2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB Alabama
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2023 NFL Draft Prospect Jahmyr Gibbs, RB from Alabama. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been highly regarded by fantasy football analysts for a long time and he reinforced those beliefs this past season. After two years at Georgia Tech, he transferred to Alabama and was one of the best running backs in the country. The move allowed him to show off his versatility as he played all over the field as a running back and even receiver at times under Nick Saban.
No one doubts Gibbs’ talent as a player, however, his NFL Combine measurements will give fantasy managers concerns about his role at the next level. In a class where most have their fair share of flaws though, he still ranks as the second best running back prospect. His overall value in the dynasty fantasy football landscape is very high as well considering the age of the other top running backs.
The Stats
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Gibbs didn’t need any time to get acclimated at Georgia Tech, immediately seizing a large role within the offense. His freshman season was ultimately shortened by Covid, however, that didn’t stop him from making a name for himself. He accumulated 763 all-purpose yards and seven touchdowns, showing off his skills as a receiver right away.
As a sophomore, Gibbs was once again a prolific receiving threat, but the offense suffered overall as a whole. He still had 1,211 yards of total offense despite his role slightly dwindling in the latter half of the season. These factors, in addition to the elimination of transfer rules, led to him leaving Georgia Tech for Alabama following the 2021 season.
In Tuscaloosa, he started off in a modest role before a very successful run to end the year. After rarely taking on a heavy rushing workload in his career, Gibbs was able to run for 678 yards in his final seven games. Furthermore, he caught 42 receptions for 378 yards showing why he has one of the best three-down skill sets in the 2023 class.
The Film
Not surprisingly in the initial stages of this film against the Tennessee Volunteers, we see Gibbs isn’t a typical north and south runner. Instead, he fights to get around the edges which can lead to him getting bottled up in the backfield. That was only going to last so long though as he broke off a nice touchdown run at the 1:25 mark while making a defender miss.
This trend continues in the tape as he is bottled up frequently with chunk plays sprinkled in between. One of those big plays comes at the 4:22 mark when Gibbs is able to take just one cut and be 15 yards downfield before the defenders know it. If he gets any daylight ahead of him he has the speed to be able to turn it into a massive gain.
However, it is clear in the film that Gibbs won’t be asked to be a chain mover on many third and shorts at the NFL level. While he won’t be breaking many tackles in the backfield either, the potential for a big play is there anytime. Once in the open field, he was able to make the Tennessee defense miss with a variety of cut and juke moves that should get fantasy managers excited.
The Measurables
Gibbs is one of the best athletes in this running back class as he ran a 4.36-second 40-yard dash and had a 91st-percentile speed score. He didn’t participate in all the drills at the NFL Combine but he didn’t need to. His performance matched his game film leaving little doubt his speed will translate to the next level.
However, the biggest headline regarding Gibbs from the NFL Combine was his size. He measured in at 5’9” and 199 pounds, which is just at the 25th and 14th percentile for running backs respectively. Given his height though, his overall BMI is actually closer to average than it appears. While he doesn’t project to be a high-volume rusher at the NFL level, his work in the receiving game will mitigate some of those concerns.
Dynasty Value
Courtesy of DLF’s Rookie ADP.
Gibbs is currently the second-ranked running back and overall prospect in dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts. This likely won’t change much barring a major shakeup in his expected draft position next month. His potential in PPR leagues gives him a leg up on the RB2 spot, but he’s much closer to Zach Charbonnet in value than Bijan Robinson.
In DLF’s February 2023 Startup Dynasty ADP Gibbs is going just behind Rhamondre Stevenson and right ahead of D’Andre Swift in fantasy football drafts. This seems like a fair spot given his talent and uncertain circumstances ahead of the NFL Draft. There could be some room for movement, however, he should slate in somewhere between lower RB1 and upper RB2 territory.
The Conclusion
Gibbs is a premier athlete who reinforced that at the NFL Combine, running the seventh fastest 40-yard dash of any of the players in attendance. He’s extremely explosive and has as an impressive receiving resume as any running back in the class. Particularly in PPR fantasy football leagues, this will give him an immediate floor of production.
The biggest concern for Gibbs is his size and that he never took on a full workload in college. This won’t change in the NFL so he will have to maximize the opportunities he does receive.
The fantasy production of pass-catching running backs is also more sporadic than those who get consistent rushing volume. As a pure runner, Gibbs can break a long play at any time, but his frame will limit him in short-yardage situations too.
Overall, Gibbs is an elite dynasty fantasy football prospect whose largest concern is he won’t ever be a true bell-cow. How many of those truly exist in the NFL nowadays anyway though? Austin Ekeler and D’Andre Swift are great player comparisons for Gibbs, and are examples of players who don’t need rushing volume to succeed in fantasy.
