Dynasty League Football


Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Late 3rd

We offer up some potential moves you can make with your late third-round picks this year: draft or trade?

Mohamed Ibrahim

After everything is said and done, the 2023 rookie draft class might be one of the most historic in all of dynasty fantasy football. The biggest narrative going into the off-season is that the running back class is loaded with talent and the wide receiver group is one of the worst we’ve seen in a while. From a macro perspective, we might catch ourselves in a landscape where we can catch wide receivers at a value and talented running back prospects leak into the third round of rookie drafts.

Another thing we have to note is that we are looking at a very deep tight end class this year. With the position being very volatile in fantasy on a week-to-week basis, there’s a good chance we find good tight end prospects in the back half of rookie drafts.

When we try to predict what’s going to be there in the third round of rookie drafts this year, it’s easy to see just by looking at the player pool that there are going to be some interesting names who fall in the latter portion of drafts.





The hit rate in the later part of the third round isn’t very promising. Mitchell is currently the top dog out of this group. He posted three RB1 and four RB2 performances during his rookie season. Injuries have impacted his career as the 49ers brought in Christian McCaffrey to boost the offense.

Herbert is in a promising situation for the future. David Montgomery is likely gone from Chicago in free agency. Even if the team brings in another running back, he will still be the incumbent with an established role in the offense. Herbert was on a roll before he got injured with five double-digit fantasy performances in 2022.

Kmet is holding his own currently. He’s currently being selected as the TE15 in startup ADP. We could see his production increase if the offense starts to push the ball downfield more. If anything, he has proven that he can provide fantasy gamers with a couple of spike performances throughout the season.

There is a lot of intrigue with Kelley since he’s Austin Ekeler’s backup and on the high-powered Chargers offense. All he has delivered is speculative value without results considering he has rushed for 743 yards and 4 touchdowns in 37 games played.

Looking at the 2022 class, Thornton’s draft capital sticks out like a sore thumb. His deep speed might make him more valuable for actual football than fantasy. Strong and Haskins are mid-round backs with some positives that could transition to productions, but also hard negatives that could make them busts. Velus Jones has third-round draft capital but will turn 26 years old in May.


This year’s draft class is deep with talent at both running back and tight end. It appears by looking at DLF’s superflex rookie rankings, there will be some good players left on the board in the latter part of the third round. Dynasty gamers will also get to mine value at wide receiver this year since the running back position is stacked with talent.

Washington is a highly athletic tight-end prospect who is projected to garner second-round draft capital. If he gets drafted in a good situation, he will no longer be in the back half of the third round. Jarrett is a former five-star recruit who will impress everyone at the combine. Washington is a strong route runner who could carve out a role at the next level.

Then There’s Hutchinson who is a big physical wide receiver. He caught 107 balls for 1,171 yards and six touchdowns in 2022. Ibrahim could be the discount for the class. After tearing his Achilles in 2021, he came back to rush for 1,665 yards and 20 touchdowns. He was on track to becoming one of the top running backs in the 2021 draft class before the injury.


Let’s take a look at DLF Trade Analyzer and see what trades values we can find in the late third round of rookie drafts.


Trade options will rapidly decrease as we get deeper into the draft. At the 3.09 spot, you can catch some backup running backs with upside. White has a lot of upside, considering Josh Jacobs will be hitting the open market this off-season. There will also be some tight ends that you can trade for to help build your roster. Gesicki will be entering free agency this off-season. He’s one of the most athletic tight ends in the league and he could develop into a productive fantasy option if he lands in the right situation.


McKinnon is an older running back who is in the last leg of his career. He was very productive last season. Dynasty gamers might be able to land short-term production on the cheap. Metchie is a second-round rookie who has been forgotten about since he didn’t play his rookie season due to an injury. This could be a good time to snatch him up at a value. It’s hard to imagine Robinson at this price tag, but we are getting to the stage of his career where his value will start to reflect his age.


Bell had a very quiet rookie season but had a very productive college profile. You can now catch him a round cheaper compared to last year. Penny will be entering free agency and his athleticism could make him a valuable option in a committee somewhere. Jones isn’t the best quarterback in the league, but for the price, he can patch up your roster if you need a quarterback.


You can still catch young talented running backs with the 3.12 pick. Williams had a lot of hype last season. He didn’t live up to it, but there’s a chance after a healthy off-season that he can develop into a good role player. Damien Harris is leaving the Patriots in free agency which could allow Strong to see some extra opportunities in 2023. Knight surprised everyone last season and he could carve out a larger role while Breece Hall comes back from injury.


With this year’s draft class being deep with talent at the running back and tight end positions, dynasty gamers are going to catch plenty of values of the third round of rookie drafts. Keep in mind, at this point of the draft the odds of these players developing into productive assets for your dynasty team are not very good.

However, when you compare this year’s class compared to previous years, there are going to be better players to lean on. There will be a lot of good lottery tickets at running back. We will catch some good values at tight end. A lot of people are sleeping on the bottom tiers of wide receivers because the class isn’t as strong as in previous seasons.

My recommendation is to hold your picks and see what comes your way on draft day. You can try to kick the tires and negotiate for veteran players, but at their current price point, you might tap into more upside if you lean into the rookies. I’d be looking to stock up on running backs. I would lean on running backs who excel at catching passes out of the backfield since typically running backs in this part of rookie drafts tend to hold late-round draft capital. This is a deep tight end class. It might be better to take chances on tight ends in the later rounds than compared to the early rounds when the opportunity costs at the other positions are much greater.

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Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Late 3rd
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