Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues
As the NFL Combine approaches, we kick off the first major event of the dynasty off-season. Information is constantly changing and the dynasty values will move in lock-step with it. This series will focus on that market pulse by highlighting players at each spot. Here are four wide receivers to watch before NFL free agency:
Nico Collins, HOU – Buy
This one might surprise many reading this column as Collins feels like a prime candidate to get major competition in the next few months. The response? Who cares? He is what he is: a solid wide receiver who posted top 40 numbers in every major category (market share, yards per route run, targets per route run and air yards share) and is poised for a major quarterback efficiency upgrade. At WR66 in the latest ADP, he feels like a threshold wide receiver being priced at a “he is fading” price.
The Move – Considering this draft class, I do not want to pay draft picks for Collins. I would consider a third-round pick. Otherwise, look to pivot down off of another wide receiver (Gabriel Davis for instance) and snag Collins plus. Any plus is a major win.
Parris Campbell, IND – Sell (pending free agent)
Campbell is a pending free agent and the market valuation puts him just shy of ten million as he enters the mix. It is unlikely the Colts bring him back as he has struggled to stay healthy playing only 32 games in his first four seasons. At WR82 in the latest ADP, he feels like a player you can wait on for the window and hope there is some buzz leading right up to free agency where he might sign a market-inflated deal.
The Move – Ultimately, I would sell for any third-round pick. If that does not fly, consider moving up in the draft a few slots (anywhere) and getting a running back in a trade for Campbell. Ultimately, the hope is that free agency masks his “roster clogger” status so you can unload him for something useful.
Robert Woods, FA – Drop
I passed on the “hold” for this week as there is very little actionability with that term as we get this close to NFL free agency. One player who recently made the news was Woods as the Titans released him prior to the new league year. This may help him latch on quicker and ultimately, he will likely get paid more than his production warrants. With that said, despite his career numbers, he moves quickly into “roster-clogger” range and is a cut candidate.
The Move – The move is to cut in specific formats (28 or less roster spots) and do so for ‘Any RB On A 53’. The bounce-back value for Woods will never be higher than a roster spot and any league with off-season waivers should be one where you get aggressive moving this type of player out for a speculative play at another position.
Mecole Hardman, KC – Add
Ultimately, it is unlikely that Hardman ends up on a waiver wire, but if he does, consider an add. This is low-hanging fruit, but assuming a player like Campbell can draw a pick upgrade or a third-round pick, Hardman is nearly identical. The reason he becomes an add is simply because we have not seen him outside of Kansas City, where any wide receiver outside of Tyreek Hill has been able to garner any meaningful share. The window may be slight, but expect him to get another shot in a high-efficiency offense.
The Move – This is simply a move to pivot off another “roster-clogger” receiver (sell) and re-roll with Hardman. You likely will sell him under the same premise after free agency. If he is not a throw-in to a deal, this one is likely not going to get off the ground.
Conclusion – The WR market is all the haves and the have-nots. The position as a whole is extremely valuable, but the market is also very, very picky as to which players they want. The time is now to use that to your advantage, focusing on buying good wide receivers with efficient metrics and encouraging usage. Situations change and should be treated as very fluid season to season.
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
