2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Bryce Young, QB Alabama
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2023 NFL Draft Prospect Bryce Young, QB from Alabama. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned and stay ahead of your league.
Throughout the course of NFL history, there isn’t a long track record of diminutive quarterbacks who have experienced high levels of success. Kyler Murray and Doug Flutie are the two most prominent examples of pint-sized quarterbacks who managed to produce at the NFL level, with various degrees of success. Dynasty managers have been foaming at the mouth over him in recent years in anticipation of the next generational quarterback to hit rookie drafts.
Bryce Young is currently valued as the top quarterback in this rookie class and with a solid showing at the Alabama Pro Day, he should easily maintain his status as the premier asset among rookie quarterbacks. The question is: will his talent level be enough to overcome his short frame?
THE STATS
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
The California native was a much-anticipated prospect coming out of Mater Dei High School in Santa Ana as a five-star recruit before joining the Crimson Tide. His path to college football saw him heavily recruited after being selected to the U.S. Army All-American Bowl, where he was named Offensive MVP in addition to being chosen as the All-American Bowl Player of the Year.
His collegiate career got off to a slow start primarily as a freshman in 2020, where he acted primarily as a backup to incumbent starter Mac Jones. He appeared in seven games for Alabama while throwing for 156 yards and one touchdown with a completion percentage of 59.1% and QB rating of 96.0, solid peripheral numbers for a backup for sure but not exactly what the highly recruited he had hoped for yardage-wise.
In 2021 as a sophomore, he had his breakout season where he passed for 4,322 yards, throwing for an astronomical 559 yards against the Arkansas Razorbacks. He also chipped in a ridiculous 43 touchdown passes with him reaching five touchdowns in a single game on three separate occasions, once in the aforementioned game against Arkansas as well as against New Mexico State and Southern Miss.
The sophomore signal-caller saw his completion percentage take a huge jump to 68.0% while his QB rating dipped slightly to 87.6. As a sophomore breakout, he went on to lead Alabama to a College Football Playoff appearance as they defeated Cincinnati handily before ultimately falling to Georgia in the title game. After the conclusion of his sophomore season, he brought home an impressive collection of hardware as he was awarded the Heisman Trophy, Maxwell Award, Davey O’Brien Award and Manning Award in addition to being a consensus First Team All-American.
As a junior in 2022, the reigning Heisman winner’s production took a small step back, but he still managed to produce a solid statistical season where he passed for over 300 yards on five separate occasions with his season high coming against the Tennessee Volunteers where he racked up 455 yards on route to throwing for 3,007 yards on the year. He managed to throw for 27 touchdowns on the season and threw five touchdowns on two separate occasions, once in the season opener against Kansas State and once more against Utah state in the season finale. He managed to improve his completion percentage from his freshman year climbing to 64.5% but saw his QB rating dip slightly to 86.2. The Crimson Tide fell short of a College Football Playoff berth in his final college season, instead settling for a date and ultimately a victory over Kansas State in the 2023 Allstate Sugar Bowl.
His collegiate career closed seeing him accumulate a total of 8,356 passing yards and 80 touchdowns, good for second on Alabama’s all-time passing yard list behind only AJ McCarron who finished with 9,019 yards in his career with Alabama.
As far as devy managers go, Young was always a prized asset. He came into college with much hype and admiration and that’s exactly how he leaves college. His price has likely never fluctuated and in all devy leagues, he has been rostered since his rookie season, but for those of us in dynasty or redraft leagues he may still be available. His production exploded in 2021 and took a slight dip with the roster turnover in Alabama in 2022 but it still remained at an elite level that is more than worthy of an early first-round rookie pick.
The only question that has come into play clouding his value is whether he has the size and durability to be a long-term solution at quarterback. If he were 6’0”, he would be the hands-down 1.01 in rookie picks over even Bijan Robinson. As it stands, he measured 5’10” at the combine which will result in him slipping behind Robinson for sure and possibly even CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson.
