2023 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Scouting Combine Reactions
Another NFL Scouting Combine is in the books, and we’ve now got a ton of data points to compare this class with historical numbers and see how the 2023 class stacks up. For the most part, I felt like the bulk of this class did what we expected them to do.
Most of the fast players tested fast. Most of the explosive players tested explosively. Most of the players we thought would struggle struggled. A few guys put up historic numbers (Hello, Anthony Richardson), but for the most part, it was a fairly predictable combine.
In this edition of the 2023 Off-Season Mock Draft Series, I’m not going to focus on a single mock in particular. The plan is to look at a few recent mocks that were completed after the combine and see who, if any, is moving up and down in mocks compared to before the combine. I’ll be referencing relative athletic scores (RAS) quite a bit. Those numbers and images are all courtesy of Kent Lee Platte and his online database. Please keep in mind I’m using an extremely small sample size following the combine, but I suspect these early trends will continue.
Quarterback
The quarterback position should be the most straightforward to compare. The big four remain the same, but the order seems to be getting shaken up a bit. Bryce Young had clearly been the top quarterback in the class for dynasty purposes, but the combine appears to be shaking that up. Young didn’t throw or participate in on-field drills, and it looks to have hurt him in the eyes of dynasty owners. I’ve seen Young drop to QB3 repeatedly in mocks, and in my personal rankings, I have considered moving him to QB4 (Will Levis looked better than anticipated at the combine, and Young’s size concerns me).
So, if Young is moving down, who is moving up? So far, it’s been split between Anthony Richardson and CJ Stroud. Richardson’s historic combine performance has propelled his stock in both NFL and fantasy circles. With one exception, Richardson has been the first or second quarterback selected in every post-combine mock I’ve seen. You can’t deny the upside of Richardson’s athleticism. What he brings with his legs alone raises his floor significantly for fantasy. Even if he never clicked as a passer, he could generate enough fantasy production on the ground to more than make up for any of his shortcomings- and he seems to be the biggest winner from the combine in 2023 after putting together an all-time combine performance.
Will Levis and Hendon Hooker are still the QB4 and QB5, and I do not see anything changing going forward. They both represent tremendous value to QB-needy dynasty teams who aren’t drafting early enough to lock up one of the top three signal-callers.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson is locked in as the top running back this year and as the top overall pick in all league formats. Jamyr Gibbs is just as locked in as the RB2 and has typically been the second or third non-QB taken in each draft too. Only once has he fallen to the fourth-position player off the board, so assume he’ll be a top-three pick in all single QB leagues and a top-six pick in superflex leagues. Finally, rounding out the top three running backs, Zach Charbonnet looks to be locked in thus far too. According to DLF’s pre-combine ADP, he was RB3, and now that the combine is behind us, he’s still been the RB3 in every draft I’ve seen. Once we get passed this top trio, though, things start shifting a little bit.
Pre-combine, RB4 through RB10 were Zach Evans, Devon Achane, Sean Tucker, Tank Bigsby, Kendre Miller, and Tyjae Spears. Post-combine, it’s looking like 4-10 is now Roschon Johnson, Achane, Evans, Spears, Tucker, Chase Brown, and Bigsby. So, most of the same name, with a little shakeup in the exact order – except for two. Roschon Johnson and Chase Brown appear to be the big winners for fantasy so far. Johnson looks to have climbed six spots, while Brown is up eight. The other player with a notable climb is Evan Hull. Recent Drafts I have seen make it look like Hull is currently RB14 after being RB19 before the combine. All three looked very good at the combine and posted outstanding relative athletic scores (RAS).
Conversely, a few players dropped a couple of spots too, but nobody seems to be suffering a Kyren Williams-esque free fall after the combine numbers were posted. The biggest losers as of now appear to be Tank Bigsby and Kendre Miller, both of whom look to have fallen at least three spots following the combine.
Much like the case with Bryce Young, Miller seems to be suffering from the same out-of-sight-out-of-mind situation. His lingering injury kept him from testing at the combine, and now he has slipped down the rankings in the eyes of dynasty owners. Sean Tucker also didn’t test, and he’s fallen a couple of spots himself. Finally, Tank Bigsby was one of the few combine disappointments. He was tenth in the 40-yard dash, 13th in the vertical leap, and 11th in the broad jump. I suspect he’ll continue to fall as we get closer to the NFL Draft, and his slide will be the worst at the position.
