2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Jordan Addison, WR USC

Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2023 NFL Draft Prospect Jordan Addison, WR from USC. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.

The changes to the transfer portal mean players switching teams are becoming far more common. Because of that, we will see more players like Jordan Addison, who switch teams mid-way through college, chasing the opportunity to play with an elite quarterback and improve their draft stock.

If you’re looking for traits that translate to success at the next level, the best place to start is often route running ability. It is something that can be difficult to quantify. However, anyone can watch Addison and see he is a natural separator and a smooth route runner. The main question people will have about him becoming a superstar fantasy player will be his lack of size. He lacks the ideal frame and bulk at 5’11” and 173 lbs, but will that stop him from developing into a star?

THE STATS

Courtesy of Sports Reference.

Despite being a true freshman, Addison immediately hit the ground running, leading the team in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. He contributed in almost every game, putting up either five receptions or 50 yards in all, bar two games. Addison was the offense’s focal point, putting up a 23.9% target per route run and a 2.00 yards per route run number.

Despite an impressive freshman campaign, his sophomore season put him on the target list of NFL talent evaluators. Combining with Kenny Pickett in his final college season Addison was top six in receptions, yards, and touchdowns across college football. He also had impressive advanced numbers, with 2.94 yards per route run and 26.6% targets per route run. Addison won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver and was a consensus first-team all-American.

With Pickett leaving for the NFL, Addison entered the transfer portal and decided to join up with Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams at USC. Despite being in a new offense, Addison still produced impressive numbers putting up over 800 yards and eight touchdowns. Some may have been disappointed with the overall counting numbers; however, if you dig a little deeper, the efficiency numbers were still great, with a target per route run of 27.6% and yards per route run of 2.78.

Addison ticks a lot of the right boxes from an Age-adjusted production standpoint. He produced in every season he played through college, and the numbers back that up. A 20% breakout at 18, and a 30% breakout at 19.

THE FILM

You can pick any game throughout his college career to watch, and the positives are incredibly easy to see. Addison is a natural route runner who easily creates separation and can manipulate defenses with his subtle changes of pace. He can set up and stack corners with ease to enable him two-way go’s at the top of his routes. He is not a player who can only win at one stage of the route or in one way. He has a bag of skills and subtle movements to create the separation.

His next-level body control and agility not only allow him to create separation during his routes. However, it also helps him win contested catches despite his smaller frame. He can manipulate his body to snag off-target throws or secure the ball despite being in unnatural positions.

Occasionally, he can be overpowered by more physical and powerful corners. Still, he has a varied release package that should allow him to play either inside or outside at the next level and not be pigeonholed into a pure slot role.

THE MEASURABLES

Courtesy of NFL.com.

Addison underwhelmed at the combine, running a slower-than-expected 40-yard dash. However, a 4.49 is okay and is a little faster than a player. I have compared him to Diontae Johnson, who ran a 4.53 at his combine.

Had the 40-yard dash been the standalone poor measurement, it could have been explained away. However, Addison could have been more impressive in the vertical and broad jumps. Some will point to these as serious concerns about his athleticism translating to the NFL. However, this reiterates how outstanding Addison is as a natural receiver that, despite lesser athleticism, he still produced consistently throughout his college career.

DYNASTY VALUE

Courtesy of DLF’s March ADP.

Addison is currently the WR3 and the fifth overall player in DLF’s latest ADP. He will easily be a first-round selection in rookie drafts this year. I would be surprised if he fell outside the top half of the first round in rookie drafts, unless something drastically goes wrong between now and the end of April.

In startups, Addison is the rookie WR2 and a fourth-round startup pick. He is in an exciting area of drafts surrounded by some hyped second-year players in Treylon Burks and Christian Watson, who each flashed but have questions about them going forward. His being valued so closely to Burks is undoubtedly relevant as Burks was a similar value this time last year but disappointed as a rookie and is still being valued in a similar range.

Addison’s value in rookie drafts will depend on his draft capital and landing spot. However, given his ability to separate and command significant volume all over the field, he should be a safer type of prospect.

I really like Addison; he is my WR1 in this class. He has an excellent opportunity to produce the second he lands in the NFL. He could be an elite WR2 for an NFL team, and although he lacks the “Alpha” physical traits, his ability to get open consistently will ensure he becomes a favorite of his quarterback.