2023 Off-Season Mock Drafts: How to Use Mock Drafts

John DiBari

Welcome back to another installment of my 2023 off-season mock draft series. I’ve looked at NFL mocks and discussed how potential landing spots could impact player value in dynasty, rookie mock drafts, and start-up mock drafts too. However, this time around, I’m not doing another mock. No mock in a mock draft article; how will that work?

Well, my plan here is to help you understand how to use mock drafts to your advantage. Getting information from various mocks does you no good if you can’t put the information to practical use. So I’m going to cover the best ways to use mock drafts to help you win on draft day and hopefully at the end of the season too.

General Trends

Keeping an eye on player trends should be a no-brainer, but as the saying goes – common sense ain’t common. So we’ll take a look at the top-24 rookies according to ADP last February – ADPbeing built primarily from mock drafts.

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Without context, this is just a chart, but I’m also going to show you what the final rookie ADP looked like in May following the NFL Draft when dynasty rookie drafts were in full swing. You’ll see a few players move quite a bit – and we’re only focusing on the top-24. Things can get even wilder in the later rounds.

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By comparing this four-month stretch from a year ago, hopefully, you can appreciate the usefulness of participating in mock drafts and paying attention to where players are selected.

Early mock drafts had Kyren Williams 11th overall with an average ADP of 13.10, and he was a first-round pick in 40% of drafts. By May, he fell nearly 24 spots and was 37th overall, falling into the fourth round in 50% of drafts. If you’re working with old data or outdated magazines for your draft prep, you might still think Williams was worthy of an early pick. Unfortunately, I’ve seen it happen multiple times where one or two owners are clearly working off of old information. Other big fallers included Isaiah Spiller (-10.8 spots), David Bell (-6.7), Justyn Ross (-17.4), Matt Corral (-14.9), and Malik Willis (-16.9).

But everything isn’t all doom and gloom. If one player falls, others must rise to fill that void. For example, Dameon Pierce went from 29.6 in February up to 17.5 in May. There isn’t data later than that, but I never saw him fall into the second round in any of my actual drafts. Based on my anecdotal, real-life experience, he was probably closer to 11th overall when the season kicked off. Other big upward movers included Alec Pierce (+24.3), Skyy Moore (+11.2), Jalen Tolbert (+6), Tyrion Davis-Price (+25), and Zamir White (+7). Alec Pierce and Davis-Price weren’t even being consistently drafted in five-round mocks in February, and both climbed into the late second as the start of the season drew nearer.

Participating in mock drafts and paying attention to others’ mocks gives you a good general idea of which direction players are heading. It is precisely the type of small detail that can give you an edge over your leaguemates year in and year out, helping you build a dynamic dynasty roster.

Where Ya Pickin’ and Who Ya Like

Mocks are especially important once your draft order is set. For example, once you know you’re picking eighth in your draft, and you can get into multiple mock drafts as the eighth pick, you can get an excellent idea of who might fall to you and who you might have to reach for.

Again, looking back at last May’s ADP, let’s imagine you were picking eighth. George Pickens never went before pick nine, so you can confidently assume he’d be there for you when you’re on the clock. Skyy Moore, however, had been taken sixth a number of times, so there is no guarantee he’d be there for you. If Pickens was “your guy,” then you must take him with 1.08 because he never fell anywhere near the 2.08 range. It’s essential to keep this in mind as you’ll have to reach for “your guys” on occasion – and other times, you should draft players when they become a value at ADP. For example, look at Wan’Dale Robinson. He went as high as 11 in one draft and, on average, was the 19th player selected, but in one of the mocks, he fell to the 30th pick. Even if you didn’t like Robinson, being aware of players’ current values is crucial, so you know when you’re getting a deal on a player.

One more thing to keep in mind is trade values based on the players still on the board. Knowing that Robinson had a much higher ADP in mocks you participated in, if you’re on the clock at 30 (3.06) and he’s still there, other owners in your league also know he’s there, and he becomes a steal at that point. You can extract maximum value from your on-the-clock pick as others try to jockey for position to come get the player who is falling. Milk this in trades. I’ll even announce in group chats or message boards what players are still available when I’m trying to move a pick.

Early Drafters

Most leagues don’t draft until after the NFL Draft. That small buffer from now until then can be important, and it goes without saying the later you draft, the more information you have access to. But for those few brave souls who start their drafts early, there are some advantages before you even know which teams players will be playing for. First of all, if you’ve been participating in mocks in January and February while everyone has been sitting on their thumbs, you’ll be lightyears ahead of your leaguemates in terms of preparation. You can never be too prepared. Just looking at the results from the ten mock drafts used to build the ADP in February of 2022, you’ll start to see some patterns emerging.

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I intentionally omitted the names to help keep any of your preconceived biases out of the way. But when you simply look at the results of the ten earliest mock drafts, you can get an early glimpse into which direction players are headed. Even a tiny move, say someone was going 29, 26, and 27 in the first three mocks but then went 19, 28, and 15 in the final three mocks- you end up with Christian Watson, who was WR13 at the time in early drafts. Watson ended up climbing up to 8.9 when the season began, good enough for WR7 among rookies, and you were able to spot the upward trajectory very early if you were looking for it in your mock drafts.

Not Just Fantasy

One other type of mock draft that occasionally gets overlooked for fantasy purposes is NFL mock drafts. A quick Google search for NFL mock drafts will bring you nearly one-trillion results (well, maybe not that many, but close). In my first edition of this series, I included a link to several NFL mocks and how to use them to start building player rankings. DLF’s very own Shane P. Hallam does his own NFL mock draft, and he is one of the few who I have seen do a complete seven-round draft. Of course, it’s all a guessing game at this point, but draft capital usually matters.

If you think Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim should be a day-two draft pick and have him ranked as such in your rankings, seeing where the NFL heads view him is important. Seeing that Hallam has him as pick 234 in the middle of the seventh round, it might be time for you to rethink your rankings. Recent history might tell us that draft capital might not be as big a deal for running backs as other positions. Still, the point remains, NFL draftniks tend to have their finger on the pulse of the NFL more than most, so it is essential to see where players are projected to land. Hallam has Tennessee’s Jaylin Hyatt as a first-round pick, and NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein has Hyatt as the first wide receiver selected, going 12th overall to Houston. Read the tea leaves – it looks like we’re all probably too low on Hyatt. Much like comparing the dynasty mock drafts, comparing the trends in the NFL mocks will help give you an early idea of who is trending in which direction in the eyes of NFL folks.

Thanks for coming back and checking out another edition of this series. I promise next week, we’ll be back to completing actual mock drafts and discussing the results, but I hope this edition helped give you some insight into tips and tricks on how you can use off-season mock drafts to prepare you for your actual drafts. See you next week!

john dibari
2023 Off-Season Mock Drafts: How to Use Mock Drafts