Wide Receiver
Depending on the pre-combine mock, you could have seen any order of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, or Jordan Addison in the top three at receiver. Following the combine, Smith-Njigba looks to be locked in as the WR1. Johnston looks like he’s trending towards being the WR2, but Addison is still hanging around, which I found a little odd as he was considered by many to be one of the combine “losers” at the wide receiver position.
Once we get through the top three wide receivers, there was slight movement among the next six receivers. Zay Flowers, Josh Downs, Jalin Hyatt, Marvin Mims, Kayshon Boutte, and Rashee Rice are still WR4 through WR9- just shuffle the order. This group will likely remain pretty fluid, even through rookie drafts, as most dynasty managers have their favorites in this group. The lone exception is Flowers, who is currently locked in at WR4. I can see him jumping Addison if he gets enough NFL draft capital. After being WR4 and WR7, respectively, heading into the combine, Jalin Hyatt and John Downs are in a dance for the WR5 and WR6 spots. When one of them goes fifth, the other goes sixth – every single time.
Like the running backs, nobody did so poorly that they completely tanked their draft stock. Speaking of tanking… ladies and gentlemen: Tank Dell. Dell climbed as high as WR10, but following his poor combine performance, it looks like he’ll be in the WR15 range when draft season commences. Kayshon Boutte arguably had an even worse combine performance. Still, he seems to only be falling two spots, but Boutte brings a lot more name cache than Dell and comes from a school with a more established wide receiver track record in the NFL, so he’s probably got some insulation built in against a giant tumble.
Two of the biggest climbers following the combine appear to be Jayden Reed and Jonathan Mingo. I’ve been a fan of Mingo for a while, and I liked what I saw from Reed during Senior Bowl week. So, although I’m sad the buy-low window is closing on me, I’m happy to see the rest of the fantasy community come around on both of them. Reed looks to be inching close to WR12 territory, up from WR16 pre-combine, and Mingo looks to be just behind Reed at WR13, but he was WR27 a month ago. Mingo’s climb makes sense, as he had the second-best RAS in the 2023 class among receivers. For Reed, however, it’s a bit of a mystery since he didn’t blow the combine out of the water.
Tight End
This year’s group of tight ends is pretty deep; there might be seven (or more) fantasy-relevant options when we look back at this class in 2028. At the top of the group is Michael Mayer. He was the clear TE1 ahead of the combine, and following the combine, he still seems to be the TE1. I’m a little surprised by this, as his combine performance was a bit of a letdown. Among tight ends, Mayer was 10th in the broad jump, 11th in the 40-yard dash, and 12th in the vertical jump. His tape is excellent, and he passes the eyeball test on the field, but I was still a little surprised to see him retain his locked-in TE1 role in the class, especially since several other players had strong combine performances.
But the lack of movement at the top spot shouldn’t be a shocker since the pre-combine top-six is the same as the current, post-combine top-six. After Mayer, it’s been Dalton Kincaid, Darnell Washington, Luke Musgrave, Sam LaPorta, and Tucker Kraft for a few months. Looking at the tight end relative athletic scores following the combine, I would have thought we would have seen more movement than what we have seen. Each player seems to have their own backers at this point; it’ll be interesting to see what happens with their respective landing spots on draft day.
Old Dominion Senior Zack Kuntz blew the doors off the combine with an all-time RAS performance, and he should be trending upwards in these mocks. Sam LaPorta also had a very strong showing and has the Iowa-Hawkeye-tight-end-in-the-NFL trend going for him too. Unfortunately for LaPorta, it will be tough to supplant any of the top four tight ends in the NFL draft or dynasty drafts. Michigan’s Luke Schoonmaker was never selected in any pre-combine mocks I saw anywhere, and now post-combine, he’s been TE7 in multiple drafts.
I’ll be back next week with another mock draft, and we’ll see if the small sample trends I observed above hold true with a little more time under everyone’s belt to digest the combine results. Again, extra special thanks to Kent Lee Platte and his online database for all the RAS information and data; it’s a great tool to compare players with their peers historically. Thank you for reading, and I’ll see you back here next week!
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