Dynasty Decision: Rashod Bateman

We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.

Rashod Bateman, WR BAL

When he was drafted in the first round of the 2021 draft with the 27th pick, Bateman was expected to come in immediately and take over as the lead receiver on the Ravens and be the prototypical X receiver they’d required since before Lamar Jackson had joined the team. However, after battling niggling injuries and only playing in 18 of a possible 34 games through his first two seasons in the league, we’re approaching a decision point for Bateman’s dynasty value. If he can break out, he could be a bargain this off-season. It could be the end of his dynasty value if he disappoints again.

Previous Performance

If you view Bateman in terms of year-end stats, it’s not a pretty picture. WR71 and WR113 isn’t something to write home about. Considered in a points-per-game capacity, it’s a mildly better story where he has finished around the WR60 mark in back-to-back seasons, averaging 8.6 and 8.9 points per game.

Last year, if you removed the Tampa Bay game where he got injured, things look better. He produced 10.7 points per game, which would be enough for WR42 on the season. Still not precisely impressive. However, if you look at some of the advanced statistics, it paints a slightly more positive picture. Of wide receivers with more than 25 targets, he finished 23rd in targets per route run, 13th in yards per route run, and second in fantasy points per touch.

If he can stay healthy and play an entire season, there is potential for a true breakout campaign.

Situation and Usage

Most people will point to Jackson and the passing offense and suggest that the run-heavy nature is too much to sustain a second receiving star after Mark Andrews. However, in his three seasons with the Ravens, Marquise Brown finished as the WR46, WR36, and WR22, respectively. Bateman profiles as a player to receive a higher target share than Brown, so he could easily outproduce those numbers. That’s before you mention the change in offensive coordinator. Greg Roman is out after four years, and they’ve replaced him with Todd Monken, who should balance out the offense more and lean towards a more pass-heavy approach than his predecessor.

Heading into next season, Bateman will likely battle Andrews for the target lead in the offense. Still, given his targets per route statistics, you can expect him to fall in the 20-25% target share range, which should be enough to produce top 24 wide receiver numbers.

Injuries and Contract

Bateman is still on his rookie contract and won’t be a free agent until 2025 at the earliest. From an injury standpoint, Bateman has often been injured, but it’s difficult to say that there are any trends at this stage. He missed five games in 2021 due to a groin strain that he picked up in the preseason and delayed him getting onto the field, but he has not seen any further issues. In 2022 he missed 11 games due to a freak foot sprain and Lisfranc injury. Neither should have any impact on him moving forward and hopefully, he can now have a healthy stretch of his career.

ADP and Trade Value

He is currently the WR39 in February ADP, and the trade analyzer has him worth around a late 2023 first-rounder. Recent trades are below; as you can see, his value is a little all over the place, ranging from worth a late first to a middling second.

Conclusion

If you’re viewing Bateman’s career to date, he has been an enormous disappointment. Injuries have affected him, but the fantasy production when he’s been on the field hasn’t exactly been anything to write home about. In situations like this, I return to my pre-draft evaluation. I was high on Bateman and believe he has the size, athleticism, and route-running ability to be a premier receiver in the league. As his advanced stats showed, when he was on the field, he was targeted heavily and produced when the ball was thrown his way.

He is worth the risk at the current price of a late first-rounder in a 1QB league. I would happily pay more if needed to get the deal done.

Undoubtedly there is a risk in acquiring Bateman. The Lamar Jackson contract saga is hanging over all of this, meaning he could be without a quarterback. However, that is all baked into the current price, and you may even be able to temp Bateman away for an early 23 second.