Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Ranking the 2023 Rookie Wide Receivers
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. This year I’ll be answering questions from you via Twitter, Discord, or the old-fashioned way (via email). We’re creeping closer and closer to the NFL Draft, with the Scouting Combine and all the data points it provided us now in our rearview. The mock drafts we will see in the next few weeks hold more water than the ones held pre-combine. Just because it’s rookie fever season, don’t neglect the rest of your roster. It’s still a great time to make moves to strengthen your teams.
Help me out with some questions yo! https://t.co/aGeZS71EIt
— Shanesays (@ShaneIsTheWorst) March 5, 2023
Ranking the rookie wide receivers
How do you rank JSN, Addison and Q Johnson after combine? Tier 1 WRs still? Huge gap between any of them?
1 QB. Start 10 skill guys. Have the 1.01 (Bijan), 1.02 (Gibbs) and 1.04. Want JSN. Should I package the 1.04 and 2.04 and try to move up? Prob get 3.01 back.
— Brad Watson (@bradleyjwatson) March 5, 2023
I need to preface this answer with the caveat that my rankings are only final after the NFL Draft. Even then, they could still move depending on when rookie drafts are held in fantasy leagues. You should never stop taking in information and allowing it to inform your decisions. That said, after the combine, I would rank them Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, and Jordan Addison, with Zay Flowers coming for Addison. Though JSN did not run the 40, he crushed in the drills that he did run at the combine.
New Jaxon Smith-Njigba #RAS just dropped. Told y'all he was gonna test fine. (With correction)https://t.co/RrcrPi3mcG #RAS pic.twitter.com/3uVGeFjJRh
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 5, 2023
Based on his testing, and his 75th percentile breakout age, JSN is my WR1. Johnston also passed on the 40, but the rest of his testing drills were elite, his 11.2 broad jump tied for second among wide receivers, and his 40.5 vertical was third among wide receivers. He also looked great in the catching drills. Addison unfortunately was a tad slower than expected, running a 4.55 in his first 40 attempt, though that did improve to 4.49 on his second attempt and he weighed in at just 173 lbs.
But as a reminder my rankings, as yours should be as well, are fluid. We still have pro days, and most importantly the NFL Draft to help cement our rankings. If Addison is drafted as the WR1 of the class it will affect my rankings.
Bijan Robinson not the 1.01?
What type of league is Bijan not the 1.01
— Ruben Almada (@Superflexdegen) March 4, 2023
There are only a couple of types of leagues where I would not select Robinson as the 1.01. Triple-flex leagues, where you can start up to three quarterbacks, would dictate that quarterback would be the move. I could also justify taking a quarterback over Robinson in a 2QB league (not the same as superflex leagues). In 2QB leagues, you must start two quarterbacks every week, as opposed to superflex where you may start two quarterbacks.
Selling Kyler Murray
How close are you on Kyler vs the 1.02? I took a small sample and most people said 1.02. What do you need on top of the 1.02 to smash accept?
— Ben Zickel (@BZickel) March 5, 2023
The Murray fatigue the dynasty community has is astounding. In the most recent DLF ADP, he’s the QB11, despite having finished as a QB1 each of his four seasons, with an average finish of QB6.25. Even last season, which most agree was a disappointing season for Murray, he still finished as the QB7 in PPG.
To set a proper baseline, the quarterbacks who finished just ahead of Murray, were Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields. Would you trade either of those players for a singular 1.02? I’m hoping you answer no to that question. What’s more important is the lack of logic when dealing Murray for a single first-round rookie pick.
If you’re competing next year, and want to fill the hole that Murray will leave due to missing half the season, is the 1.02 going to help you win immediately? Presumably you’ll use that pick to draft a quarterback, whether it is Bryce Young, CJ Stroud or Anthony Richardson, and none of those quarterbacks are likely to provide high-end QB1 upside next year. If you’re rebuilding it also makes little sense to trade Murray now for a single pick when his market is depressed and you’re trading him at a discount. Even if you don’t believe in Murray long-term, you’re better served letting him sit on your roster until his value rebounds and then trading him for a better package than just one rookie pick.
So, no, I would not trade Murray for the 1.02. To even entertain trading Murray, I would need another top-ten dynasty quarterback along with that pick, or another early rookie pick, 1.04 or better. Based on DLF’s latest rankings, and the Dynasty Trade Finder app, you are unlikely to be able to make a deal like that, so Murray is a hold for me.
Fools gold?
Richardson is the ultimate test of upside versus floor, risk versus reward. This week at the combine he had rave reviews for his interviews with teams, and his physical testing confirmed that he is an elite athlete.
Anthony Richardson RAS so far, with official split, doesn't change his score, which you'd expect. https://t.co/g6dAq3ALm4 #RAS pic.twitter.com/MaoHEx3i7W
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 4, 2023
But as Raj eludes to above, Richardson was objectively bad as a college quarterback.
Though Richardson is often compared to Cam Newton, Newton was a much better passer in college, completing over 65% of his pass attempts with an 11.2 AY/A. Statistically, Josh Allen is a closer comp for Richardson, but as you may have heard many times over, Allen was an outlier. Athleticism at the quarterback position in and of itself doesn’t mean that a prospect will hit, and I tend to lean more on college production, while taking into account athleticism, when ranking quarterbacks. With Bryce Young measuring in at 5’10” and 204 lbs, to buttress his elite production profile, I would still draft Young over Richardson when drafting a quarterback of the future for my fantasy team. If I had two top-14 quarterbacks on my roster then I would be fine drafting Richardson banking on his traits.
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