Dynasty Fantasy Football Battle: Christian Kirk vs Calvin Ridley
One of my favorite situations in dynasty fantasy football is when two similarly valued players are on the same team at the same position. So often, each player has his supporters in the dynasty community, and there’s a debate about which player should carry more value. I want to examine a few of these situations, breaking them down from statistical, ADP/trade value, and future situation angles. I did this series for the last two years, so if you want to know what these articles are like, I provided the links at the bottom of this page.
This time, I want to look at a pair of wide receivers on the Jacksonville Jaguars, Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley. Both wide receivers started their careers on other teams before landing on the Jaguars with star quarterback Trevor Lawrence. However, their career paths couldn’t be more different. Also, if you want a bit more background on the Jaguars, I did a recent article about their potential offensive breakout in 2023.
Let’s jump into the comparison between Kirk and Ridley!
Statistical Duel
Both Kirk and Ridley were in the 2018 NFL Draft class, and both were relatively premium prospects. The Falcons selected Ridley in the first round with the 26th overall pick, and the Cardinals chose Kirk in the second round at 47th overall. At the time, Ridley carried slightly more value in May 2018’s DLF ADP, although both players were outside the top 30 wide receivers.
Let’s start with Ridley’s career arc. He immediately jumped onto the scene for the Falcons. The team already had a top-tier wide receiver in Julio Jones, and they were a high-powered passing offense led by Matt Ryan. Additionally, Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper represented solid alternative receiving options.
However, despite the plethora of weapons, Ridley still broke out as a rookie.
Chart courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
He averaged 12.8 fantasy points per game, putting up 64 receptions for 821 yards and ten touchdowns in an entire 16-game season. Even though Jones dominated the target pie with 170 targets, Ridley still finished as the WR22 in 2018, impressive for a rookie.
Then in 2019, Ridley progressed even further. He improved to 15.15 fantasy PPG and became the Falcons’ secondary receiving weapon behind Jones. While Austin Hooper finished second on the team in targets and receptions, Ridley had more yards and led the team in touchdowns despite playing only 13 games.
But in 2020, Ridley finally became a superstar. Ryan had his final high-volume passing season, where he threw for 4,581 yards and 26 touchdowns. Jones also struggled with injuries, as he only played nine games. Therefore, Ridley dominated, putting up 90 receptions, 1,374 yards, and nine touchdowns in 15 games. He averaged an impressive 18.9 fantasy PPG, finishing as the WR5 and fourth in fantasy PPG among wide receivers.
At that point, it seemed like Ridley was on course to become one of the best receivers in the NFL, both for real-life and fantasy football. Additionally, the Falcons traded Jones to the Titans in June 2021, leaving them with rookie tight end Kyle Pitts and emerging wide receiver Russell Gage as complementary weapons for Ridley. However, everything went wrong in 2021.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He only played five games, and he was suddenly incredibly inefficient. As you can see, he dropped to a 59.6% catch rate and 5.4 yards/target, both career lows by a wide margin. Then, he walked away from football for mental health reasons, and it seemed like he wouldn’t return during the 2021 season. During his time away from football, he bet on a Falcons game, leading to a one-year suspension from the NFL through the 2022 season.
Even before the suspension, trade rumors circled Ridley, as it seemed like he wanted a change of scenery from the Falcons. Eventually, the Falcons traded him to the Jaguars right before the trade deadline. The NFL reinstated him this off-season, making him fully eligible to resume his career with the Jaguars in 2023.
In contrast, Kirk struggled to establish himself on the Cardinals early in his career.
Chart courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
He failed to finish higher than WR38 over his first three seasons, falling outside the top 50 in 2018 and 2020. In 2018, the Cardinals were an offensive disaster under head coach Steve Wilks and rookie quarterback Josh Rosen. Longtime veteran WR1 Larry Fitzgerald continued to dominate targets, as he was the only player to break 100 targets or 600 receiving yards.
