you need one, as the next tier of tight ends will likely go off the board at the start of round three.
2023 Early 3rd (3.01 to 3.04)
By the time round three rolls around, most of the players with a track record of production are long gone, leaving drafters to steer full speed into the second tier of tight ends. Once running back and wide receiver dries up, the TEs2-5 are quick to go. If you are in need of a tight end, draft one here or miss out.
We also see a post-NFL Combine riser and faller in this section, Rashee Rice looked good and will probably climb higher than his current ADP while Chase Brown’s ADP has been in a free-fall since a fumble-plagued Senior Bowl.
The front half of the third round is sure to have some players on the board with potential, but hits may be few and far between. While this draft class is certainly deeper than previous years, it is still round three and as such should be seen as a roll of the dice and not a sure thing regardless of where you pick.
2023 Mid 3rd (Pick 3.05 to 3.08)
The next significant drop-off in talent level occurs at approximately this point in rookie drafts, and it is a massive drop-off. At this point in rookie drafts, we see a collection of talented players, mostly from small schools, many of which are unproven and profile to be role players in the NFL. While there are a few players with the potential to carve out a role on an NFL offense, these players should be seen as future depth pieces for a roster.
In this range we have some lesser-known players who possess the skill set but are not high-profile names. The last of the highly targeted tight ends has managed to stay on the board this long but is not without his blemishes.
This is a prime area in the draft to target a day three speedster that could have an Elijah Mitchell-type breakout if a starter were to be lost to injury in front of him. We have some great taxi squad stashes in this range who could provide significant long-term value should they get the chance. As always, should any of these late-round picks hit and gain value, it is the prime opportunity to flip them during the off-season for a more long-term option.
2023 Late 3rd (Pick 3.09 to 3.12)
The tail end of round three is where we see the final drop-off between potential fantasy assets and Hail Marys. Once we make the turn into round four it’s a barren wasteland of long-shot prospects. Sam LaPorta figures to be one of two fantasy-relevant tight ends at this point in the draft. The other – Zack Kuntz – is currently going undrafted and will be discussed in the later round breakdown.
Again, we get to a place in the draft where ADP is largely unreliable. This range in the draft is not without its share of alluring names, the pint-sized Tank Dell has been a hot name and the blazing Deuce Vaughn has the possibly best speed in the class despite his lack of size. The common theme here is speedy players who are well below what is considered NFL size. They are all going to see limited roles in the NFL and may experience durability issues due to their stature.
2023 4th Round Pick (Pick 4.01 to 4.12)
Round four is where the final drop-off occurs. There are still some intriguing options in the early to mid-fourth round, but those options dry up quickly leaving little to no remaining upside.
Intriguing options such as Xavier Hutchinson and Tyler Scott could certainly provide depth to a fantasy roster but much like every player in this ADP range, they will rely heavily on draft capital and landing spot.
It’s interesting to note that several prospects who have been impressive throughout the pre-draft process have still managed to fly under the radar. If you aren’t interested in any of the round-four sleepers on the DLF ADP chart, a few sneaky options can be Zack Kuntz and Tyson Bagent. Both are currently going undrafted in five-round rookie drafts despite Kuntz possessing near-perfect athleticism scores.
2023 5th Round (Pick 5.01 to 5.12)
The final round of dart throws comes in the form of Hail Marys. A few of these players may find their way onto your taxi squad and the odds say that one of them could develop into a fantasy asset but at this point in the draft, it’s all about playing a hunch. To put round five into perspective, my favorite round five target in 2022 rookie drafts was Julius Chestnut. Chestnut was an undrafted running back out of Sacred Heart who checked all the boxes but had no draft capital or expectation attached to him. A year later and Chestnut still sits on a few of my taxi squads, but he was essentially a wasted pick with no chance at success.
There’s no shortage of potential in the fifth round of rookie drafts according to DLF’s March ADP. Stetson Bennett and Max Duggan are both quarterbacks with a proven track record of winning at the collegiate level. They have both fallen to the fifth round as they are considered over-aged, low upside prospects. With that in mind, they could be worth stashing on a taxi squad in case they get a chance at the NFL level.
The final round of rookie drafts still has a few low-percentage dart throws worth taking a shot on, most notably running back Keaton Mitchell and wide receiver Puka Nacua. The duo has impressed throughout the pre-draft process and continues to gain steam in drafts.
That’s a Wrap
This is one of the most unique draft classes in years. The running back class is the deepest it has ever been but outside of Robinson and Gibbs there are no guaranteed fantasy studs, it’s very possible this class produces two top-five running backs and no other usable backs.
The wide receivers, on the other hand, are a similar class to 2022. There are a number of players who have high fantasy upside but there is no Justin Jefferson in this class. Instead we may find a collection of WR2s without a true alpha.
The quarterbacks are particularly intriguing. This group has five QBs who could become bonafide superstars, but it could also produce five quarterback busts just as easily. These quarterbacks are almost certain to get draft capital, so regardless of their early career success, they should hold onto their value long enough for you to re-coup your draft capital before they bottom out.
The tight end class could be the best class we have ever seen. There doesn’t appear to be a top-six tight end in this class but it’s entirely possible that four of these tight ends will fill out the bottom half of the top 12 for years to come.
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