2023 Coaching Changes: DeMeco Ryans to the Houston Texans
Savvy fantasy football managers focus on all positions of a football team. This includes the coaching staff. The off-season changes can hugely impact skill players’ production at certain positions. Each week we will look at one of the five coaches who have found new homes and examine the potential dynasty impact on the key members of that team.
Houston Texans: DeMeco Ryans
Talk about déjà vu. We feel like we have been here before. Wait a second. We have. This was just discussed last season. Gone is Lovie Smith after just one year (shocker), and hired in his stead is yet another defensive-minded coach in Ryans.
The Texans need help in all three phases. Heck, they can’t even secure the number one pick in the draft properly. But seriously, kudos to Smith and the players for giving it their all in week 18, sending the first pick to Smith’s former team. That is true professionalism but talk about irony and a twist of good fortune for another team in need of an infusion of talent, the Chicago Bears.
Quarterback
Quarterback is a position sure to be addressed early. The Texans played musical chairs down the stretch with Davis Mills, Kyle Allen, and even Jeff Driskel taking snaps, sometimes alternating in game. You know the old expression, if you have two (or three) quarterbacks, you really don’t have one. Such was the case in Houston in 2022.
Davis Mills
Mills started 15 games last season and has started 26 of 28 contests over the past two seasons. The Stanford grad clearly isn’t the quarterback of the future for the franchise, and they likely will trade up one spot with the aforementioned Bears to select their future quarterback. That should be Bryce Young or CJ Stroud. Regardless of who they choose, they will be an upgrade over the incumbent signal-caller.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Game Log App.
You could point to the offensive scheme or lack of talent as the root of the struggles for Mills, but the fact remains he just has not performed, as evidenced by the QB29 and QB21 finishes during his first two seasons in the league. It is not as if Kyle Allen was any better.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Game Log App.
Whomever the front office decides to draft in April will be eons more athletic and talented than anyone the Texans have had run the offense since Deshaun Watson pre-scandal. Watson was a top-five QB his last three years in Houston, proving that it can be done with little talent surrounding the position.
Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
The offensive coordinator the new head coach chooses to run his offense will also determine what the offense may look like in 2023. Several candidates have emerged, including former 49ers passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik and Bengals receivers coach Troy Walters. Both teams run prolific offenses, so they would be welcome schemes to pair up with the new signal-caller, whichever stud that may be.
Running Back
The backfield in Houston started the year out much improved, mainly due to the emergence of rookie Dameon Pierce in training camp. More on him in a bit. In 2021, the Texans finished last in every statistical team rushing category. Eight different running backs logged a rushing attempt that season. Alas, Houston could only finish 31st in the league in 2022 after Pierce went down for the year after a week 14 injury. On the bright side, they only had to use five different running backs last season.
Dameon Pierce
Pierce showed promise just three days into camp and ran away with the job from free agent acquisitions Marlon Mack and Dare Ogunbowale. Drafted in the fourth round out of Florida, Pierce was well on his way past the century mark in rushing yards before suffering a season-ending ankle injury in a loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Game Log App.
The rookie still managed a solid RB25 finish for the year, and if Ryans brings anything with him from the San Francisco offensive mindset, then the sky could be the limit for Pierce in 2023. We all know how Kyle Shanahan likes to use his running backs.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
The Gator grad proved he could also be used in the passing game, averaging 11.4 yards per reception and scoring three touchdowns through the air during his senior season in Gainsville. The opportunity exists for him to be a three-down back in a league that rarely sees that these days. This only increases his value to dynasty owners.
Data Courtesy of Over the Cap.
Houston has way too many other needs to invest draft capital in the running back position, and you can see from the roster construction that there is no one on the team now to threaten Pierce even a little bit. Here is an asset that appears safe to invest in. We won’t bother breaking down the rest of the depth chart individually based on the talent displayed in the chart above. We know what they are.
Wide Receiver
The wide receiver room has some promise, even if Brandin Cooks moves on via trade. The organization has some young talent, and a top-tier quarterback could unlock the potential. Nico Collins, John Metchie III, and maybe even Amari Rodgers, who was a third-round draft pick of the Green Bay Packers in 2021, can prove worthy of his draft capital.
Brandin Cooks
The biggest question with Cooks is whether he can return to form entering his age-30 season. The veteran wideout finished as the WR19 in PPR formats in 2021 but played just 13 games in 2022 en route to a WR49 finish. Poor quarterback play and the offensive scheme could certainly be blamed. We have seen what the veteran can do with a talented quarterback.
Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Player Data App.
The only two seasons that the former Rams receiver did not finish as a WR2 or better were the rookie season of 2014 and again in 2019 when Jared Goff was the starting quarterback and had a season to forget. Cooks was wildly successful while with both New England and New Orleans. The first two seasons in Houston had been fruitful as well.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Game Log App.
There were some flashes and indications that the Oregon State alum could still do it. Pair him up with a high-end quarterback, and we could easily see him returning to WR2 territory in 2023. There will be a competition for targets with the young fellows mentioned above that we will discuss next, so we can’t anoint him the WR1 in Houston just yet.
Nico Collins
Collins followed up his rookie WR84 finish with an equally disappointing WR78 ending. The Michigan grad cannot seem to stay healthy and played in just ten games in 2022. He has elite speed and tested well at the combine. His speed score him in the 95th percentile of participants over the past 20 years. But what good is that speed if you aren’t on the field to threaten the defense with it and don’t have a quarterback to get you the ball accurately? Those are hypothetical questions, of course.
Courtesy of DLF Player Game Log App.
The potential appears to be there. Collins was good for double-digit points almost every time he went out after week nine and had a season-high 15.9 PPR points against a good New York Giants defense. He did nearly as well with his opportunities as his fellow teammate Cooks.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
Still only 24 years old when the season kicks off, Collins should be given more time due to his third-round draft capital and lack of time on the field due to injury. As with Cooks, a quarterback could be the key to unlocking him. The draft and training camp will answer many of the questions about this offense—that and the offensive coordinator that is hired.
John Metchie
Metchie is the biggest unknown and best story on the Texans’ roster. All indications are that he is recovering well from Leukemia and could be ready for football activities before camp in July and August. The 44th overall pick in the 2022 draft never got to see the field during his rookie season. That is unfortunate. The former national champion had a junior year worth noting.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
The most significant advantage Metchie may have over his teammates is his ability to play multiple receiver spots and take what is schemed open for him. The fact that he is smallish for a receiver should be disregarded at this point due to what former teammate DeVonta Smith has accomplished at this level, weighing nearly 30 pounds left. Metchie is inexpensive to acquire in dynasty leagues and has perhaps the most upside of the receiving group.
Tight End
The tight end position is due for a makeover in Houston. Brevin Jordan is the youngest and probably the most talented on the roster, but he had only 14 catches on 28 targets in 2022. At 22 years old, he still has tons of time to learn the position, but the front office may be growing weary of waiting for him to prove his worth and invest in someone in the draft or via free agency. Only one other tight end on the team under contract is younger than 29, and that is a chap named Teagan Quitoriano. Don’t feel bad. I had to look him up too. This position should be avoided in dynasty formats unless the front office splurges on Michael Maher or rolls the dice on small school standout Tucker Kraft.
Conclusion
The Houston organization has been a mess for years, but this hire could be a home run. Ryans is respected throughout the league and could bring some legitimacy back to the Texans. It is difficult to peg what the team will look like going forward with so many unknowns (quarterback, offensive coordinator, etc.), but there are some hidden gems to be found on this offense. It would be best to try to obtain some of those assets now, with Metchie being the best gamble of the bunch.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
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