2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Sean Tucker, RB Syracuse

Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2023 NFL Draft Prospect Sean Tucker, RB from Syracuse. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned and stay ahead of your league.

Sean Tucker is a very electric running back prospect with a strong production profile. He is one of the top running backs in a deep running back class. He has the potential to be a cornerstone asset to your dynasty team. All we need to do is wait and see where he goes in the NFL Draft. In the right situation, he could be one of the top running backs in all of dynasty.

THE STATS

Courtesy of Sports Reference.

Tucker led Syracuse in rushing during his initial freshman season. He had three 100-yard games. His best game came against Georgia Tech when he rushed for 112 yards and two touchdowns. He owned a 25.33 percent market share of the team’s total offensive output. If Syracuse would have been able to play a full season, there’s a good chance he would have eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark.

The breakout officially happened the following year. He finished the season ranked sixth in rushing and had nine 100-yard rushing performances. He averaged 4.11 yards after contact per attempt with 1,014 total yards after contact. He had big performances against Clemson, Wake Forest, North Carolina, and Boston College. At this point in his career, the only question we had about his production profile was his usage in the passing game.

Syracuse’s offense relied more on the pass in 2022. This is reflected in Tucker’s usage as he ran 93 more routes in 2022. His 297 routes ran ranked fifth among all running backs in college football. He also saw his usage in the slot ramp up to 55 snaps compared to just five the previous season. Also, the fact that the team was in negative game scripts led to them having to lean more on the passing game.

Even with more work in the passing game, he still managed to finish third in the ACC in rushing. He had five 100-yard rushing performances on the season. Tucker finished his career off with a bang with 231 yards and four touchdowns in his last two games. He had five 100-yard performances and three multi-touchdown games.

THE FILM

There are a lot of good things to say about Tucker’s game. He is always one of the most explosive athletes on the field with pull-away speed. His ability to eat chunks of yards makes him very dangerous in the open field. He’s also very elusive by using quick footwork to chain together moves. His burst combined with his decisive running nature will allow him to house long runs if the running lane is cleared for him.

His 2022 campaign wasn’t as strong as his 2021 campaign when it comes to his consistency when running between the tackles. He did, however, demonstrate more in the passing game. One thing that highlights won’t show you is how he struggles as a pass-blocker. Also, we shouldn’t expect him to overpower defenders at the point of contact.

THE MEASURABLES

Tucker didn’t participate in any of the drills at the NFL combine. He did measuring at 5-foot-9 and weighed in at 207 pounds which was a little bit lighter than expected since most people were expecting him to weigh in the 210-212 range.

He did have a short stint where he ran indoor track at Syracuse. He posted a PR 6.90 second 60m time. He also placed 15th in the Dr. Sander Invitational. Tucker also made a track and field appearance and placed 13th in the 60m dash at the Virginia Tech Invitational. In high school, he won the MIAA indoor title for the 55-meter dash two years in a row. He was also a champion 100-meter and 200-meter sprinter during his junior season.

This is a very good indicator that Tucker has homerun-hitting speed. It’s also a good measure of his explosiveness, because he’s capable of competing on the track at the power-five level with good times. For what it’s worth, even though it’s not a direct comparison, Tyreek Hill recently ran a 6.70 60m.

DYNASTY VALUE

Courtesy of DLF’s March 2023 Rookie ADP

Tucker is currently being valued as the RB6 in rookie ADP. He is currently flirting with being a first-round selection in rookie drafts. His value will be dependent on where he goes in the actual NFL Draft. If he received day-two draft capital and lands in a decent situation, then odds are good he gets bumped up to the later portion of the first round. If he falls in the draft or lands with a team that is not optimal for his fantasy production, then we could see his stock hover around the early to mid-second round range.

Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Comparison Tool.

This is a very deep running back and Tucker’s ranking of RB6 might not be the greatest historical indicator when we compare his ADP to running backs from previous classes. His stock right now is very ambiguous and could climb substantially on draft day. Also, his ADP might not be the appropriate value for him since there could be some paralysis by over-analysis with some of the other running backs in this class. Usually, the deeper the class more volatile the values can be before the NFL Draft.

If he does get valued in the RB6 range of ADP, historically fantasy gamers will speculate on him during the early portion of his career. I would imagine the market would bake in that he’s in a stacked draft class after the draft and allow his value to insulate during the first couple of seasons of his career. Some of the running backs listed received day three draft capital and didn’t stack up metrically to Tucker’s profile. With that being said, we are not getting an apples-to-apples comparison.

With the veteran running back market influx, I would be surprised that we catch him outside the top 100 after the draft. He would have to fall to obscurity on draft day which doesn’t seem likely. He will be a valuable dynasty prospect during the early stages of his career. As long as he’s productive, we should only see his value increase in dynasty.