2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: CJ Stroud, QB Ohio State
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2023 NFL Draft Prospect CJ Stroud, QB from Ohio State. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.
Over the last decade, a stigma has developed around Ohio State quarterbacks and their inability to translate their game to the next level due to being surrounded by otherworldly talent and a lack of need to develop their game.
Does CJ Stroud have what it takes to buck the trend and become a bona fide star in the NFL? Let’s dive in.
The Stats
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Stroud’s career in Columbus has been a rocky one, to say the least, and I can say that because I’ve had a front-row view over the last two seasons. I recently graduated from law school at Ohio State and have watched every single one of Stroud’s games over the last two seasons; most of them in person.
Stroud’s sophomore season in 2021 started with a bit of a hiccup as Oregon came to Columbus and beat the Buckeyes in week two. Stroud threw for nearly 500 yards and three touchdowns, but the fans were anxious to see what freshman sensation Quinn Ewers was all about. With the pressure of an early loss, and a highly-touted freshman breathing down his neck, Stroud just continued to improve all season.
He finished 2021 with 4,435 yards, 44 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. He had the fourth-highest Pro Football Focus grade in the country and finished second in efficiency behind only Grayson McCall of Coastal Carolina. Stroud placed a large exclamation point of his sophomore season with his Rose Bowl performance against Utah where he threw for 573 yards and six touchdowns on an over 80% completion percentage.
Stroud persevered through a tough junior season in which he lost his two other Heisman-hopeful teammates in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back TreVeyon Henderson for most of the year. After a second consecutive loss to Michigan to end the regular season, there were many fans in Columbus calling for Ryan Day’s job and labeling Stroud a massive disappointment.
What did Stroud do a month later? He had the best game of his career in the Collge Football playoff semifinals against Georgia, the best defense he ever faced. Without his top two running backs, and Smith-Njigba, Stroud put on a masterful performance throwing the football for 348 yards and four touchdowns, but most importantly he showed the kind of playmaking and pocket presence that Ohio State fans, and NFL evaluators, have been begging to see from him. That performance was important for reaffirming the fact that Stroud is a future NFL star at the quarterback position.
The Film
Stroud has been applauded for his pinpoint accuracy and the smoothness of his release, for his entire career, but this performance against Georgia in the CFB playoff shows Stroud is the complete package at quarterback. After the game he commented that he heard the criticism about his lack of playmaking with his feet; he sure took that to heart.
This game was the perfect showcase of Stroud’s ball skills. He can make any throw on the field: deep cross, comeback across his body at the sticks, down the sideline and between multiple defenders. Every single throw hits the receiver right in stride, and he puts it where only his guy can make a play. Three of my favorite plays of Stroud’s career are in this game.
At the 8:25 mark in the first quarter Stroud avoids pressure, moves the pocket, and throws the ball 45 yards downfield on a rope to a spot only Marvin Harrison Jr can catch it. It’s very nearly a perfect throw.
If you’re not a fan of that throw because “Stroud is always throwing the ball to future NFL stars, anyone could do that” then I want you to focus on the 1:00 mark in the second quarter. Here, he throws the ball perfectly over the linebackers but underneath the safeties to a former walk-on special teams player running a seam. There’s nowhere else Stroud can place that ball without it ending as a turnover, or Xavier Johnson being leveled by a Georgia defender.
The last sequence I want to highlight is a set of plays with 43 seconds left in the fourth quarter. With Ohio State’s season on the line, Stroud stands in the pocket and perfectly throws a 25-yard deep out across the field. Then, on the very next play, he feels the pocket collapsing and takes off running and picks up 20 more yards to put the Buckeyes into field goal range.
The Measurables
Stroud did not do any athletic testing during his time in Indianapolis for the NFL Combine, but he did measure in at 6’3’’ and 214 lbs. While he didn’t wow the crowd with his physical traits, he showed the NFL world his incredible arm skills and accuracy.
NFL Network’s draft expert Daniel Jeremiah raved about Stroud’s performance while broadcasting the combine and Jeremiah turned to Twitter to continue his praise, where he said: “CJ Stroud is having one of the best throwing sessions I’ve seen at the combine.”
Dynasty Value
Stroud is currently the QB1 and 1.02, according to DLF’s March Superflex Rookie ADP. There has been a lot of change and movement between the top three quarterbacks this season thanks to Anthony Richardson’s incredible combine performance, and the Panthers trading for the number one pick.
Courtesy of DLF’s March Superflex Rookie ADP.
While Stroud didn’t participate in the athletic testing at the combine, it is still the belief that the Panthers traded up to number one to get Stroud, who is the current betting favorite to go first overall after the Panthers sent 14 representatives to the Ohio State pro day to watch his workout.
As of February, Stroud is currently valued as QB16 and the 36th overall player in superflex startup drafts. When the March ADP drops soon, I expect he will be even higher up that list. He is continuing to impress NFL teams with his ability to throw the football and play the position at a high level. While there are major concerns about the other three top QB prospects in this draft, Stroud comes with virtually zero question marks.
If you have the chance to draft CJ Stroud in rookie drafts or startups you should be thrilled about the opportunity. He’ll most likely be the number one overall NFL Draft pick, and he has all the tools to become a generational talent in the NFL.
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