Of course, the Cardinals thoroughly cleaned house after 2018, hiring Kliff Kingsbury as their head coach and adding Kyler Murray as their new starting quarterback with the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. That year, Kirk improved, as he formed a top-two duo with Fitzgerald. They had similar target numbers, although Kirk averaged slightly more yards and receptions per game.
Unfortunately, Kirk’s career took a downturn in 2020 after the Cardinals traded for DeAndre Hopkins.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Hopkins completely dominated targets, finishing with more than double any other player’s targets, receptions, and yards. Kirk fell to a career-low in yards and receptions per game, although he started on the fantasy radar with six touchdowns. After 2020, Kirk mostly seemed like a bust, as he barely outproduced an aging Fitzgerald even in 2020. The Cardinals also added A.J. Green in free agency and drafted Rondale Moore in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
However, despite the negative indicators, Kirk managed his career-best season so far in 2021. Hopkins missed seven games with injuries, and Kirk finally played an entire season. Therefore, he led the team in receptions, targets, and yards, although Hopkins still scored more touchdowns. Most notably, he managed to keep Moore on the bench in the slot receiver role, demonstrating his value on an NFL field.
Unfortunately, the Cardinals couldn’t retain Kirk in free agency, as they had too many other weapons on the roster. Therefore, the Jaguars handed him a much-maligned four-year, $72 million contract with $37 million guaranteed, forming a free-agent trio alongside Zay Jones and Evan Engram. With Lawrence and new head coach Doug Pederson, Kirk finally established himself as a premier receiving weapon.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
He finished as the WR12 and 18th in fantasy PPG but provided a consistent floor for fantasy managers. He scored 15 or more fantasy points in eight games while rarely completely busting. Overall, he had 84 receptions on 133 targets for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns, representing career highs in all categories.
ADP and Value Comparison
It’s bizarre to compare Ridley and Kirk’s ADPs, as the NFL just reinstated Ridley.
Chart courtesy of DLF ADP Comparison App.
Ridley held a clear ADP edge over Kirk early in the 2022 off-season, although his ADP tanked after his yearlong suspension dropped between February and March’s data. After that, Kirk remained ahead of Ridley in ADP, peaking at 48.5 overall in October. However, after the Jaguars traded for Ridley, his ADP began to rise, hitting a peak of 75.33 in February.
For further comparison, we can examine DLF’s dynasty rankings, where Kirk is the WR34 and 67th overall, while Ridley is the WR36 and 74th overall. Additionally, the DLF Trade Analyzer is another source for value comparison.
Again, Kirk holds a slight advantage, although the two players aren’t far apart in value.
The Future and Conclusion
As mentioned earlier, Kirk is under a long-term contract with the Jaguars, so he’s a part of their long-term plans. In contrast, Ridley will play the 2023 season under the fifth-year option of his original rookie deal, worth $11.1 million. The Jaguars might give him a contract extension, but as of now, he will be an unrestricted free agent after 2023.
Additionally, the two players have a relatively significant age difference, as Kirk is about two years younger than Ridley. Kirk will turn 27 years old in November, while Ridley turns 29 in December. Between that factor and Kirk’s more proven track record in the Jaguars’ offense, I would easily go with Kirk over Ridley in dynasty leagues.
2023 Entries: George Pickens vs. Diontae Johnson
2022 Entries: Jaylen Waddle vs. Tyreek Hill, Kadarius Toney vs. Wan’Dale Robinson, Juju Smith-Schuster vs. Skyy Moore, Chase Claypool vs. George Pickens, Damien Harris vs. Rhamondre Stevenson, Amon-Ra. St. Brown vs. Jameson Williams
2021 Entries: Courtland Sutton vs. Jerry Jeudy, Ronald Jones vs. Leonard Fournette, Corey Davis vs. Denzel Mims, Hunter Henry vs. Jonnu Smith, Cooper Kupp vs. Robert Woods
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