Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: What Should We Do With Kyler Murray?
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. This year I’ll be answering questions from you via Twitter, Discord, or the old-fashioned way (via email).
It doesn’t matter how you get me your questions, just make sure you get them to me and I’ll answer them every week.
With the Eagles in the Super Bowl Sunday I need to tackle next week's @DLFootball mailbag earlier than usual. Give me all the dynasty fantasy football questions I can handle!
— Shanesays (@ShaneIsTheWorst) February 10, 2023
What should we do with Kyler Murray?
What should fantasy managers be doing with Kyler Murray?
— Keith Jackson (@dynasty_jax) February 11, 2023
Last week my good friend Russ Fisher looked at this question in the latest edition of his trading post article. Russ examined several scenarios with varying opinions based on the types of offers it would take to acquire Murray.
I will be more binary with my answer: Kyler Murray is a strong buy, or hold if he’s already on your roster. This goes for superflex leagues and in one-quarterback leagues. For two years I’ve advocated buying elite quarterbacks with high rushing upside in one-QB leagues. Players like Murray, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, and Lamar Jackson provide a positional advantage that is difficult to overcome with just one quarterback starting. In superflex leagues, it should go without saying you want one of the top ten quarterbacks, as the scoring significantly flattens as you descend the quarterback ranks.
Taking a look at the Dynasty Trade Finder shows some absolutely silly deals to acquire Murray. Each of the below deals is a steal.
Though the general consensus is that Murray has underachieved, an objective view shows there’s no reason to be worried about his production. He’s finished as the QB11, QB3, QB4, and QB7 in points per game in the first four seasons of his career. Take advantage of the community’s incorrect take on Murray and buy him anywhere you can.
Again using the Dynasty Trade Finder app, we see that Murray is not just obtainable (in and of itself a coup), but cheap.
“I’m bored, let’s trade”
What's your strategy for not making any boredom trades before the draft?
— Mike Kailing (@Mike_Kailing) February 11, 2023
Many a dynasty roster has been decimated by a manager making “bored trades”. It’s understandable when you consider we are in the quietest part of the dynasty season, after the points-scoring season and before our rookie drafts, that you would want to force some action. But if you keep in mind a couple of points, you should be able to contain yourself.
First, do you need to make this trade right now, would some variation of this same deal be available in 30 or 60 days? For example, is someone offering you an aging running back – Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon, or the like – for a rookie pick, let’s say the 2.01 (in a superflex league)? While the value might seem good for either player, knowing that the value of rookie picks will generally increase as we approach our rookie drafts means you could make this same deal in two months. A lot can happen in those two months, specifically to Sanders he is entering free agency, and in Mixon’s case the Bengals could cut him and save significant cap space. Or the Bengals could add a running back early in the NFL Draft, and force Mixon into a committee situation. Or, nothing at all could change in their situations. The point is there is too much unknown between now and rookie drafts to make a deal like this unless it’s a slam dunk type deal, think the 1.06 for Jonathan Taylor.
Second, if you do construct a deal or decide to entertain one, determine whether the trade matches your long-term process. If, for example, you traded Justin Herbert in the middle of last season for two 2023 rookie firsts, and a 2024 rookie first, would it make much sense to then trade three 2023 rookie firsts for Joe Burrow (or another quarterback in the Herbert tier)? Likely not. You likely traded Herbert because your roster was asset-poor, and weak outside of him, and you wanted to build draft capital to improve your roster long-term. Trust the process.
None of this is to say that you shouldn’t be trading at all during the quiet period. Just don’t make trades for the sake of making a trade.
Cornering the rookie market
Picks are liquid assets but is the next level strategy to control specific classes? Put another way, I want picks every year but if I can consolidate a few into one specific class, I then control both that draft as well as the prior season trade market.
— Tegan (@jtegan85) February 11, 2023
In general, holding multiple rookie picks in multiple classes is still my preferred methodology. I understand the concept of cornering a specific class, but as a whole, I think the community (myself included), fails to correctly identify “strong” vs. “weak” classes.
The 2022 class was dismissed as being a weak class, and in hindsight has turned into one of the most wide receiver-rich classes in some time. The 2023 class has been pointed to as a “strong” class for several seasons, but as the actual rookie draft approaches the class isn’t viewed as favorable, and as anyone who cornered the market on those picks in the hopes of using in trades can attest, the value of the picks themselves haven’t reached the peak we hoped for.
Another reason for diversification is that it allows you the ability to add to your roster in-season, without having to give up core assets. If you were to consolidate all of your picks into the 2023 class (at the expense of 2024 picks), and find yourself in a position to compete in 2023, you wouldn’t have anything outside of actual players to deal. This could leave you in a position of trading an injured core asset or being forced to deal a future building block at a loss if you want to make the title push.
This or that?
you taking TLaw or Herbert in a startup?
— eli smith (@Elismith248) February 11, 2023
Justin Herbert (QB5), and Trevor Lawrence (QB8), are both currently first-round startup picks in the latest DLF Superflex ADP. They were only separated by 0.8 in points per game scoring in 2022, and there is reason for optimism that both players can further increase their fantasy production.
The addition of Kellen Moore after firing Joe Lombardi as the offensive coordinator should hopefully lead to a more vertical passing attack for the Chargers, instead of the continual dump-offs to Austin Ekeler (170 receptions over the past two seasons). In 2022 Dak Prescott had an aya of 7.3 compared to Herbert’s 6.5, which was likely exacerbated by Mike Williams missing multiple games last year.
Lawrence bounced back from a dreadful rookie season under Urban Meyer and finished as the QB12 in his first season in Doug Pederson’s offense last year. The additions of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram helped turn the Jacksonville offense around last year, and Lawrence can now look forward to the addition of Calvin Ridley to his arsenal. If the Jaguars do retain Engram, that gives Lawrence a slew of weapons. He should also be expected to take a step forward in his second year in Pederson’s offense as just part of his normal maturation. The last time Pederson had a highly prized quarterback in their second season in his offense Carson Wentz turned in the QB2 season in 2017. Based on the addition of Ridley, and his continued development I prefer Lawrence over Herbert. But they are in the same tier and I wouldn’t add anything to Herbert to acquire Lawrence.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Pivoting Away from Jonathan Taylor - August 29, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Kyle Pitts, Brock Purdy and Roster Construction - August 22, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Late-Round Stashes and More - August 15, 2023
