Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Best Dynasty Landing Spot for Bijan Robinson?

Shane Manila

Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. This year I’ll be answering questions from you via Twitter, Discord, or the old-fashioned way (via email).

It doesn’t matter how you get me your questions, just make sure you get them to me and I’ll answer them every week.

Coming in for a landing

One of the truest sayings in all of dynasty fantasy football is to trust the talent over the situation. But, that should come with the caveat that landing spots can especially affect one position over others. While it is nice for a running back to land on a high-scoring roster with a strong offensive line, or for a wide receiver to land in a high-scoring offense with an elite quarterback, it’s not necessary for their success.

Chris Olave was drafted to the New Orleans Saints last year and his quarterbacks were Andy Dalton (12 games), and Jameis Winston (three games), but that didn’t stop him from putting up an excellent rookie season.

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While skill players can overcome team deficiencies, or see their fortunes take an upturn if they are traded to another team (i.e. A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill last off-season), quarterbacks’ fortunes are probably tied to landing spots more than any other position. If a franchise has a poor history of developing quarterbacks, like the New York Jets or Tennessee Titans, I am a little concerned when a quarterback is drafted by them.

The Jacksonville Jaguars would fall into the same bucket, but Trevor Lawrence managed to buck the trend. Two quarterbacks from this class’s fantasy prospects are most tied to landing spots, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. While Bryce Young has size concerns and CJ Stroud (outside of the College Football Playoffs) has questions surrounding his rushing upside, both players are locked and loaded no matter what franchise lands them.

Richardson and Levis are the players whose fantasy production is going to be most tied to their landing spot, and really outside of the Jets and maybe the Raiders, most of the likely landing spots give me a reason for hope. The Texans have finally committed to a head coach and have a ton of draft capital, the Colts just hired one of the best offensive minds in football in Shane Steichen, the Panthers just hired Frank Reich, and the rest of the available spots have adequate offensive pieces and franchise stability. Again though as we have seen, a situation can change quickly, as it did in Jacksonville, so I wouldn’t fade any player only based on who drafts them.

Buy now?

Before we delve into the specifics of Javonte Williams, let’s discuss when we should look to buy players that were in his circumstances from a high-level view. The opportune time to buy an injured player is immediately following their injury, especially so in the midst of point-scoring season. You can get a discount from managers still looking to compete and you can acquire that player at a reduced cost, as you can see from the trades below located using the DLF Dynasty Trade Finder, made immediately after Williams tore his ACL.

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Another time to attempt to acquire Williams would have been prior to the Broncos’ hiring of Sean Payton as their head coach. After Nathaniel Hackett was fired in-season, we knew that the Broncos would end up with a new head coach for 2023 and that no matter who that ended up being, it would be an improvement over Hackett, who was simply overmatched. Waiting until the Broncos hired a highly regarded head coach is generally a poor process, as Williams’ price has rebounded to pre-injury prices. Again, using the trade finder tool, there are very few trades where Williams’ was acquired at a discount.

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As you can see above, it is possible to acquire Williams at a reasonable price in some leagues, but overall his price has risen from any “buy low” window that once existed.

Let’s make a deal!

This trade question highlights how format and league settings have an impact on trades. This is a topic we covered in depth during the last Dynasty Trades in 5 live stream. A 10-team start 9, superflex league is especially shallow, regardless of bench sizes. With a league this shallow, impact players sometimes referred to as “hammers”, have an outsized impact on scoring.

Though @BigNasty_20 may think he has a weak roster, I disagree vehemently. He rosters two of the top six quarterbacks in dynasty, and just from a production aspect the QB1 and QB7 in PPG in 2023. He has the 1.01 giving him the opportunity to draft RB1 in dynasty – Bijan Robinson – or he could trade that pick for what is likely another top-ten dynasty asset.

He also already rosters Drake London, who is a top 12 dynasty wide receiver, and now has the ability to add Ja’Marr Chase to his roster, without having to give up the 1.01 to do so. Adding Chase to his roster would give our friend Nasty three of the top 17 scorers in fantasy last year. If Nasty is concerned with depth, he could also try to kick the 2023 1.08 to 2024 and get a first and second in return. Either way, this deal is an absolute smash. Go get Chase.

Where do we want to see Bijan Robinson?

Remember, landing spot is not the end-all-be-all for fantasy production. In fact, it means very little in the grand scheme of things. As discussed earlier, situations change, and what’s more important than the landing spot is draft capital. Instead of just saying where I hope Robinson lands, we can take a look at the most recent mock drafts available from NFL Mock Draft database, to get a realistic idea of where he might be drafted.

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As an Eagles fan, I would love to see Robinson in Philly, but Jalen Hurts steals too many rushing touchdowns and the team doesn’t use the running back in the passing attack for my liking. The Bucs just drafted Rachaad White in the third round last year, and though he’s not in Robinson’s stratosphere, he’s good enough to steal a non-significant amount of work from him.

I don’t trust Detroit knows how to use a bell cow, and I have the same fears with Buffalo. The Cowboys certainly do and could move on from both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard clearing the path for a massive workload. Baltimore could be intriguing as well if they decide to move on from Lamar Jackson, as he is an impediment to elite RB production.

Considering the above options, and lord help me as an Eagles fan, I think I would love to see Robinson as a Cowboy. He could see 25 opportunities per game in that offense. No matter where Robinson is drafted though, I don’t expect his production or value to be impacted even one iota.

shane manila
Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Best Dynasty Landing Spot for Bijan Robinson?