2023 Coaching Changes: Sean Payton to the Denver Broncos

Jeff Smith

Savvy fantasy football managers focus on all positions of a football team. This includes the coaching staff. The off-season changes can hugely impact skill players’ production at certain positions. Each week we will look at one of the five coaches who have found new homes and examine the potential dynasty impact on the key members of that team.

Denver Broncos: Sean Payton

Look for Payton to pull his best Gordon Ramsay on Russell Wilson. Payton has already made it known that Wilson won’t be allowed to have his “people” at the facility. That includes his private quarterback coach, Jake Heaps. Thinking long term, it is probably for the best.

Payton is well-regarded around the league, and the Broncos gave up some serious draft capital to acquire his rights as a head coach, including a first-round pick this year (29th overall). This tells us all we need to know about what the front office thinks of Payton and who runs the show in this kitchen. Wilson will have to learn how to cook all over again in 2023, and after his performance last season, that is not a bad thing.

Quarterbacks

We all know who the quarterback is and will be for the foreseeable future, especially given Wilson’s contract and the amount the organization gave up to obtain his rights from the Seattle Seahawks. The big question is: can he return to his prime form from his days in the Emerald City? Only time will tell.

Russell Wilson

Everyone grew tired of Wilson’s act last year. We all know what he is capable of from both a real-life and fantasy perspective. He spent several years in the QB1 range but has seen his performance plummet over the past two seasons.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

We must ask ourselves if age is getting the best of the veteran quarterback. His legs used to be a big part of his game, but not so much these days. When he finished at his best for fantasy purposes, he would rush for nearly 500 yards every season.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Player Gamelog App.

The 34-year-old has also missed some time the past two seasons, which wasn’t the case when he regularly produced QB1 finishes for fantasy managers. It is challenging to believe Wilson finished as the QB16 in 2022, given how awful the offense sometimes looked. Nathaniel Hackett often seemed overwhelmed at times last year. Payton should bring more stability to the team, especially on the offensive side of the ball.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.

The chart above shows that there has been plenty of success at the quarterback position under Payton. However, many of those QB1 seasons were logged by Drew Brees. Kerry Collins did manage a QB9 finish with the New York Giants when Payton was the offensive coordinator. Can he do the same with Wilson? I tend to think so, and you can bet the front office hopes so, given their investments in the pair.

Running Backs

Injuries at the running back position forced the Denver Broncos to use a multitude of players at the position in 2022. The picture for the future is a bit clearer. Melvin Gordon is now in Kansas City celebrating a Super Bowl championship, and veterans Latavius Murray, Mike Boone, and Marlon Mack are all hitting free agency.

The backfield should belong to Javonte Wiliams in 2023, assuming he fully recovers from his torn ACL suffered in week four versus the Las Vegas Raiders. Chase Edmonds was acquired via trade and is signed through 2024, but he shouldn’t pose too much of a threat to Williams’s workload once healthy.

Javonte Williams

Second-year running back Williams was supposed to have his coming out party in 2022. Instead, the North Carolina grad watched most of the season from the sidelines. The season began well enough, with Williams ranking as the RB16 through three games. Then, disaster struck, and he suffered a torn ACL and LCL on October 2nd.

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Data Courtesy of Draft Buddy.

The Broncos’ lead back was doing more with less than many of those ranked ahead of him and was only lacking in the touchdown department early on. Those were sure to come. Williams averaged nearly five yards per carry and was heavily involved in the passing game. Unfortunately, we will never know what 2022 could have brought in fantasy production. Fortunately, he will bounce back and hopefully be even stronger in 2023.

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Data Courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.

You can see what the injury did to his ADP. It torpedoed into the mid-50s in December before rebounding somewhat this past January. There is considerable potential for value here. As you can see, the 22-year-old went off the board in the top 20 as late as September 2022. What is the reason for this optimism, you ask? Look below, and you will see.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.

New head coach Payton is an RB1-creating machine. Tiki Barber, Deuce McCallister, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara have all been able to produce in a Payton-led offense. There is no reason to think Williams won’t do the same. The time to buy is now.

Chase Edmonds

Edmonds finds himself on his third team in five years in the league. Traded from the Miami Dolphins at the deadline, he saw little work due to injuries of his own. Edmonds has always been more of a complementary back and has never had a lead role during his stint in the NFL. That is unlikely to change under Payton, especially with Williams on the mend.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

Edmonds has surprisingly been more effective than Williams on a per-touch basis. This doesn’t mean he will be supplanting him as the starter. We mention this because there is some potential value here due to Williams returning from injury and the potential for re-injury. You will want to roster Edmonds if you have shares of Williams in your leagues, and he could be a lotto ticket if the starter is slow to recover.

