Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Late 2nd
Rookie draft season is fast approaching! Everyone wants in on this exciting 2023 rookie class, whether your team is contending or rebuilding.
In this series, the DLF team will look at the rookie draft in groups of four to give a comprehensive view of those picks. We’ll do this by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats. Let’s jump into it!
Historical Consensus Picks
2022
- 2.09 – Alec Pierce, WR IND
- 2.10 – Trey McBride, TE ARI
- 2.11 – Zamir White, RB LV
- 2.12 – Jalen Tolbert, WR DAL
2021
- 2.09 – Dyami Brown, WR WAS
- 2.10 – Amari Rodgers, WR GB/HOU
- 2.11 – Kenneth Gainwell, RB PHI
- 2.12 – Pat Freiermuth, TE PIT
2020
- 2.09 – Bryan Edwards, WR LV/ATL
- 2.10 – AJ Dillon, RB GB
- 2.11 – Jalen Hurts, QB PHI
- 2.12 – Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
As you can see, these players wildly vary in value, ranging from a top-five superflex asset in Jalen Hurts to total washouts like Amari Rodgers, Dyami Brown, Jalen Tolbert, and Bryan Edwards. Outside of Hurts, only AJ Dillon and Pat Freiermuth are inside the top 100 in January’s DLF superflex ADP. Antonio Gibson showed some flashes in 2020 and 2021, but he lost his starting job to Brian Robinson and most of his dynasty value. Kenneth Gainwell has been Miles Sanders’s backup for the previous two seasons, but he hasn’t shown that much in that role.
Finally, Trey McBride, Zamir White, and Alec Pierce receive incomplete grades for their 2022 campaigns. I still have hope for McBride, as tight ends take a while to develop, and Pierce showed some signs of life as a rookie. In contrast, White is almost certainly a bust, given his lack of work this year, but he may get a value bump if Josh Jacobs leaves in free agency. Only Hurts gained significant value from his original rookie draft cost, although Freiermuth also went up a bit from his price. The remaining players have either held similar or lost value, making this value range seem like a bad bet.
2023 Potential Options
- Jalin Hyatt, WR Tennessee
- Rashee Rice, WR SMU
- Kendre Miller, RB TCU
- Kenny McIntosh, RB Georgia
- Cedric Tillman, WR Tennessee
- Chase Brown, RB Illinois
- Israel Abanikanda, RB Pittsburgh
- Roschon Johnson, RB Texas
In my previous article in this series, I discussed the options in the early second round. I said it was almost impossible to project who would fall into that value range this far away from the NFL Draft, as there’s still so much time for players to rise and fall. Of course, as difficult as it is to predict the early second round, projecting the late second round is even more challenging. Many of the players picked in the late second round in previous years were nowhere near this part of projected rookie drafts in early February.
However, looking at DLF’s superflex rookie rankings, there are some intriguing options around the 21st to 24th spots. Jalin Hyatt and Rashee Rice have received first-round buzz at times throughout the draft process so far, although I expect both players to go in the second round. Kenny McIntosh shined at the Senior Bowl, but that strong performance could vault his draft stock out of this range. But most notably, I feel like this draft class is one of the deepest in recent years. I expect even late second-rounders to be somewhat accomplished college players with decent draft capital, especially in a superflex format.
Trade Value
Let’s use the DLF Trade Analyzer to explore potential trade options for each pick!
2.09
- David Montgomery, RB CHI
- Isiah Pacheco, RB KC
- 2025 1st
Overall, these trade options are relatively appealing for the 2.09 rookie pick. Even though a 2025 first-rounder is two years away, I would wait that long for the potential upside of a first-round pick. To me, that offer would be a smash accept. As for the running backs, I prefer David Montgomery to Isiah Pacheco, but both are relatively fair trades for the 2.09. I’d lean Montgomery over the 2.09 and the 2.09 over Pacheco, though.
2.10
- James Cook, RB BUF
- Darren Waller, TE LV
- 2024 2nd + 2025 2nd
Once again, I really like the pivot options for the 2.10 pick. James Cook has a lot of upside in the Bills’ offense, especially if they let Devin Singletary walk in free agency. While Darren Waller has struggled over the past few seasons, the Raiders may add Aaron Rodgers via trade, revitalizing their offensive scheme. And finally, even though I love the 2023 rookie class, I would readily accept a 2024 2nd and 2025 2nd to move off the 2.10.
2.11
- Jimmy Garoppolo, QB SF
- David Njoku, TE CLE
- Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
It’s interesting to find Gibson among these potential pivots, as he was the 2.12 in 2020’s rookie ADP. However, he’s the only one of these players I wouldn’t prefer over the 2.11 right now. I fully expect Garoppolo to get a clear starting job in free agency this off-season, as many teams need quarterbacks. I also believe Njoku will bounce back in 2023 as Deshaun Watson acclimates back to the NFL. He signed a massive contract and averaged 4.9 receptions and 59.7 yards per game before his week seven injury.
2.12
- Khalil Herbert, RB CHI
- Brock Purdy, QB SF
- 2024 2nd + 2024 3rd
I prefer all three of these pivots over the 2.12. Herbert is a potential 2023 breakout if David Montgomery leaves in free agency, and his upside represents a better bet than the 2.12. Additionally, I think Purdy did enough to earn the inside track to the 49ers’ starting job in 2023, despite his UCL injury. Lastly, I’d prefer the 2024 2nd and 3rd, simply for the added value and the chance to move up in the second round next year.
Dynasty Recommendations
Unlike my previous article, I don’t seem to like the value of trading into the late second round of this year’s rookie drafts. While I believe this is a solid and deep rookie class, it seems like the pivot options of veteran players and future pick packages are even better. If dynasty managers are genuinely all in on this class, I will explore putting my late second-rounders on the block and seeing what I can get back in a trade.
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