If he gets top-ten capital in the NFL Draft – which is almost a foregone conclusion at this point – he will be well worth the QB1 price in rookie drafts and fantasy managers should buy his “combine height dip”. Young has the makings of a generational quarterback, don’t get hung up on his size.
THE FILM
The game tape posted above is the 2021 SEC Championship Game against Georgia. It is 14:02 of pure football artistry as he carves up one of the best defenses in college football. In this clip, you can see all his strengths on display. He has a football I.Q. higher than any other quarterback in this draft class and by all accounts he is a likeable, respected and hardworking player who would be a treasured asset for any coaching staff to have.
Young has an aura to him. He has a presence on the field, and it is most noticeable while he is in the pocket. He has an unmatched ability to march his team up and down the field against any competition in any situation, and he does so with the utmost composure and confidence. His presence in the pocket extends even further when he is faced with the blitz, he can quickly read the defense and pick up a pass rush in a way that leaves him dangerous to attack. As an athlete, he seems to have the instincts of a ferocious animal and does his best work when backed into a corner.
On multiple occasions above, he shows the ability to make any throw to any area of the field. He throws with pinpoint accuracy to the short and deep parts of the field and is able to place the ball exactly where his receiver needs it. He also shows the ability to take some zip off the ball when the situation calls for it and can fit a pass into even the tightest window.
He wasn’t a prolific rusher in his collegiate career but showed solid footwork and the ability to bounce outside of the pocket and set up on the run when needed while continuing to scan downfield for open targets. He won’t be breaking any 40-yard dash records, but he has more than enough speed to pull the ball down and take off running whenever he feels the need to. He also shows a great instinct for knowing exactly when to scramble to buy time and when he needs to take off and rely on his legs. If given the change, he could develop a solid rushing baseline as an NFL quarterback.
THE MEASURABLES
Young didn’t do any of the testing at the 2023 NFL Combine, his only measurables from the event were a weigh-in. He came in at 5’10” and 204 lbs. It’s not surprising that he weighed in 10 lbs heavier than his expected playing weight and opted out of testing, this is likely because he packed on water weight before the event to artificially bulk up to put to bed some of the concerns regarding his size.
He likely would have tested poorly since the extra weight would have sapped some of his athleticism. I anticipate him running through the full barrage of testing at the Alabama Pro Day on March 23, where he will once again weigh in at his expected playing weight in the low 190s.
DYNASTY VALUE
Courtesy of DLF’s March Superflex Rookie ADP.
He is currently the QB2 and sits as the 1.03 according to DLF’s March Superflex Rookie ADP. He managed to hold onto the QB2 position despite not participating in any of the combine tests – as mentioned above – and he will likely go through a full workout at his Pro Day.
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Comparison Tool.
As you can see from the above chart, the QB2 in any given draft class is a boom or bust proposition. The past three draft classes have given us two quarterbacks that are in the upper echelon of value while the third has completely flatlined, but in fairness to Matt Corral, he suffered a season-ending injury in training camp as a rookie and has never played a snap in the NFL so it remains to be seen what will become of him.
Young’s dynasty value is going to fluctuate heavily between now and rookie draft season. The Scouting Combine will surely bring some changes for March as well as Pro Days and ultimately the NFL Draft. This is a very tight group of quarterbacks at the top with as many as four sitting in tier one. CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis could all end up as the QB1 in this class in addition to Young, and the final positional ranking for these four quarterbacks will be largely dependent on landing spot and NFL Draft capital.
According to DLF’s February ADP, he is currently valued as QB13 and 23rd overall in superflex leagues, while he is QB15 and 138th overall in single leagues. He has cleared the most important hurdle in the pre-draft process for him – he measured in at an acceptable but not perfect height and weight. Barring something disastrous at his Pro Day or a fall out of the first round of the NFL Draft, there is no reason to expect his ADP to go anywhere but up. The post-combine hype has been around Anthony Richardson and his historical combine, and now is the time to buy the modest dip in Young’s value.
This is as low as he is ever going to be valued. If you have a first-round rookie pick high enough to select him, draft him with confidence and enjoy a generational talent that will only go up in value.
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