Wide Receivers

Saying the Denver Broncos wideouts underwhelmed in 2022 would be putting it mildly. They flat-out let us down for fantasy (and real-life) purposes. There is no denying that the talent is there. Will the quarterback come back to life, and can the new head coach fit them into his system?

Jerry Jeudy

Third-year wide receiver Jeudy was able to make something out of nothing in 2022, finishing as the WR22. The finish was primarily accomplished with smoke and mirrors. As is the case in golf, they don’t ask how; they ask how many. Jeudy spliced together the solid standing with a better-than-average five-game stretch to end the season.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Player Gamelog App.

It is also worth noting that the WR22 finish was the best in three seasons in the league for the Alabama grad. In prior years, Jeudy finished as the WR45 and WR85, respectively. It’s no coincidence that he had his best season with the best quarterback he has ever played with. The worst of Wilson is better than the best of Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Lock, or Brett Rypien. A look at the splits shows how marked the improvement was over past signal-callers.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Player Splits App.

The news gets even better for Jeudy and company. Head coaches Vic Fangio and Nathaniel Hackett are gone, and replacing them is the already-mentioned Payton. He has a solid history with his wideouts as he does with his quarterbacks and running backs.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.

Amani Toomer, Marques Colston, and Michael Thomas are a few players the offensive mastermind has turned into WR1s. In 2016, both Brandin Cooks and Thomas managed a WR1 finish. There is room for Jeudy to succeed here, and he is poised to have a career year in 2023. As is the case with Williams, there is value here. Fantasy managers have long-term memories and are scorned by the 2022 atrocity that was the Broncos offense.

Courtland Sutton

While Jeudy enjoyed a “career” year, Sutton had another down season. The veteran improved his WR45 finish by increasing to the WR43 in 2022 – not precisely the leaps and bounds we hoped for with Russell Wilson coming to town. Sutton has shown the ability to produce. Take a look at the 2019 season for proof.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Player Gamelog App.

It probably isn’t a coincidence that the SMU grad had his best season when Joe Flacco was at the helm for eight games. After all, Flacco is elite. We kid, of course. As with Jeudy, Sutton will have his best quarterback and coach combo since he came into the league. Things should improve for the 27-year-old in 2023. The offense can sustain two fantasy wideouts.

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Data Courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.

The cost of acquiring Sutton is the lowest we have seen in almost a year. Now is the time to pounce. As mentioned above, there is much value to be had in the Denver offense. The 6’4″ receiver has been durable throughout, only missing multiple games in 2020 when he suffered a season-ending injury in the first week of the season. Look for a bounce-back campaign in 2023 under Payton.

The Rest of the Bunch

Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, and possibly even Jalen Virgil could step up and show some promise but are currently off the dynasty radar. We know what Freddie Swain and Kendall Hinton are. Use those roster spots on other players who are younger and have the chance to prove themselves somewhere else.

Tight Ends

Like the three skill positions covered already, the tight end position has seen continued success in a Payton run offense. Players like Jeremy Shockey and Jimmy Graham have excelled under the 59-year-old coach. Even Jared Cook pulled off a TE7 finish in 2019.

Greg Dulcich

Rookie tight ends do not typically produce in the NFL. Someone forgot to give Dulcich that memo. The UCLA alum skyrocketed up the ADP boards in less than a year and is now being drafted in the top ten of the position.

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Data Courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.

All the rookie did once he hit the field in week six was finish as a TE1 in exactly half of his games en route to a TE28 finish despite playing in just ten games. Dulcich averaged 8.6 points per game, good for TE17. The arrow is pointing straight up for him, especially with Payton coaching the offense now.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

To put this in perspective, perennial highly drafted tight ends Mark Andrews and George Kittle managed a TE1 finish in 53.52% and 57.32% of their games, respectively. That’s not too shabby for the rookie. We mentioned the stellar history of Payton with the tight ends. Below is the visual proof and data.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.

During his stints in New York and New Orleans, Payton coached a TE1 finish out of his tight ends in six of 18 seasons, including one overall TE1 and two overall TE2s out of Jimmy Graham over three years from 2011 to 2014 (the coach was suspended in 2012 for “bounty gate”). All but three of the remaining seasons saw a finish between TE13 and TE24 for the position. That is pretty solid work.

Conclusion

This article is the third of five coaching changes we will cover and the first with multiple players worth targeting. The first two (Texans and Panthers) have few dynasty assets worth acquiring. The Broncos offense went from one to avoid to one to go all in on with just one hire. However, for any of this to work, Denver will have to invest in improving an offensive line that ranked 21st last season, according to Pro Football Focus. We all know football starts in the trenches. Unfortunately, they only have six picks and don’t select until pick number 68 due to all the draft capital given up to acquire the oft-discussed Wilson and Payton.

jeff smith
2023 Coaching Changes: Sean Payton to the Denver Broncos